When will the dam break that holds used GPU prices above new MSRP?

[Manlost111]

I base this OPINION on these factors in Crypto. In order of decreasing concern:

A) Crypto value dropping due to too many factors to list, but a big one is tax implications around the world (not just IRS) - many countries are spinning up regulation, and tax review. Another concern (that the new green money is learning the hard way) is unregulated market manipulation (pump and dump) leads to completely unpredictable volatility, and that quickly leads from feelings of optimism --- to hey!!! unfair advantage!!! to the new bloods.

B) Volta/Ampere release lingers JUST outside the viewable horizon, but anticipation is absolutely immense. Potentially 50-70% increased hashrate with GDDR6 at 30% less power rumors are exciting! Also Bitmain seems almost unstable at this point releasing new miners at a ever increasing rate - tackling the current most profitable coins every couple months.

C) Ease of accessibility of crypto mining with tools like NiceHash, Minergate, Winminer, Awesome Miner, EthOS, SMOS, etc has lead to difficulty spiking as an increasing number of new hobbyist get into mining. (I'm not saying this is a bad thing -- you need new people to make crypto grow!!! -- but it does/can lead to increased difficulty mining)

D) Electricity price spikes in the next couple months for the Northern Hemisphere (Electricity doubles in cost in May for many of us - and that's a shadow in everyone's mind - as is mining heat against A/C usage/cooling of our homes). I.E. Do I hold through this low point, or do I sell in anticipation of no profit at all when my electricity price doubles in May.

E) General pessimistic views in the news cycles on Crypto from every angle. In November/December of last year there was a lot of optimistic stories, now it seems the majority are negative.

F) Bitmain Eth ASIC rumors -- displacement of GPU miners targeting ETH means increased difficulty for other alt-coins, and less profitability for existing miners --- leading ultimately to used GPU market flooding.

[NiklasFalk]

When the stocks of GPUs at retailers that were reordered 8 weeks ago (at stupid prices) either get sold or something makes them clear out those stocks due to low demand (or new cards being announced).
This stocking issue is probably why the orders of GPUs dropped so much in April. If you have unsold cards, why stock up on more?

I don't expect prices to get close to MSRP until late June or so, retailers don't like to sell stuff at loss.

But if the 1170 and 1180 will be impossible to get hold of after release the MSRP+50% might continue... If they will be plentiful all other cards will crash in price. That would require all GPU mineable cryptos to have crashed IMO.

[teskostecenje]

As long as mining is profitable that will be the case or when we get close to warranty expiration date for large number of gpus because people will start selling them at that time so we can see prices going down.There are large miners outhere who can still mine with profits even when those profits are lower then 0,5$ per card,those guy probably have cheap power and can survive durring this period

[SpceGhst]

Simple economics... as long as people keep buying them at the current inflated prices, that’s where the price will stay.  I agree with most of your points.

There are more people entering the mining market every day with hopes of big profits.  So the demand for GPUs isn’t going to go down anytime soon.

[leowonderful]

The issue mainly stems from retailers trying to squeeze every last penny out of what's left of the GPU market in terms of demand. One comparison I've seen is that the GPU market's just like the price of gasoline- it goes up quickly and drops slowly. Either way, it's pretty damn ridiculous we're paying more than MSRP for architectures that are coming on two years old.

[sigtmerchant]

I think retailers overstocked them a lot while wholesale prices were quite high and are now holding retail prices high to avoid losses.

[gameboy366]

It is all due to retailers controlling supply. I have seen medium size shops staking millions of $ worth of gpus and selling them at extreme prices. There are too many "hobbyist" miners coming up every minute and as long as it is profitable people will continue paying high price.
What we need is more competition in ASIC and GPU market so that capitalism can balanced. One of the good news is Intel re-entering dedicated GPU market.

[Elder III]

You can find used GPUs on eBay right now that are a bit below MSRP, although it's not the majority of them at this point. It's certainly allot less then they were selling for 6-8 weeks ago at least.

[leowonderful]

It is all due to retailers controlling supply. I have seen medium size shops staking millions of $ worth of gpus and selling them at extreme prices. There are too many "hobbyist" miners coming up every minute and as long as it is profitable people will continue paying high price.
What we need is more competition in ASIC and GPU market so that capitalism can balanced. One of the good news is Intel re-entering dedicated GPU market.

The bad news with Intel Arctic Sound is that they haven't produced a dedicated GPU in a very, very long time, their current integrated graphics aren't great, and it seems they're going to come out sometime in 2020. It's great that there's competition on the horizon, but we have no indicator of how powerful these will be compared to their AMD or Nvidia counterparts in the future, and it'll still be just AMD and Nvidia likely for the next two years.

[Metroid]

It will only drop, when there is no reason to buy gpus anymore other than for gaming.

[Suslived]

It will only drop, when there is no reason to buy gpus anymore other than for gaming.

