New paradigm - the bubble that never pop?

[Rampion]

this thread is such a bearish indicator it hurts.

[bassclef]

I'm sure the thread title was chosen on purpose.

[mearylll]

The fact is that Bitcoin solves a multi trillion dollar need for a way to transfer funds.  It isn't there yet though.  Right now it's providing maybe a few tens of millions in value and the rest of the price is due to hoarding.

It is true current exchanges have very few millions available in buy orders, Bitcoin will be less volatile and more useable when it is traded at wall street

[Spekulatius]

The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm.

[TheWoodser]

Yep, new paradigm in effect. Some around the forum are advising others to take mortgages on their houses to buy bitcoins. Lunacy.

New paradigm!!!

+1 on the Lunacy......and my old lady would leave me......

[Odrec]

You can also enroll on an University with bitcoin

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-cyprus-university-bitcoin-20131120,0,3194094.story#axzz2lKbZwlS1

[Miz4r]

There's no new paradigm, there also isn't actually a real bubble (yet). We went parabolic for a short while and then had a pretty sizable correction pretty much all the way back to where the parabolic rise had started. This is perfectly normal and not a crash or 'bubblepop' like some would claim. Bitcoin is getting really popular right now and lots of new money is arriving at the exchanges wanting to buy so the correction will be kinda shortlived I think. This correction may not yet completely be over though, but I do think we have already seen the bottom. The top of this 'bubble' will in my opinion be somewhere between $2000 and $3000, after which the hype subsides a bit and we go back to $1000 or so (either in a dramatic crash or a painfully long bear market, or both ). If bitcoin infrastructure grows well and it becomes more noob friendly in the future then the sky really will be the limit, but we're not that far yet.

[SkRRJyTC]

There's no new paradigm, there also isn't actually a real bubble (yet). We went parabolic for a short while and then had a pretty sizable correction pretty much all the way back to where the parabolic rise had started. This is perfectly normal and not a crash or 'bubblepop' like some would claim. Bitcoin is getting really popular right now and lots of new money is arriving at the exchanges wanting to buy so the correction will be kinda shortlived I think. This correction may not yet completely be over though, but I do think we have already seen the bottom. The top of this 'bubble' will in my opinion be somewhere between $2000 and $3000, after which the hype subsides a bit and we go back to $1000 or so (either in a dramatic crash or a painfully long bear market, or both ). If bitcoin infrastructure grows well and it becomes more noob friendly in the future then the sky really will be the limit, but we're not that far yet.

100% with you.

[jatajuta]

This happened before.

A quick pic from march of this year, guess where we went after that...

[jatajuta]

And where we are today.

[ElectricMucus]

Now the fun part: Draw a trend "line" on the log chart, one time at the former, then try to do the same on the latter.

[windjc]

This happened before.

A quick pic from march of this year, guess where we went after that...

Yep, and based on that chart we have about 8-9 days before we break $1000. Which seems about right.  We have a lot of resistance to go through.

However, we also have SO much more new fiat going into the exchanges, so it very well might take less time than that.

[pera]

The difference is the speed and the grow in volume: now we are going almost two times faster but the volume didn't changed much since that period (and this considering btcchina volume as real)
 

[meanig]

The MTGOX bid-sum increased by $7,000,000 today. It went from $28million to $35million. That's largest single day jump I've ever seen and $35 million is a new bid-sum record too.

Crazy times indeed 

[Boxman90]

The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm.

At what percentage within the previous top does one usually speak of "double top"? Right now it's within 1.3% of the previous top at Bitstamp.

[Blazey]

The latest rebound is a bit overextended, I agree (I thought 670 would be the top). There is a good chance for a solid double top with mighty bearish consequences.
Unless it goes above 900$ I wouldnt call it unusual. Other bubbles in history have exhibited similar behaviour. IF we make a new ATH with in week I will start to believe the new paradigm.

At what percentage within the previous top does one usually speak of "double top"? Right now it's within 1.3% of the previous top at Bitstamp.

i believe the history is still to young for the paradigm, we just started and we are picking up newbies investing in btc.

[MGUK]

From
http://www.solerinvestments.com/Online-Trading/Stock-Market-Crash.htm

Previous Bubbles have included:
The Japanese "Take Over the World" Bubble of the late 1980's
The Asian Currency Bubble of the mid 1990's
The Internet/High Tech Bubble of the late 1990's
The Residential Real Estate Bubble of 2000-2003
The coming Inflationary Bubble caused by the U.S. Government's attempt to mitigate the effects of the crash of these Bubbles and 9/11.

How Bubbles Grow: 12 Easy Steps
1. A believable concept offers a revolutionary and unlimited path to growth.
2. Surplus of funds and lack of opportunities lead to buying or investing in anything available.
3. An idea is complex and cannot be totally explained or related to an investor.
4. The crowd imitates the leader. All Aboard! Even the gardener has a tip!?
5. Prices fluctuate from traditional level to overvalued level, THEN to all new ground and all time highs.
6. New levels are sanctioned by experts. "We are in a new Paradigm!"
7. Fear of missing the boat takes over. Cloning of the idea occurs as many new overvalued competitors enter the market.
8. Lending practices are eased. Money flows like water to anything or anyone with a new idea.
9. Cult figures emerge for the new paradigm. The media promotes lifestyles, not substance.
10. The Bubble lasts longer than expected. Critics are dismissed. The last suckers are sucked in.
11. Fraud emerges as partly responsible for the bubble as the first cracks show in the bubble.
12. Finally, everyone has a reason why it cannot continue. But nobody dumps, and all hold onto their profits. No new buyers. Market stalls.

How a Bubble Bursts
1. A continued new supply of lower priced offerings occurs from rising prices. New IPO's get bigger and bigger
2. There is a rise in interest costs. The Government declares "Excessive Exuberance" and tightens credit too quickly.
3. Prices collapse and everyone heads for the exits at the same time. With no more buyers, prices hit free fall.
4. Fraud is uncovered in many diverse industries, and in monitoring and auditing agencies. This leads to more selling.
5. Governments intervene and give investors time to get out before the real decline.

Rules to Live By
1. Do not extrapolate the future from the present.
2. Trends continue for a long time (2-5 years) and then suddenly reverse chaotically. Witness the Tech Bubble.
3. Intermittent secondary corrections occur at Fibonacci Levels of 38%, 50% and 62% that result in classic Bull or Bear Traps.
4. Bottom picking begins several different times, trying to restart the Bubble, but to no avail. Massive losses occur to professionals trying to manipulate the markets.
5. Finally everyone recognizes that "Trends go further than you expect, and last longer than expected." Everyone gives up and sells.
6. As the volume of the decline decreases, a slow recovery begins.

Yes, I know there isn't really any credentials backing this up.
Yes, I know Bitcoin is not the stock market.
Yes, I know we should look to the past for answers to the present or future.

I'm adding this because it's interesting and others may find it's a useful contribution to the discussion.

[MGUK]

Actually, the more I read that in the context of this and other posts, the more I realise most of those points should really be highlighted.

Again though, correlation != causation.

[pera]

Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior?




low volume, big drops, bearish depth chart, price keep going up / stay stable... 

[ElectricMucus]

Still going up, it's amazing. But I still don't understand it, can someone explain this behavior?

It doesn't really cost much to prop up the price a little after a dump. When dumping into a low slippage orderbook like that it would even be stupid not to.