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Question: What will happen if China bans Bitcoin exchanges and/or BTC?  (Voting closed: December 21, 2013, 07:02:32 PM)
Market drops <25% - money flows to other exchanges - 18 (18.8%)
Market drops <50% - but still recovers quickly - 24 (25%)
Market drops >50% - ignites moderate term bear market - 29 (30.2%)
Market drops >50% - ignites long term bear market - 9 (9.4%)
Market drops >75% - ignites serious questions about Bitcions future - 16 (16.7%)
Total Voters: 96

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Author Topic: Predictions if Chinese Government Changes Their Stance In Next 6 Months  (Read 2346 times)
windjc
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November 21, 2013, 07:02:32 PM
 #1

8 months ago my biggest bearish concern was U.S. government and financial regulators.

Today its the Chinese government.

While signs suggest the Chinese government is at least not bearish on BTC, we have to assume that we really don't know and they could at any time put a halt to the Chinese exchanges and even potentially ban BTC.

China is one of the 2 BTC superpowers at this moment. If it goes away in the next 6 months, what happens to BTC?

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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November 21, 2013, 07:25:38 PM
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While the inner workings and musing of the Chinese elite are always hidden, and their agenda strange, we do have some evidence that Bitcoin is being left alone by some implicit approval of the elites.  Namely that a couple of major Chinese websites, state operations one and all, are openly accepting bitcoins for services and products.  They even have a sound reason for doing it.  Since the Yaun isn't an international reserve currency, and they can't really snuff it out anyway, open support for Bitcoin could undermine the US dollar's hedgemony without actually breaking the currency for which they have so much invested, and perhaps give the Chinese an edge in some emerging markets for which there is evidence that bitcoins are being used as a System D (grey market) international currency.  Particularly in resource rich regions of Africa.  The Chinese elite aren't stupid, so they tend to know when something is inevitable; certainly better than most Western elected politicos. 

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
fred1111
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November 21, 2013, 07:28:10 PM
 #3

They are not going to ban bictoin now because they don't believe in bitcoin. Once bitcoin reaches 10-100k$, they will start to act.

Here is what the central bank vice governor had to say:

http://stock.sohu.com/20131122/n390574896.shtml (use google translate)
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November 21, 2013, 07:32:58 PM
 #4

They are not going to ban bictoin now because they don't believe in bitcoin. Once bitcoin reaches 10-100k$, they will start to act.

Here is what the central bank vice governor had to say:

http://stock.sohu.com/20131122/n390574896.shtml (use google translate)

I don't have access to google translate at work.  Do you mind a summary?

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
accord01
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November 21, 2013, 07:39:02 PM
 #5

I was thinking the same thing until I found out that btc China just received several million dollar investments from Chinese investors who have good ties to government down there.
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November 21, 2013, 07:40:31 PM
 #6

They are not going to ban bictoin now because they don't believe in bitcoin. Once bitcoin reaches 10-100k$, they will start to act.

Here is what the central bank vice governor had to say:

http://stock.sohu.com/20131122/n390574896.shtml (use google translate)

Interesting, thanks for link, heres a Google Translate copy paste (sorry for bad formatting, don't have time to fix Sad ):

