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Author Topic: $10,000 Bet that Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X !!!  (Read 19550 times)
BitVapes
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August 04, 2011, 12:35:47 PM
 #21

lets say i put 20$ in BTC and 10000$ in this bet:

BTC < 1000$ : i win the bet and collect his 10000 -> net win 9980$
BTC > 1000$ i lose the bet and sell my bitcoins -> net win 10000$

so... if it is too good to be true its a scam; or have I made an error in the math here?




although this is a highly unlikely outcome, what if stocks are negative after 2 years and gold and silver are up only 2%, then bitcoin would only have to be up 200%.  So your $20 bitcoin investment is now $60 but you lost a $10,000 bet

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August 04, 2011, 12:45:52 PM
 #22



What could cause this to take off.

1 - people lock down their stuff and security takes priority
2 - more merchants accept them
3 - more people willing to pay in them

what could cause this to crash?

the opposite of above.

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August 04, 2011, 01:53:55 PM
 #23

lets say i put 20$ in BTC and 10000$ in this bet:

BTC < 1000$ : i win the bet and collect his 10000 -> net win 9980$
BTC > 1000$ i lose the bet and sell my bitcoins -> net win 10000$

so... if it is too good to be true its a scam; or have I made an error in the math here?



Except even if you win the bet you won't collect his 10k since it's going to charity, not your pockets.

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August 04, 2011, 02:38:52 PM
 #24

you da MAN Roger!!!

i happen to agree and i've staked my money on it!!!!
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August 04, 2011, 02:54:00 PM
 #25

I think there's a good chance he will win this bet.  Not because the price of bitcoins skyrockets, but because the price of everything else could drop over the next 2 years.  Personally, I don't see silver and the stock market both dropping together over that time period, but it's definitely possible.  I'd say his odds are pretty close to 50/50 on this one...

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August 04, 2011, 03:58:45 PM
 #26

Quote
$10,000 Bet that Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years

How precisely has this been specified?

Does this mean that so long as he finds some point within the next 2 years where this holds true - he's won.. or does the bet only look at the performance 'over' the entire 2 year span and so have to be evaluated exactly on the final day 2 years from now?


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August 04, 2011, 08:19:44 PM
 #27

Can I get a side wager that this bet will be welched on?
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August 04, 2011, 08:27:46 PM
 #28

Just so everyone knows, he is offering to make the bet using longbets.org.  So far, no one has accepted, and the details have not been completed.

In either case, the money from both parties will go to a charity chosen by the winner, not into anyone's pocket.

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August 04, 2011, 08:30:01 PM
 #29

lets say i put 20$ in BTC and 10000$ in this bet:

BTC < 1000$ : i win the bet and collect his 10000 -> net win 9980$
BTC > 1000$ i lose the bet and sell my bitcoins -> net win 10000$

so... if it is too good to be true its a scam; or have I made an error in the math here?



Except even if you win the bet you won't collect his 10k since it's going to charity, not your pockets.
If he wins the bet, he gets $20,000.  If he loses, he gets nothing, the $10,000 winnings would go to MemoryDealer's charity, and $10,000 wager would go back in MemoryDealer's pocket.
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August 04, 2011, 08:39:17 PM
 #30

you my friend have balls.
$1000 a coin is huge expectations!




@BTCSports,
Since I think you know a lot more about how betting works than I do,  I would like your input on how to structure the bet.

I am saying that Bitcoin will outperform ALL of them.

How I imagine it would work is if the current (easy math) price of each is:
Bitcoin is $10.
Silver is $50
Gold is $1500
Dow Jones 10,000 points
Nasdaq 2,000 points
USD is $1

in two years if everything doubles (except the USD will still be worth $1USD) to:

Silver is $100
Gold is $300
Dow Jones 20,000 points
Nasdaq 4,000 points

Bitcoins would need to be more than 100x more  ($1,000 a coin)  for me to win the bet.

Please let me know if anything is not clear,  or you think I am missing something.
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August 04, 2011, 08:40:30 PM
 #31

I don't think that it is logical to assume that the Dow, Nasdaq, Gold or Silver will double in price in the next two years.  

I do think it is almost gauranteed that one of them will be up 10% while another will be down 10%.

If that is a valid assumption Bitcoin will have to increase in value 10x to ~$110 for memorydealer to win his bet.

I would consider buying 100 Bitcoins for $1100 as a hedge and making this bet as pretty much a risk free wager.

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August 04, 2011, 08:43:02 PM
 #32

I don't think that it is logical to assume that the Dow, Nasdaq, Gold or Silver will double in price in the next two years.  

I do think it is almost gauranteed that one of them will be up 10% while another will be down 10%.

If that is a valid assumption Bitcoin will have to increase in value 10x to ~$110 for memorydealer to win his bet.

I would consider buying 100 Bitcoins for $1100 as a hedge and making this bet as pretty much a risk free wager.
All four would go up with heavy inflation though, which is what more and more economists are predicting.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 20-40% inflation over the next 2-3 years.
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August 04, 2011, 08:44:34 PM
 #33

If he wins the bet, he gets $20,000.  If he loses, he gets nothing, the $10,000 winnings would go to MemoryDealer's charity, and $10,000 wager would go back in MemoryDealer's pocket.

Nope, neither party can ever get any of their money back.  That is in the agreement on the site.  It is a tax-deductable charitable donation the instant the agreement is completed.  The resolution of the bet only decides which of the two charities it goes to.

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August 04, 2011, 08:45:30 PM
 #34

This is very interesting.
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August 04, 2011, 08:46:15 PM
 #35

@Roger

Was it MemoryDealers that commissioned a billboard showing Bitcoin accepted or was that another party? If you, does it happen to be in SJ/SF area? I am heading to SJ/SF today for the weekend and would love to get a look at it. Smiley
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August 04, 2011, 08:58:12 PM
 #36

If he wins the bet, he gets $20,000.  If he loses, he gets nothing, the $10,000 winnings would go to MemoryDealer's charity, and $10,000 wager would go back in MemoryDealer's pocket.

Nope, neither party can ever get any of their money back.  That is in the agreement on the site.  It is a tax-deductable charitable donation the instant the agreement is completed.  The resolution of the bet only decides which of the two charities it goes to.
My bad then.
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August 05, 2011, 12:00:02 AM
 #37

@Roger

Was it MemoryDealers that commissioned a billboard showing Bitcoin accepted or was that another party? If you, does it happen to be in SJ/SF area? I am heading to SJ/SF today for the weekend and would love to get a look at it. Smiley

Yes Trent,

This is the same MemoryDealers that did the bitcoin Billboard.
It is on Lawrence Expressway about a half mile south of the 101 freeway.
Google gives the approximate address as:  2399 Lawrence Expressway, Santa Clara, California, United States

Street view still shows the old billboard:  http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ll=37.363097,-121.99605&spn=0,0.052314&sll=37.363199,-121.99605&sspn=0.045911,0.104628&layer=c&cbll=37.362967,-121.996053&panoid=ix57vPj5FLihP6eI0Nvvhg&cbp=12,341.09,,1,0.31&z=15

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August 05, 2011, 01:07:53 AM
 #38

WTF?  A billboard for fiber transceivers at retail?

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August 05, 2011, 02:24:05 AM
 #39

WTF?  A billboard for fiber transceivers at retail?

This is in the heart of Silicon Valley.
You would be surprised how many "walk in"  customers we have.

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August 05, 2011, 05:51:32 AM
 #40

Found It!





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