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Author Topic: Analysis of the mid-term for Bitcoin price  (Read 143 times)
thecodebear
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April 30, 2018, 04:08:50 PM
 #1

I'm wondering what you all think are the most likely possibilities for Bitcoin's recovery until the next bull run, actually analyzing the possible situations not just predicting price.

These are what I think are the most likely outcomes in the mid-term:

1. Institutional investors start jumping on board bitcoin this year which creates a new hype phase and Bitcoin passes $20k this Fall and initiates a new bull run that takes place during the first six months of 2019. Bitcoin has come off the bottom of the market strongly, market sentiment has already shifted from negative to positive. The results of a survey with institutional investors that came out last week said plenty of them are going to start crypto trading in the next 6 months. If big boys start jumping in en masse in order to get in the game before the next boom that could be the beginning of the next boom which means it could start by the end of this year.

2. Similar to #1 but tax season has a strong downward effect on price from people not being ready for it and having to sell crypto to pay taxes in the first quarter of the year, meaning a bump happens in late 2018 but then the bull run stalls and doesn't really get going until Spring of 2019 and we have a Spring through Fall of 2019 bull run.

3. Big investors just dip their toes in starting this year but it's not enough to get a new hype phase going. The public isn't quite ready to go nuts for Bitcoin again after many of the people who jumped on board have a sour view after not getting in until the top of the 2017 bull run, and plenty of them sell once the price gets back to their buy-in price, meaning there is steady selling in the (thousands of) teens, dampening and making more gradual Bitcoin's rise back to $20k. Bitcoin very gradually gets back to $20k over the next year, only gaining on average $1000 or less per month, before starting the next boom, leading to a bull run at the same time as in #2.

4. The consolidation period is much longer, reminiscent of the last extremely long one after the Mt. Gox crash. The next boom doesn't occur until the next halving in 2020.



Those are the possible paths I see. I think #4 is least likely because Bitcoin is just too well known now and plenty of big investors will want to get in before the next boom and there hasn't been a MtGox-like event to create an extended crypto winter in which people just lost faith in it for a long time. I of course hope #1 happens because that is the quickest, but looking at long term charts it seems a little too fast a recovery. So I think #2 or #3 might be the most likely which gives Bitcoin a year to consolidate post-crash before it starts going nuts again in the spring/summer/fall of 2019.


thoughts?
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May 01, 2018, 10:54:36 AM
 #2

I of course hope #1 happens because that is the quickest, but looking at long term charts it seems a little too fast a recovery.
I think it is the most probable outcome to happen soon because of the interest people and government shows. Recent news about bitcoin shows that people's growing interest to it leads to cryptocurrency master program in universities. In fact, Russia is interested to bitcoin which makes #1 achievable by 2019. It might happen sooner or later but that time will happen before next halving occurs.
Some reference to what I have claimed above.
https://news.bitcoin.com/brazilian-university-launches-cryptocurrency-masters-programme/
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/04/11/masters-degree-cryptofinance-launched-brazil/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/29/technology/blockchain-iso-russian-spies.html

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May 01, 2018, 05:26:04 PM
 #3

Out of all those scenarios I believe #3 to be the most likeliest. However, I would like to add another scenario and label it #5.

#5 Institutional investors already have their bags filled and are looking to make a breakout move in the coming months. We bull run for alts until sometime in September and then it is Bitcoin's turn after that. End of the year we surpass 1 trillion market cap and Bitcoin will be above $30,000. No top 50 coin has less than 1 billion market capitalization.

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May 01, 2018, 06:20:14 PM
 #4

I'm wondering what you all think are the most likely possibilities for Bitcoin's recovery until the next bull run, actually analyzing the possible situations not just predicting price.

These are what I think are the most likely outcomes in the mid-term:

1. Institutional investors start jumping on board bitcoin this year which creates a new hype phase and Bitcoin passes $20k this Fall and initiates a new bull run that takes place during the first six months of 2019. Bitcoin has come off the bottom of the market strongly, market sentiment has already shifted from negative to positive. The results of a survey with institutional investors that came out last week said plenty of them are going to start crypto trading in the next 6 months. If big boys start jumping in en masse in order to get in the game before the next boom that could be the beginning of the next boom which means it could start by the end of this year.

2. Similar to #1 but tax season has a strong downward effect on price from people not being ready for it and having to sell crypto to pay taxes in the first quarter of the year, meaning a bump happens in late 2018 but then the bull run stalls and doesn't really get going until Spring of 2019 and we have a Spring through Fall of 2019 bull run.