Quote
Central bank vice governor responded Bitcoin hot: characteristic, enlightening but does not recognize its legitimacy
Trainee reporter Zhang Yueguang   intern reporter Zhang Shuo Beijing reported   Rounds bitcoin finally ushered in the regulatory position.   November 20, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang's first talk in a forum bitcoin. Yi Gang said that from the perspective of the People's Bank, near impossible to recognize the legitimacy of Bitcoin. But he also believes that bitcoin transaction as a sale and purchase behavior on the Internet, ordinary people have the freedom to participate. In addition, Yi Gang also noted bitcoin "very characteristic", with "inspiring", individuals will remain long-term concern.   Yi Gang stand behind the Bitcoin market in recent weeks China's rapid hot from the three largest bitcoin trading platform BTC China, okcoin and Fire credits displayed network data, in November before the 20th day average bitcoin trading volume has more than doubled over the same period the previous month growth.   November 19, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a letter to the U.S. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee held a hearing, said the Fed has no right under the direct supervision of virtual currency that bitcoins and other virtual currencies "may have long-term future," and Affirming "cautious blessing" attitude. Affected by this, the day Bitcoin currency topped 8,000 yuan.   Currency "roller coaster" caused trading volume surged   into November, bitcoin currency began to dramatic changes. November 1, the major trading platforms bitcoin given a purchase price of about 1,250 yuan Bitcoin, and the 10th this figure rose to 2,000 yuan in the vicinity. More exaggerated, 18, ​​19, two days, bitcoin currency starts rising from 3,000 yuan, and reached its highest point in the 19th after the 8000 yuan down quickly, the day to close at 5,200 yuan. The 20th bitcoins continue to decline, as of press time reporter, the currency basically stable at around 4,300 yuan.   Rapid ups and downs in the Bitcoin currency, while the volume of transactions each trading platform also risen sharply. Largest trading platform BTC China October average daily trading volume of 18,474.2 Bitcoin, and November 20, 2011 before the data is 56,273.3, up 204.6 percent. 18,19,20 three days, the average daily trading volume of 96,373.2 platform bitcoin, which is a breakthrough in the 19th day of a 10-million mark.   In addition, the trading volume came in second, three of okcoin and Fire currency net growth even more shocking. okcoin and Fire credits online daily average trading volume of only 6036.84 and 4943.16 bitcoins, these two figures increased to 30,645 this month and 33699.7, an increase of 407.6% and 581.7%, and the 19th volume of transactions also two platforms have exceeded 60,000 bitcoins.   According to the domestic top ten trading platform published data, the 19th domestic bitcoin total market trading volume of about 250,000 bitcoins, even according to the day's closing price of 5200 yuan currency to calculate the date of the transaction amount is also more than 1.3 billion.   Reporters also learned from 8,000 yuan in bitcoin began to decline after the peak, the platform now been found in the case of centralized mention, investors show some sidelines. Currency network, for example by fire, the 19th volume of withdrawals platform more than 30 million yuan, 20 and 21 days reached 40 million yuan.   I hope the introduction of regulated trading platforms   mentioned Yi Gang's statement about bitcoin, told reporters that a number of platforms is good news for investors. Preceding a platform CEO believes that the People's Bank does not recognize the legal status of Bitcoins is expected, but Yi Gang said Bitcoin is an Internet trading freedom, does not directly interfere with the description of bitcoins in China's development has been the tacit approval of the regulatory authorities.   On the other hand, recently Bernanke's statement also showed similar views. Bernanke said the Fed is only entitled to manage its distribution, liquidation or assignment of physical currency products, and regulatory banking institutions and have no rights under the direct supervision of virtual currency. Therefore, the Fed temporarily not formulated for bitcoin regulatory scheme should provide them with a relatively free market. But one day might be able to "promote a faster, safer and more efficient payment system formed."   But the above platforms CEO said that for the trading platform, the central bank recently no regulatory bitcoin not his wish. As Bitcoin trading platform opened lower threshold, as long as the introduction of third-party payment site erection can be realized transactions, there is no specific regulatory bodies involved, as the hot bitcoin will emerge a large number of competitors. More importantly, because Bitcoin is a virtual currency based on market confidence, once densely adverse trading platform, "foot" and other phenomena, currency Bitcoin will do great damage, and thus undermine the entire market order.   He further introduced, in addition to trading platforms, but also spawned a number of domestic bitcoin-based downstream industries such as bitcoin gaming etc. These formats have actually exceeded the scope of financial regulation, but great risks to participants . In fact, BTC China market analysis on the pages with bitcoin betting sites advertising. According to this site, data show that the current players have been involved in bets over 70,000 bitcoins. (Edit ZhaoPing)   Author: Zhangyue Guang Zhang Shuo
fred1111
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November 21, 2013, 07:43:59 PM
 #7

I was thinking the same thing until I found out that btc China just received several million dollar investments from Chinese investors who have good ties to government down there.
This certainly helps, but what happens once the chinese start gambling or doing other illegal things with bitcoin, on a large scale?
theonewhowaskazu
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November 22, 2013, 02:52:00 AM
 #8

I was thinking the same thing until I found out that btc China just received several million dollar investments from Chinese investors who have good ties to government down there.
This certainly helps, but what happens once the chinese start gambling or doing other illegal things with bitcoin, on a large scale?
Then those things stop being illegal, very conveniently.

MoonShadow
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November 22, 2013, 03:03:21 AM
 #9

I was thinking the same thing until I found out that btc China just received several million dollar investments from Chinese investors who have good ties to government down there.
This certainly helps, but what happens once the chinese start gambling or doing other illegal things with bitcoin, on a large scale?
Then those things stop being illegal, very conveniently.

