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magicmexican
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November 22, 2013, 02:24:31 PM
 #1

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fred1111
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November 22, 2013, 02:26:48 PM
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The shit could collapse in the 75-125 range and stay there for a long time. That's the most pessimistic scenario I can think of.
neotenie
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November 22, 2013, 02:28:38 PM
 #3

OK, do not kill me for that question...
What does "bear" and "bearish" mean!

Thanks!

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lucas.sev
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November 22, 2013, 02:30:30 PM
 #4

OK, do not kill me for that question...
What does "bear" and "bearish" mean!

Thanks!

Means when you are a bear you think the price will go down
MicroGuy
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November 22, 2013, 02:32:35 PM
 #5

The shit could collapse in the 75-125 range and stay there for a long time. That's the most pessimistic scenario I can think of.

Yeah, that's pretty much a worst case scenerio. I think the next phase will be capital flowing away from Bitcoin and over into the altcoin markets. Yesterday on RT Max Keiser mentioned Litecoin and I see today it's closing in on $10.00.

I think it's this episode: http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-526-max-keiser-025/

"The Internet unshackled information, Satoshi Nakamoto unshackled money. And money makes the world go round."
fred1111
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November 22, 2013, 02:35:12 PM
 #6

The shit could collapse in the 75-125 range and stay there for a long time. That's the most pessimistic scenario I can think of.

Yeah, that's pretty much a worst case scenerio. I think the next phase will be capital flowing away from Bitcoin and over into the altcoin markets. Yesterday on RT Max Keiser mentioned Litecoin and I see today it's closing in on $10.00.

I think it's this episode: http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-526-max-keiser-025/
Litecoin is a pump and dump scheme. It offers no advantages compared to BTC.
MGUK
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November 22, 2013, 02:38:38 PM
 #7

I sold around $400. Still got my buys spread between $100 - $200 and they're staying there for a while at least.

I suspect bearishness correlates with how far out people zoom on their chart of choice (e.g. the more bearish, the more the person zoomed out)

zeroday
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November 22, 2013, 02:44:40 PM
 #8

Some bulls become short time bears to gain extra btc in their stash.
But it's very risky due to permabullish nature of bitcoin. Many of them finally missed the train sold at $5, $30, $60, $100, $300, $500.



neotenie
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November 22, 2013, 02:52:43 PM
 #9

Many speak about a bear trap between the 2 pics a few days ago.
What do they mean?

Is there a lexicon somewhere for these terms somewhere in the forum?
Thanks!

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MGUK
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November 22, 2013, 02:55:48 PM
 #10

Many speak about a bear trap between the 2 pics a few days ago.
What do they mean?

Is there a lexicon somewhere for these terms somewhere in the forum?
Thanks!

You just kinda have to pick it up as your go along

A trap tends to suggest the price is going one way luring either bears to sell or bulls to buy and then goes the other way, so it was a trap.
zeroday
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November 22, 2013, 02:56:28 PM
 #11

Many speak about a bear trap between the 2 pics a few days ago.
What do they mean?

Is there a lexicon somewhere for these terms somewhere in the forum?
Thanks!

Bear trap is when bears (those who think price is falling) sell bitcoins and expect to re-buy at lower price. But instead, price stops falling and goes even higher. So bears are just trapped and suffer from serious losses.

oda.krell
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November 22, 2013, 03:10:29 PM
 #12

I sold around $400. Still got my buys spread between $100 - $200 and they're staying there for a while at least.

I suspect bearishness correlates with how far out people zoom on their chart of choice (e.g. the more bearish, the more the person zoomed out)

I'm going to assume that's what you really did, so then I'm wondering: that strategy only makes sense if you assume that we're going to correct down to between 1/8 to 1/4 of the current price. Which didn't even happen in the April 10 crash in any substantial volume (don't know how much you're expecting to buy, but let's say it's more than neglible amounts). That's pretty hardcore bearish, not just "we're overbought right now and will correct back to July levels" but "we're going back more than half a year, well below the previous ATH". Would actually be really interested to hear why you think that's the case?

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
wobber
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November 22, 2013, 03:15:56 PM
 #13

Hey OP. I think that would be me. Contrary to popular belief I never sold to buy lower (when I did, I used the fun-money, not funds I wouldn't afford to loose)

I don't trust these high prices but I do profit on them.

If you hate me, you can spam me here: 19wdQNKjnATkgXvpzmSrkSYhJtuJWb8mKs
neotenie
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November 22, 2013, 03:49:03 PM
 #14

Thanks, that makes it clear!
So I did fall in the trap (sold for 350) and before I make more stupid decision, I will wait a few weeks. Maybe I can get back my btc maybe not.
Greets!

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MGUK
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November 22, 2013, 03:58:04 PM
 #15

I sold around $400. Still got my buys spread between $100 - $200 and they're staying there for a while at least.