3. Big investors just dip their toes in starting this year but it's not enough to get a new hype phase going. The public isn't quite ready to go nuts for Bitcoin again after many of the people who jumped on board have a sour view after not getting in until the top of the 2017 bull run, and plenty of them sell once the price gets back to their buy-in price, meaning there is steady selling in the (thousands of) teens, dampening and making more gradual Bitcoin's rise back to $20k. Bitcoin very gradually gets back to $20k over the next year, only gaining on average $1000 or less per month, before starting the next boom, leading to a bull run at the same time as in #2.

4. The consolidation period is much longer, reminiscent of the last extremely long one after the Mt. Gox crash. The next boom doesn't occur until the next halving in 2020.



Those are the possible paths I see. I think #4 is least likely because Bitcoin is just too well known now and plenty of big investors will want to get in before the next boom and there hasn't been a MtGox-like event to create an extended crypto winter in which people just lost faith in it for a long time. I of course hope #1 happens because that is the quickest, but looking at long term charts it seems a little too fast a recovery. So I think #2 or #3 might be the most likely which gives Bitcoin a year to consolidate post-crash before it starts going nuts again in the spring/summer/fall of 2019.


thoughts?

Perfect speculation pick mate, but this is not first we are seeing the people opening the thread to speculate the mid year price expectation on bitcoin and altcoins. I hope this thread may used to spam their post.
Hope you(op) will not allow that happen in your thread.
Once you find the few analysis kind of reply from the high rank guys then lock the thread mate. Hope my reply would not hurted you.


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May 01, 2018, 08:31:04 PM
 #5

1. Institutional investors start jumping on board bitcoin this year which creates a new hype phase and Bitcoin passes $20k this Fall and initiates a new bull run that takes place during the first six months of 2019.

institutional investors are observing the position of governments and central banks, with the hard measures being implemented against bitcoin It is causing investor fear and uncertainty. the big reasons why governments take tough measures against crypto is because the crypto are anonymous

Japanese Regulators Discussed Restricting Trade Of Privacy-Focused Altcoins, Report Says

and then we have many opinions of this kind:

Buying Bitcoin Is Not Investing, Claims ‘Oracle Of Omaha’ Warren Buffett

In Attempt To Regain Relevance, Ousted PayPal CEO Says Crypto Traders Are ‘Drinking the Kool-Aid’

so I do not believe that this year we will have big price increases, we can even reach $ 20,000 or even $ 25,000 at the end of the year, but it will be very difficult


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May 02, 2018, 07:26:32 PM
 #6

I think lightning network blooming and being accepted for a mean of payment could spark a surge in bitcoin price. Another think that could help bitcoin price to rise is ofcorse etf listing. It would bring bitcoin closer to the general public

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May 02, 2018, 08:11:51 PM
 #7

I think lightning network blooming and being accepted for a mean of payment could spark a surge in bitcoin price. Another think that could help bitcoin price to rise is ofcorse etf listing. It would bring bitcoin closer to the general public

I wouldn't focus on the fundamentals (from a trading perspective). Bitcoin's fundamentals were strong heading into the 2014 bear market too. The bubble cycles are based almost entirely on emotion, and the post-bubble context means there's lots of bagholders who can pressure the price down.

The idea of an ETF for P2P digital currency just seems so ironic. Keep in mind what happened when CME futures launched too. Tongue

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May 02, 2018, 08:27:38 PM
 #8

From all the predictions you made, to me #3 seams like most likely to happen, or at least something nearly the same. But I guess there are some factors which we can not predict, because we are not aware of them. And those factors could affect bitcoins recovery greatly. Lately a lot of news speak about regulations of crypto, when that starts it will have impact on crypto prices. But I guess this are just what and ifs, you said it well enough in your predictions.
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May 02, 2018, 08:33:50 PM
 #9

I think lightning network blooming and being accepted for a mean of payment could spark a surge in bitcoin price. Another think that could help bitcoin price to rise is ofcorse etf listing. It would bring bitcoin closer to the general public

I wouldn't focus on the fundamentals (from a trading perspective). Bitcoin's fundamentals were strong heading into the 2014 bear market too. The bubble cycles are based almost entirely on emotion, and the post-bubble context means there's lots of bagholders who can pressure the price down.

The idea of an ETF for P2P digital currency just seems so ironic. Keep in mind what happened when CME futures launched too. Tongue

I agree with you to an extent. But fundamentals can certainly change things. Japan adopting Bitcoin started last year's boom. The hype around the futures market is what brought Bitcoin to the mania phase in Nov/Dec.

Also the only thing that happened when CME futures launched is just people realized it wasn't a big deal and the hype surrounding it was way overblown, hence the price started hemorrhaging back to the $6000 price Bitcoin was at before futures hype started.