Yes, very conveniently.  Particularly in the middle kingdom, where gambling has been officially illegal for most of it's history; but has never really even been curtailed during that entire time.  The Chinese don't really have a moral compunction with gambling, like we decendents of Christiandom often do.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
oakpacific
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November 22, 2013, 04:20:34 AM
 #10

They are not going to ban bictoin now because they don't believe in bitcoin. Once bitcoin reaches 10-100k$, they will start to act.

Here is what the central bank vice governor had to say:

http://stock.sohu.com/20131122/n390574896.shtml (use google translate)

Interesting, thanks for link, heres a Google Translate copy paste (sorry for bad formatting, don't have time to fix Sad ):

Quote
Central bank vice governor responded Bitcoin hot: characteristic, enlightening but does not recognize its legitimacy
Trainee reporter Zhang Yueguang   intern reporter Zhang Shuo Beijing reported   Rounds bitcoin finally ushered in the regulatory position.   November 20, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang's first talk in a forum bitcoin. Yi Gang said that from the perspective of the People's Bank, near impossible to recognize the legitimacy of Bitcoin. But he also believes that bitcoin transaction as a sale and purchase behavior on the Internet, ordinary people have the freedom to participate. In addition, Yi Gang also noted bitcoin "very characteristic", with "inspiring", individuals will remain long-term concern.   Yi Gang stand behind the Bitcoin market in recent weeks China's rapid hot from the three largest bitcoin trading platform BTC China, okcoin and Fire credits displayed network data, in November before the 20th day average bitcoin trading volume has more than doubled over the same period the previous month growth.   November 19, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a letter to the U.S. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee held a hearing, said the Fed has no right under the direct supervision of virtual currency that bitcoins and other virtual currencies "may have long-term future," and Affirming "cautious blessing" attitude. Affected by this, the day Bitcoin currency topped 8,000 yuan.   Currency "roller coaster" caused trading volume surged   into November, bitcoin currency began to dramatic changes. November 1, the major trading platforms bitcoin given a purchase price of about 1,250 yuan Bitcoin, and the 10th this figure rose to 2,000 yuan in the vicinity. More exaggerated, 18, ​​19, two days, bitcoin currency starts rising from 3,000 yuan, and reached its highest point in the 19th after the 8000 yuan down quickly, the day to close at 5,200 yuan. The 20th bitcoins continue to decline, as of press time reporter, the currency basically stable at around 4,300 yuan.   Rapid ups and downs in the Bitcoin currency, while the volume of transactions each trading platform also risen sharply. Largest trading platform BTC China October average daily trading volume of 18,474.2 Bitcoin, and November 20, 2011 before the data is 56,273.3, up 204.6 percent. 18,19,20 three days, the average daily trading volume of 96,373.2 platform bitcoin, which is a breakthrough in the 19th day of a 10-million mark.   In addition, the trading volume came in second, three of okcoin and Fire currency net growth even more shocking. okcoin and Fire credits online daily average trading volume of only 6036.84 and 4943.16 bitcoins, these two figures increased to 30,645 this month and 33699.7, an increase of 407.6% and 581.7%, and the 19th volume of transactions also two platforms have exceeded 60,000 bitcoins.   According to the domestic top ten trading platform published data, the 19th domestic bitcoin total market trading volume of about 250,000 bitcoins, even according to the day's closing price of 5200 yuan currency to calculate the date of the transaction amount is also more than 1.3 billion.   Reporters also learned from 8,000 yuan in bitcoin began to decline after the peak, the platform now been found in the case of centralized mention, investors show some sidelines. Currency network, for example by fire, the 19th volume of withdrawals platform more than 30 million yuan, 20 and 21 days reached 40 million yuan.   I hope the introduction of regulated trading platforms   mentioned Yi Gang's statement about bitcoin, told reporters that a number of platforms is good news for investors. Preceding a platform CEO believes that the People's Bank does not recognize the legal status of Bitcoins is expected, but Yi Gang said Bitcoin is an Internet trading freedom, does not directly interfere with the description of bitcoins in China's development has been the tacit approval of the regulatory authorities.   On the other hand, recently Bernanke's statement also showed similar views. Bernanke said the Fed is only entitled to manage its distribution, liquidation or assignment of physical currency products, and regulatory banking institutions and have no rights under the direct supervision of virtual currency. Therefore, the Fed temporarily not formulated for bitcoin regulatory scheme should provide them with a relatively free market. But one day might be able to "promote a faster, safer and more efficient payment system formed."   But the above platforms CEO said that for the trading platform, the central bank recently no regulatory bitcoin not his wish. As Bitcoin trading platform opened lower threshold, as long as the introduction of third-party payment site erection can be realized transactions, there is no specific regulatory bodies involved, as the hot bitcoin will emerge a large number of competitors. More importantly, because Bitcoin is a virtual currency based on market confidence, once densely adverse trading platform, "foot" and other phenomena, currency Bitcoin will do great damage, and thus undermine the entire market order.   He further introduced, in addition to trading platforms, but also spawned a number of domestic bitcoin-based downstream industries such as bitcoin gaming etc. These formats have actually exceeded the scope of financial regulation, but great risks to participants . In fact, BTC China market analysis on the pages with bitcoin betting sites advertising. According to this site, data show that the current players have been involved in bets over 70,000 bitcoins. (Edit ZhaoPing)   Author: Zhangyue Guang Zhang Shuo