I disagree. It will crash when there is no reason to buy gpus anymore other than for gaming. It will drop for the reasons listed by the OP.  The OP did a pretty comprehensive analysis of the situation and possible outcomes but may have forgotten to list at least one more:

G) FUD. Media spreading FUD about the mining outlook will drop GPU prices everywhere.

[adaseb]

When ETH was trading around $350 or so about a month ago, there were deals on GPUs all over eBay and the local Craigslist add.

Then when it started to go back up people basically cancelled their eBay listings or stopped replying to their Craiglists ads.

Basically many wanted to be the first to dump before the mega dump of GPUs.

But what happened last month, I guess wasn't the bubble bursting.

[Metroid]

When ETH was trading around $350 or so about a month ago, there were deals on GPUs all over eBay and the local Craigslist add.

Then when it started to go back up people basically cancelled their eBay listings or stopped replying to their Craiglists ads.

Basically many wanted to be the first to dump before the mega dump of GPUs.

But what happened last month, I guess wasn't the bubble bursting.

I still think buying coins is still a better investment yet, for gpus to be a better investment, eth needs to break the $2000 mark but if that happens then gpus and difficulty will be 3x of what is now, reason i say mining is pointless, too much work for beggars money hehe, i advise you trolls to just buy the coins, sit tight and wait eth hit $8000 by the year's end hehe

[lunobird]

When ETH was trading around $350 or so about a month ago, there were deals on GPUs all over eBay and the local Craigslist add.

Then when it started to go back up people basically cancelled their eBay listings or stopped replying to their Craiglists ads.

Basically many wanted to be the first to dump before the mega dump of GPUs.

But what happened last month, I guess wasn't the bubble bursting.

I still think buying coins is still a better investment yet, for gpus to be a better investment, eth needs to break the $2000 mark but if that happens then gpus and difficulty will be 3x of what is now, reason i say mining is pointless, too much work for beggars money hehe, i advise you trolls to just buy the coins, sit tight and wait eth hit $8000 by the year's end hehe

I agree with Metroid here.  Whats the point of spending 10K on mining gear just to earn 10k after its done?  You'll spend another 10k to upgrade just to earn 10k if your lucky. Infinite loop

I only got into mining b/c I made my PROFITS First from buying coins.  As a way to hedge if the markets fell down and lose 75 percent of its value.

You should never view mining as a money printing machine,  View it as a way to hedge your coin profits that you cashed out from to buy GPU,  if the market tanks your GPU acts as insurance.

Im 95 percent coin buyer and 5 percent miner.   I would recommend not investing no more than 10 percent of your assets into gpu rigs

I have 34 1070ti/1080ti home mining farm. At a 25 cents electric rate avg and I can not scale profitable as a business with my electric rate. Break even at best after cost and paying IRS.

And if it is slightly profitable it would be so slim and not worth while

Coin buying is 20x more profitable than mining at least. Just don't be noob and buy at the all time high.

[BTC22]

There's a bunch of places that have them at MSRP or very close to it.

[philipma1957]

why should prices tank?

a 1080ti  earns 2 dollars a day mining zec.

Take Zec   when using about 170 watts that is  4 kwatts in a day  at 10 cents it is 40 cents at 15 cents it is 60 cents and at 20 cents it is 80cents a day in power.

so at  worst 2-.8 = 1.20 in profit.   So if I make 1.20 a day i make 438 in a year.

So everyone that purchased a 1080ti in 2017  can afford to hold the card and mine.

And sales were restricted  in 2018.

This means  desperate miners owning 1080ti's don't exist and won't exist until cards earn nothing and mine at a loss.

I own 21 1080ti's all paid off.  If they earn 21x 1.20 = 25.20 a day  and my power is 13 cents  so I am earning about  21 x 1.50 = 31.50 a day.  or 900 a month.

I have no need to sell them at 400 or 500.  I can ask 600 for air cooled and 800 for water block hybrids.

all of my 21 have more then 2 years left on warranties.  I have no need to dump my cards.

Since everyone is paid off  I can shut them off and speculate on a new rush in a year.  I can hope the new cards come out and are 2x retail which will lift my card prices higher.

Worst case I have 3 heavy gaming friends that will be happy to take some from me.

Many of the 1080 ti people are like me.  I can't be panicked into selling them.

But if you want an air cooled for 600 or a water block hybrid for 800 I will sell you one or two.


I have six of these


https://www.corsair.com/us/en/Categories/Products/Graphics-Cards/Hydro-GFX-GTX-1080-Ti-Liquid-Cooled-Graphics-Card/p/CB-9060011-WW

they are the only one selling them new  and they want 1050 plus shipping .

I can sell mine at 800   or mine them at 1.50 profit a day.

I earned  500 on them . I got them for 800 so I am 300 in the hole. they have 32 months warranty. I purchased them with other profits .. I can keep mining them.

or sell them for 800 which is 250 less then corsair wants.