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Author Topic: We'll be back to $13-14 by end of week. Know how I know?  (Read 3679 times)
OgNasty
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August 05, 2011, 02:56:02 PM
 #41

P.S. If you have a 401k or something like that, you are not an investor, you are a follower.

Foolish comment of the day.  What investor doesn't have a 401k?  One without a job would be my only guess...  The investors I know all have 401k or 403b, IRA, Roth IRA, brokerage & money market accounts...

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EconomicOracle
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August 05, 2011, 03:30:18 PM
 #42

skyhigh, the reason I'm saying the issue is minor is that while there has been 50%+ inflation, we've had a 1000%+ inflation of new Bitcoin adopters. There is no reason to be so skeptical as to assume we won't have growth during the next 6 months for example. With the adoption growth we've had, the price is rightfully much higher than it was in the past. How high it's "supposed to be" no one knows, it's obvious it isn't $1 or $30 but something in between.

The price should be around $13-$14 right now to sustain the level of growth we've had so far but clearly we're in a slump with low adoption rates and a ton of bad news. So, basically the main factor to take into account regarding inflation is the adoption rate and the other factor is how much miners believe in Bitcoin or how much they can afford to save.

In the current situation I'd say the price is not going to go below $9, perhaps not even below $10. More bad news is required for another slump like that. The demand for cheap coins at the $9-$11 range is quite decent and many think that price is lowish for selling.

Where it will go from here depends on many things, as I already said in my last post. It might stay here for a while but I don't think so. With all the bad news people will show strong support for good news if they come and if good news come, there will at least be a small rally. With lots of good news we will see a very strong rally. But that's all speculation, we might see quiet stagnation and more occasional bad news and the price will not go up, might even go down.

It's also true that for the functionality of Bitcoin it doesn't matter what the price is, but I personally care about Bitcoin in many different ways, as a miner, as an investor, as a supporter and in the future probably as a merchant as well. For some of my interests the price does matter.

"Looks like Bitcoin is blasting off again!" - MtGoX

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Edit: Oops. Just fixed a typo. It should be GO (like GO TEAM!) and not GOOB
Edit2: Just checked the dictionary and goob is not a word
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August 05, 2011, 03:42:18 PM
 #43

P.S. If you have a 401k or something like that, you are not an investor, you are a follower.

Foolish comment of the day.  What investor doesn't have a 401k?  One without a job would be my only guess...  The investors I know all have 401k or 403b, IRA, Roth IRA, brokerage & money market accounts...
Most people have no idea what they are investing in with their 401k. A guy in suit at work handed them a form and they picked a few menu items.  I'm not saying that a 401k has no merit as an investment vehicle, but if you don't know what specific companies your managers are investing your money in then don't fool yourself into thinking your Gordon Gecko.

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August 05, 2011, 03:59:16 PM
 #44

P.S. If you have a 401k or something like that, you are not an investor, you are a follower.

Foolish comment of the day.  What investor doesn't have a 401k?  One without a job would be my only guess...  The investors I know all have 401k or 403b, IRA, Roth IRA, brokerage & money market accounts...
Most people have no idea what they are investing in with their 401k. A guy in suit at work handed them a form and they picked a few menu items.  I'm not saying that a 401k has no merit as an investment vehicle, but if you don't know what specific companies your managers are investing your money in then don't fool yourself into thinking your Gordon Gecko.


compared to a pension, a 401k/roth ira is a scam. under ronald reagan nearly every worker had a pension. reagan and the wall street guys changed that. now less than 15% of workers have a pension and are stuck with someone else managing their entire livelihood... bring back the pension. but that will only happen with increased union membership and as long as republicans and center/right democrats are in office there wont be more pensions or unions there will be less stomped out 1 by 1. my grandparents wouldnt be alive without their pensions or would probably be eating dog food.


no sane person would  pick a 401k over a pension without being completely ignorant. You can have money for the rest of your life at a set ammount that only you manage, or you cvan have money locked away that you cant ever control...
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August 05, 2011, 05:19:21 PM
 #45

P.S. If you have a 401k or something like that, you are not an investor, you are a follower.