This is about the best response you can get, unless you are really(really?) expecting a central banker to acknowledge the legitimacy of an alternative currency.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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November 22, 2013, 05:51:53 AM
 #11

Well, if the Party decides to outlaw Bitcoin it would be very easy for them to block it. The Great Firewall of China would simply block the network. Much easier then killing it then it is in the rest of the world.

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oakpacific
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November 22, 2013, 05:54:51 AM
 #12

Well, if the Party decides to outlaw Bitcoin it would be very easy for them to block it. The Great Firewall of China would simply block the network. Much easier then killing it then it is in the rest of the world.

As long as the pool operator is outside China(which is pretty much the status quo), it doesn't matter much, or the Chinese could just outsource everything....

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
MoonShadow
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November 22, 2013, 05:58:38 AM
 #13

Well, if the Party decides to outlaw Bitcoin it would be very easy for them to block it. The Great Firewall of China would simply block the network. Much easier then killing it then it is in the rest of the world.

It would not be easy at all for them to block it.  They can't block it right now, and they know it.  Done correctly, they can't even find it.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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November 22, 2013, 06:12:06 AM
 #14

Well, if the Party decides to outlaw Bitcoin it would be very easy for them to block it. The Great Firewall of China would simply block the network. Much easier then killing it then it is in the rest of the world.

This is bullcrap and you know it. Bitcoin is value based on knowledge of signed transactions & private keys, not on connection to any network. The P2P network is just a place to prove you have that knowledge. You can easily use a push service like blockchain.info to do the actual connecting for you.

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November 22, 2013, 07:22:23 AM
 #15

I think they couldn't block it but they could make it difficult to use.  I wouldn't mess with the Chinese government if they banned it.
I expect the price would fall by at least 75% if 20% of the world and the 2nd biggest market was cut out!


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November 22, 2013, 07:26:34 AM
 #16

the Yaun isn't an international reserve currency,

Looked at the exchange rate lately? (I mean in the last several years) Somebody has to hold those yuans, so I think it's already one.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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November 22, 2013, 08:01:02 AM
 #17

Wow. Pretty even opinions on the poll.  17 each for the first 3 choices.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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November 22, 2013, 08:07:48 AM
 #18

I think they couldn't block it but they could make it difficult to use.  I wouldn't mess with the Chinese government if they banned it.
I expect the price would fall by at least 75% if 20% of the world and the 2nd biggest market was cut out!

CCP has banned VPN sales for firewall-crossing purposes for years, yet the market is now more prosperous than ever.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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November 22, 2013, 09:07:25 AM
 #19

Yes the doubt is always there but this is not a concern of mine anymore, BTC china is now well established and they just received a decent investment from a Chinese capital venture which apparently has connections to the Chinese government.

I think who we really should worry about is the US government who is always out there trying their best to crush any innovation that would threat their status quo. They are also busy raiding/shutting down bitcoin based merchants, also US banks are being very resistant to Bitcoin. I mean if the US gov don't ban bitcoin they will try to "regulate it" which might keep a lid on Bitcoin's value.

tearfereon
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November 22, 2013, 09:51:52 AM
 #20

Well, if the Party decides to outlaw Bitcoin it would be very easy for them to block it. The Great Firewall of China would simply block the network. Much easier then killing it then it is in the rest of the world.

It would not be easy at all for them to block it.  They can't block it right now, and they know it.  Done correctly, they can't even find it.


All what is needed is close the exchanges.
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