I agree with you that bitcoin has many qualities of a pyramid scheme, and I too believe it will largely fall apart in the mid-term, year or two from now. But there is always a chance that we`re wrong and this will be the greatest invention since `fire` or the wheel, as some of the lunatics here seem to believe.
In 2 years, bitcoin will be worth at least $100,000 if it hasn't crashed by then. And by then, I will have taken out 66 times my initial investment. Oh no, it's going to crash. And I'm a lunatic for making 66 times my money in 2½ years.
Where are you getting these figures and estimates from? It's pure speculation what Bitcoin will be worth today, tomorrow, months or even 1 year from now, and it could be anywhere from zero to millions. You yourself said yourself "if it hasn't crashed by then" so under that scenario that is not 66X your money.
Bitcoin has followed a logarithmic technology adoption curve for the last 4 years, going up 10x about every 10 months. This year it has been faster than that, over 60x from January 2013 to November 2013. It isn't "pure" speculation. It's "educated guess" speculation and so far we've continued to be right versus all the "pure speculation" bears and stock traders.
I see no reason that this won't continue for at least 6 more months (being over $5000 by then), and if it is accepted as a payment mechanism by several large businesses, much, much longer, with a price topping out (at 6 digits) in 2015-2016 timeframe.
So, I guess what I am saying in regards to the OP is, I am taking steps to protect myself in case it is a pyramid scheme:
1. Only investing what I can afford to lose
2. Beginning to take payouts that exceed my initial investment by 3 times in as little as 6 months (whenever we hit $5000)
3. Believing that as businesses begin to understand the power of a money not controlled by the incumbent banking system, that they will find enough uses for it that it will be permanently adopted as a technology and always have money flowing through it and will never go away then, therefore not being a pyramid scheme.
I advise others to do the same.