Foolish comment of the day.  What investor doesn't have a 401k?  One without a job would be my only guess...  The investors I know all have 401k or 403b, IRA, Roth IRA, brokerage & money market accounts...
Most people have no idea what they are investing in with their 401k. A guy in suit at work handed them a form and they picked a few menu items.  I'm not saying that a 401k has no merit as an investment vehicle, but if you don't know what specific companies your managers are investing your money in then don't fool yourself into thinking your Gordon Gecko.


compared to a pension, a 401k/roth ira is a scam. under ronald reagan nearly every worker had a pension. reagan and the wall street guys changed that. now less than 15% of workers have a pension and are stuck with someone else managing their entire livelihood... bring back the pension. but that will only happen with increased union membership and as long as republicans and center/right democrats are in office there wont be more pensions or unions there will be less stomped out 1 by 1. my grandparents wouldnt be alive without their pensions or would probably be eating dog food.


no sane person would  pick a 401k over a pension without being completely ignorant. You can have money for the rest of your life at a set ammount that only you manage, or you cvan have money locked away that you cant ever control...
Ugh, pensions and unions.  Blegh, ugh, blegh.  Talk about an economy killer.

Anyway, let me get this straight.  Relying on a 401k that you can spread across MANY different mutual funds, depending on their performance, thus encouraging the people who are managing your money to make sure it performs well, is worse than putting all your eggs in one basket via a pension?  What happens if the company who is handing out the pension goes under?  Then you have NOTHING.

Sorry for being "completely ignorant", but I would 10 times rather have a 401k than rely on ANY company to still be around to give me a pension 40 years from now.
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August 05, 2011, 05:41:03 PM
 #46


no sane person would  pick a 401k over a pension without being completely ignorant. You can have money for the rest of your life at a set ammount that only you manage, or you cvan have money locked away that you cant ever control...

As I understand it a pension requires working at the same company for a very, very long time.  That negates the ability to shop around if you're valuable and leaves you vulnerable to layoffs if you are not.  In my industry staying at one job for over 2 years results in an ever increasing earnings hit, and being independent can more than double earnings.

Pension plans are managed by the exact same people managing 401ks.  They're typically invested in the same stocks, bonds, etc as other mutual funds focusing on low risk and asset preservation over growth.

And finally, most of my 401ks have been rolled over into IRAs at an institution where I can trade the funds myself.

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August 05, 2011, 09:55:02 PM
 #47

skyhigh, the reason I'm saying the issue is minor is that while there has been 50%+ inflation, we've had a 1000%+ inflation of new Bitcoin adopters. There is no reason to be so skeptical as to assume we won't have growth during the next 6 months for example. With the adoption growth we've had, the price is rightfully much higher than it was in the past. How high it's "supposed to be" no one knows, it's obvious it isn't $1 or $30 but something in between.

The price should be around $13-$14 right now to sustain the level of growth we've had so far but clearly we're in a slump with low adoption rates and a ton of bad news. So, basically the main factor to take into account regarding inflation is the adoption rate and the other factor is how much miners believe in Bitcoin or how much they can afford to save.

In the current situation I'd say the price is not going to go below $9, perhaps not even below $10. More bad news is required for another slump like that. The demand for cheap coins at the $9-$11 range is quite decent and many think that price is lowish for selling.

Where it will go from here depends on many things, as I already said in my last post. It might stay here for a while but I don't think so. With all the bad news people will show strong support for good news if they come and if good news come, there will at least be a small rally. With lots of good news we will see a very strong rally. But that's all speculation, we might see quiet stagnation and more occasional bad news and the price will not go up, might even go down.

It's also true that for the functionality of Bitcoin it doesn't matter what the price is, but I personally care about Bitcoin in many different ways, as a miner, as an investor, as a supporter and in the future probably as a merchant as well. For some of my interests the price does matter.

I don't know what I should tell you. So I will just say, yes you are right and I am wrong.  I guess you know better then me, price should be around $13-14. Ignorance is a bliss.
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