I'm not an economist, but aren't there better reasons to believe BTC are going up in the long term sense?
I'm thinking of the deflationary nature of the currency, the intrinsic value in the unique attributes of cryptocurrency, the decreasing stability of fiat issuers, etc.. ?
Just remember, Bitcoin monetary base is currently inflating faster than USD monetary base in percentage terms. In the long run, this inflation will fall below USD supply inflation, but it is still well above it.