I suspect bearishness correlates with how far out people zoom on their chart of choice (e.g. the more bearish, the more the person zoomed out)

I'm going to assume that's what you really did, so then I'm wondering: that strategy only makes sense if you assume that we're going to correct down to between 1/8 to 1/4 of the current price. Which didn't even happen in the April 10 crash in any substantial volume (don't know how much you're expecting to buy, but let's say it's more than neglible amounts). That's pretty hardcore bearish, not just "we're overbought right now and will correct back to July levels" but "we're going back more than half a year, well below the previous ATH". Would actually be really interested to hear why you think that's the case?

So first, I've been studying Bitcoin for 2.5 years. I'm not a trader, I don't follow it to make money. I've invest $100 and that $100 is $100 I count as in the bin (gone.) I'm not a brilliant investor, I lost some of my potential profits doing bad day trading at times, and lost bits investing in altcoins. Generally though after my first year, I stopped trading, mainly holding, doing a sell if I think the price is highly overinflated (e.g. April.)

But this was my reasoning


I think the true value of Bitcoin (and trend) is between early December and early April. I think the trend disappears for a bit due to hype, but continues again from July until October. I think outside of those ranges, the price variation is not due to the value of Bitcoin increasing, but just speculation. I think: when it's speculation, it's risky.

I sold what I had for $800. In my risk assessment, my belief the that price will go down was high enough for me to decide I'm happy to cash out for the time being with 700% profit. An implication of my assumption the price will drop a lot is that holding for longer is an increased risk of losing what I had at the time. Given the choice of taking home 700%, or taking a risk, being a risk averse person, I chose to take the money.

In my eyes, there is never a reason to be sad, second guess or feel like I've lost out with 700% profit. Saying I could have had 1500% profit, to me, is the equivalent of saying "I could have had $20million if I'd picked <insert last weeks lottery numbers> in last weeks lottery" - pointless.

Yes, I could have held longer and had $1500, but I saw an opportunity to take home $700 with no risk. Makes sense to me.

With my thought process, lost potential profit is not a loss of profit, because that potential profit would have cost risk, which is something I don't like or need to be content.

edit: I would be lying though if I said I wasn't considering revising my buys closer to $200, maybe even as high as $250.
mp420
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November 22, 2013, 04:03:23 PM
 #16

I'm overall bearish at the moment and I don't think the current market price levels are supported by anything but hot air.

The way I see it, there are 12 million BTC in existence and only a tiny fraction of that has changed hands at anything close to the current levels. Probably those with several thousand BTC have already cashed out and paid off their mortgages (and are in no hurry to sell the rest of their bitcoin holdings) but there are a lot of people with anything from 100 to 1000 BTC who are just waiting for the signal.

Also, the difficulties at MtGox, and to a lesser degree all other exchanges, has made people reluctant to cash out their coins. Mostly just miners and hardcore speculators are selling at the moment. If Gox ever gets their bank problems solved, the price is going to plummet instantly.
reannypleas
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November 22, 2013, 04:07:53 PM
 #17

The only true bear I can think of is someone mining and selling all his coins immediatelly.

No need to say how much value this bear looses...

BrightAnarchist
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November 22, 2013, 04:08:09 PM
 #18

It's a super-bubble IMO. So I guess that makes me one of the few remaining people who are not buying. It probably has more to go though. It seems bubbles are pervasive at the moment across many asset classes:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-22/david-stockman-blasts-its-20078-all-over-again

Of course, I've noticed these bubbles for a while now and have talked of their bursting, but it seems that some just keep getting bigger. Figuring out exactly when they'll pop is the hard part. So do as you will.
oda.krell
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November 22, 2013, 04:08:32 PM
 #19

I'm overall bearish at the moment and I don't think the current market price levels are supported by anything but hot air.

The way I see it, there are 12 million BTC in existence and only a tiny fraction of that has changed hands at anything close to the current levels. Probably those with several thousand BTC have already cashed out and paid off their mortgages (and are in no hurry to sell the rest of their bitcoin holdings) but there are a lot of people with anything from 100 to 1000 BTC who are just waiting for the signal.

Also, the difficulties at MtGox, and to a lesser degree all other exchanges, has made people reluctant to cash out their coins. Mostly just miners and hardcore speculators are selling at the moment. If Gox ever gets their bank problems solved, the price is going to plummet instantly.

I really think you overestimate the importance of mtgox at this moment. Sure, they're still relevant, but they are now one of three mostly equally important exchanges.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
accord01
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November 22, 2013, 04:25:28 PM
 #20

I'm overall bearish at the moment and I don't think the current market price levels are supported by anything but hot air.

The way I see it, there are 12 million BTC in existence and only a tiny fraction of that has changed hands at anything close to the current levels. Probably those with several thousand BTC have already cashed out and paid off their mortgages (and are in no hurry to sell the rest of their bitcoin holdings) but there are a lot of people with anything from 100 to 1000 BTC who are just waiting for the signal.

Also, the difficulties at MtGox, and to a lesser degree all other exchanges, has made people reluctant to cash out their coins. Mostly just miners and hardcore speculators are selling at the moment. If Gox ever gets their bank problems solved, the price is going to plummet instantly.

I think there are people that are reluctant to add money to mtgox too.
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