A possible future scenario: officially registered wallets as the only allowed

[pietrosperoni]

Suppose the US, and the EU, in a conjoined action declare that:
bitcoin are valid. But you can (and should) register your wallet in a central database.
And payments for goods and services are only allowed from registered wallets.
Unregistered wallets are treated as secret bank accounts, and no registered wallet is allowed to accept any money from any such account. If they do the owner goes through a lot of trouble (among them confiscation of any bitcoin sent to them), unless they immediately forward the money to their government.

Considering how easy it is to trace and backtrace transactions, it seems a plausible solution for the governments that will essentially recreate the status quo except with a currency that cannot be printed on demand.

How plausible do you think this is?
What would the effects be?

[superduh]

not plausible, not going to happen.

[corebob]

They will try this, and worse. Its their knee-jerk reaction to anything they can not understand or control.
If they succeed it will defeat the purpose of bitcoin on a technical level and we all might as well go back to the fiat hegemony.

[jaked]

I don't see why they should be interested in this.

Even before Bitcoin, people could hide cash & gold.
The government ensures correct income report of merchants by demanding book management, and making random tests, not by demanding a certain format of payment.

Anyway, if they decide to do it, it'll create a separate segment of unregistered wallet. People will hold some coins in the unregistered wallet, and trade them for mostly leisure, unofficial activities.
I'm not sure if it'll hurt the coin adoption much, but it will take away some of its (implicit) promises for enhanced voluntarism.

But as long as some countries don't pose these restrictions, it'll create demand for moving assets there, or even going to live there.

In the long run, free-trade countries will beat restrictive ones. USA can chose where it wants to be.

[ineedit]

Use VPN service to country that does not require registered wallet = problem removed

[oleedee]

Surely it works the other way;
A list of registered wallets no one will send to.
knee jerk solution.

not just one list but multiple lists that are incompatible would fracture the currency?
Correct me if I'm wrong but there's nothing in the code that would allow for this at a fundamental level. Any list and filter would be an add-on that could be worked around by just reverting to a more base wallet/loading a new client?
I'm confused.

How would it be possible to force a list on the network. its impossible surely, its decentralized!

[zeroday]

The most of legitimate e-commerce businesses will just migrate to darkweb

[corebob]

Surely it works the other way;
A list of registered wallets no one will send to.
knee jerk solution.

not just one list but multiple lists that are incompatible would fracture the currency?
Correct me if I'm wrong but there's nothing in the code that would allow for this at a fundamental level. Any list and filter would be an add-on that could be worked around by just reverting to a more base wallet/loading a new client?
I'm confused.

How would it be possible to force a list on the network. its impossible surely, its decentralized!

They could ask you what your registered address is and require you to use that for everything from bills to salary.

You can have another "secret" address, but if you send money to that address from your registered address, you leave a trace.
And if you want to buy something serious with your secret address, like a house or a car, you have a problem.

[PrFen]

I also thought about something like this, but I don't believe in this scenario. China will not do this, and if U.S. and EU would do this it would be their economic surrender and defeat

[Hawker]

Suppose the US, and the EU, in a conjoined action declare that:
bitcoin are valid. But you can (and should) register your wallet in a central database.
And payments for goods and services are only allowed from registered wallets.
Unregistered wallets are treated as secret bank accounts, and no registered wallet is allowed to accept any money from any such account. If they do the owner goes through a lot of trouble (among them confiscation of any bitcoin sent to them), unless they immediately forward the money to their government.

Considering how easy it is to trace and backtrace transactions, it seems a plausible solution for the governments that will essentially recreate the status quo except with a currency that cannot be printed on demand.

How plausible do you think this is?
What would the effects be?

So the US and EU would dictate to the Chinese, who are the main users now, what they can and can't do with their own money?

I don't see that as a likely scenario at all.