I think LN will be a big deal in advancing the price, but it's going to be a gradual effect. I mean LN is already live, its just going to grow more secure and more fully featured and the network will slowly expand. I would say it won't actually be big news until a major retailer starts using it.
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May 02, 2018, 09:44:40 PM
 #10

Japan adopting Bitcoin started last year's boom. The hype around the futures market is what brought Bitcoin to the mania phase in Nov/Dec.

Also the only thing that happened when CME futures launched is just people realized it wasn't a big deal and the hype surrounding it was way overblown, hence the price started hemorrhaging back to the $6000 price Bitcoin was at before futures hype started.

buy the rumor, sell the news. Wink

I think LN will be a big deal in advancing the price, but it's going to be a gradual effect. I mean LN is already live, its just going to grow more secure and more fully featured and the network will slowly expand. I would say it won't actually be big news until a major retailer starts using it.

i'm guessing that LN will be a vibrant network in 2+ years, but i think it'll be a slow process with growing pains. bottom line, i can wrap my head around technical analysis. fundamentals are a lot murkier and difficult to quantify in terms of price.

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May 02, 2018, 10:03:45 PM
 #11

bitcoin price in mid term
this mean until end year bitcoin price incraese high, because in end year ussaly bitcoin price incraese high

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May 02, 2018, 10:33:10 PM
 #12

I feel like number 4 is probably going to be the case.

The consolidation phase of this bear market is probably going to last some time longer than a lot of people expect. Just like 2014's consolidation period, which took over 1 year before bitcoin truly bottomed out. There is a lot of room to move downwards still imho.

Even though that right now we're seeings a pretty bullish rally, but most people are way too bullish at this stage when it's probable that consolidation hasn't gone on for long enough for the $6k support to be regarded as 100% set in stone.

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May 02, 2018, 10:40:48 PM
 #13

4. The consolidation period is much longer, reminiscent of the last extremely long one after the Mt. Gox crash. The next boom doesn't occur until the next halving in 2020.


The last halvening was trumpeted a little too much really, if I remember right it marked a seasonal high.   We are still benefiting from the last block reduction, its a gradual effect on reduced supply to the market.    But also nobody has to agree with me on that and markets naturally anticipate events and speculate which would make 2020 not the critical time but the market should see a rise before then in anticipation.


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May 03, 2018, 06:20:41 AM
 #14

4. The consolidation period is much longer, reminiscent of the last extremely long one after the Mt. Gox crash. The next boom doesn't occur until the next halving in 2020.

I disagree with this one.
just because last time it took a longer time to recover from the bear market it doesn't mean each time the bear market has to last that long! not to mention that everything about last time was different. the main reason for that drop was disappearance of the biggest exchange in the whole world controlling more than 80% of the market.
and why aren't you talking about previous bubbles and bear markets? they didn't last this long. we have already have 5 or 6 big bubbles and they all ended fast and bitcoin went back to normal slow rise up like it is doing right now.

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May 03, 2018, 07:10:47 AM
 #15

I'm wondering what you all think are the most likely possibilities for Bitcoin's recovery until the next bull run, actually analyzing the possible situations not just predicting price.

These are what I think are the most likely outcomes in the mid-term:

1. Institutional investors start jumping on board bitcoin this year which creates a new hype phase and Bitcoin passes $20k this Fall and initiates a new bull run that takes place during the first six months of 2019. Bitcoin has come off the bottom of the market strongly, market sentiment has already shifted from negative to positive. The results of a survey with institutional investors that came out last week said plenty of them are going to start crypto trading in the next 6 months. If big boys start jumping in en masse in order to get in the game before the next boom that could be the beginning of the next boom which means it could start by the end of this year.

But what they are really buying are Bitcoin Futures, not Bitcoin. That means no new "institutional investors' money" is going in the market.

The Bitcoin market is doing all the work while the future's market is doing nothing for it.

Quote
2. Similar to #1 but tax season has a strong downward effect on price from people not being ready for it and having to sell crypto to pay taxes in the first quarter of the year, meaning a bump happens in late 2018 but then the bull run stalls and doesn't really get going until Spring of 2019 and we have a Spring through Fall of 2019 bull run.

Was there really that many people who sold Bitcoin to pay for their taxes?

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3. Big investors just dip their toes in starting this year but it's not enough to get a new hype phase going. The public isn't quite ready to go nuts for Bitcoin again after many of the people who jumped on board have a sour view after not getting in until the top of the 2017 bull run, and plenty of them sell once the price gets back to their buy-in price, meaning there is steady selling in the (thousands of) teens, dampening and making more gradual Bitcoin's rise back to $20k. Bitcoin very gradually gets back to $20k over the next year, only gaining on average $1000 or less per month, before starting the next boom, leading to a bull run at the same time as in #2.

Gradual is good, and hopefully with many dips along the way. Haha.

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4. The consolidation period is much longer, reminiscent of the last extremely long one after the Mt. Gox crash. The next boom doesn't occur until the next halving in 2020.

I very much agree!



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Those are the possible paths I see. I think #4 is least likely because Bitcoin is just too well known now and plenty of big investors will want to get in before the next boom and there hasn't been a MtGox-like event to create an extended crypto winter in which people just lost faith in it for a long time. I of course hope #1 happens because that is the quickest, but looking at long term charts it seems a little too fast a recovery. So I think #2 or #3 might be the most likely which gives Bitcoin a year to consolidate post-crash before it starts going nuts again in the spring/summer/fall of 2019.


thoughts?

The fourth one is the most probable in my own opinion.


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timerland
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May 03, 2018, 09:40:43 AM
 #16

If we're talking about the mid-term, then I don't think that this is going to be the end of the bear market. There just hasn't been enough time for consolidating, if a new bull market was to pop up this year like some people are suggesting. I think that is out of the question here.

There are two real possibilities here:

1) $6000 remains effective support, prices consolidate at that level for a few more months before the real recovery begins
2) $6000 support doesn't hold up, instead we see lower levels before bitcoin making its way up, potentially with support a bit lower at levels like $4-5k.

But either way, this pump that we're currently in isn't the start of a 2017 type rally.

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May 03, 2018, 10:05:38 AM
 #17

If we're talking about the mid-term, then I don't think that this is going to be the end of the bear market. There just hasn't been enough time for consolidating, if a new bull market was to pop up this year like some people are suggesting. I think that is out of the question here.

I totally agree with that. However, bear markets don't just go straight down. Price moves in rips and runs. Based on past bubbles, the $6,000-$11,780 bounce is quite small, just 40%. It's typical to retrace closer to the 61.8% fib (or higher like 2014).

The only other parallel then, is 2011. That's much more painful than 2014. Lips sealed

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May 03, 2018, 09:52:09 PM
 #18

If we're talking about the mid-term, then I don't think that this is going to be the end of the bear market. There just hasn't been enough time for consolidating, if a new bull market was to pop up this year like some people are suggesting. I think that is out of the question here.

There are two real possibilities here:

1) $6000 remains effective support, prices consolidate at that level for a few more months before the real recovery begins
2) $6000 support doesn't hold up, instead we see lower levels before bitcoin making its way up, potentially with support a bit lower at levels like $4-5k.

But either way, this pump that we're currently in isn't the start of a 2017 type rally.


Nothing suggests that the bear market is still on. After bottoming out for two weeks Bitcoin has had solid growth for 3 weeks. That is far different than how it was behaving from mid-december through march. Granted we may not hit a real bull market for a while, but the market sentiment at this point is we are out of the bear market and there is no worry of going back to the lows of the crash. It's been 5 weeks since there has been any drop in price other than small temporary corrections from upward moves.
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May 03, 2018, 09:55:25 PM
 #19



But what they are really buying are Bitcoin Futures, not Bitcoin. That means no new "institutional investors' money" is going in the market.


I wasn't talking about futures, I'm talking about actual Bitcoin. At least thats what I assume they are talking about when they are saying they're getting into Bitcoin soon. Maybe I'm wrong and they are just talking futures, likely some of them are, some will directly invest in bitcoin later, and some are not talking about futures but are talking about direct bitcoin.
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May 03, 2018, 10:05:15 PM
 #20

4. The consolidation period is much longer, reminiscent of the last extremely long one after the Mt. Gox crash. The next boom doesn't occur until the next halving in 2020.

I disagree with this one.
just because last time it took a longer time to recover from the bear market it doesn't mean each time the bear market has to last that long! not to mention that everything about last time was different. the main reason for that drop was disappearance of the biggest exchange in the whole world controlling more than 80% of the market.
and why aren't you talking about previous bubbles and bear markets? they didn't last this long. we have already have 5 or 6 big bubbles and they all ended fast and bitcoin went back to normal slow rise up like it is doing right now.

Well yeah I disagree with it too, which is why I said it is the least likely. There's no reason at all to think it will take as long as after the previous crash, but I was just using that as an example. For example, after the 2011 boom, it took about 14 months from when that crash bottomed until the next bull run got going in early 2013, that kind of timeframe would mean bitcoin stays under $20k until start of summer next year (though I guess that was basically the timeframe in my #2 and #3 options.

I was just saying there's a non-zero possibility that something big and negative happens that puts a bull market on hold for a while. I'd give #4 like a 1% change of happening. Very likely we'll be in full blown bull run up in the mid-10s of thousands a year from now. Personally I think this year will mostly be consolidation getting back close to or over $20k, then we'll see a 2019 peak of like $70k before the next crash in late 2019 and then maybe the halving in 2020 gets things going again for a push over $100k by early 2021.
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