$1000 Price

[501]

Since it's clear bitcoin will hit $1000 before the end of the year, I've come up with 3 likely scenarios that will happen as soon as it touches 1000:

1) Panic Buy: People think "oh my god, it's happening" and buy. Also there will obviously be mainstream news articles/coverage about it breaking the 1k price point and raise awareness amongst the general public who will buy in. Mainstream will also start to see it as a more legitimate holding when the valuation is so high. Also, people who heard about that $27 to 1 million guy will hear about bitcoin breaking 1k and decide it's time for them to buy in. Price skyrockets.

2) Panic Sell: Many early miners cash out a chunk of their holdings. Some speculators don't believe it will sustain 1k and sell. As some people sell, everyone panics and sells. Price crashes.

3) Nothing: Growth stays relatively consistent. IMO there is no way this is going to happen.

Personally I'm going with #2. As soon as it hits 1k it will crash to 500-600. Then people will buy back in, and within a couple of days the price will have stabilized in the high 800's and regular growth will resume, taking us to a little over 1000 by the end of the year. I'm not certain of this so I'm not going to sell anything just incase #1 turns out to be true, but I am ready to buy more if it crashes.

What do you think?

[David Rabahy]

Shortly after the $US/BTC exchange rate exceeds $1,000/BTC the idea to switch to mBTC (or whatever it gets called) will push to the front of people's minds again.  $1/mBTC will look very enticing.  The exchange rate will continue to be volatile with 10% swings in 24 hour periods not uncommon but we will see $2/mBTC in 2014.

[David Rabahy]

Newcomers are numb to the wild swings; they want in now despite the swings.  They hope they catch a dip but won't wait very long to try to time entry.  Old guys bringing more in are content to enter at any price on the way up.  The transition from non-retirement funding to retirement funding via SecondMarket and eventual the ETF are causing an inflection point up.  The slope of the curve will become steeper up until the funding influx is over and a more steady state is reached.

This is the time boys; get your money in now.  Keep it in until you are obliged to retail it out after you exhaust your non-Bitcoin resources.  Do not attempt to time the dips and rises or be prepared to under-perform.  Yes, of course, a few will get lucky timing but it is just that luck.  Ignore their claims of a charting theory or some other voodoo junk.  Everything looks like a perfectly predictable chart in the rearview mirror; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

This is a fundamental shift in the world.  People will always gravitate toward freedom and liberty and Bitcoin is the most free and liberating currency (er, thingie) ever.

If there's a fatal flaw found then either the developers will correct it quickly enough or the whole thing goes to zero faster than most can get out; sorry.  So, stay diversified (which is clearly contradictory to my early missive; sorry).

[Light]

Think if we hit $1000, the bias is gonna be clearly upward

More desperate buyers than liquidating early adopters

I'm not too sure about that, from my perspective it looks as though this is just another bubble. If it gets to 1k I'm gonna sell off half of what I have and wait for the market to crash.

[mootinator]

If I had to guess we're already just seeing increased resistance because $1000 is coming. A ton of people want to get out around there, and enough are willing to take a 20-40% discount off that in order to take profits now and keep the price stable.

[501]

This is the time boys; get your money in now.  Keep it in until you are obliged to retail it out after you exhaust your non-Bitcoin resources.  Do not attempt to time the dips and rises or be prepared to under-perform.  Yes, of course, a few will get lucky timing but it is just that luck.  Ignore their claims of a charting theory or some other voodoo junk.  Everything looks like a perfectly predictable chart in the rearview mirror; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

This is something I generally agree with and I haven't cared about buying in more at 600 for example rather than waiting to see if it dipped back to 500. However the first time it hits 1000 I believe it will dip significantly, so I think that would be an excellent time to load up on more coins if I'm right.

[windjc]

Since it's clear bitcoin will hit $1000 before the end of the year, I've come up with 3 likely scenarios that will happen as soon as it touches 1000:

1) Panic Buy: People think "oh my god, it's happening" and buy. Also there will obviously be mainstream news articles/coverage about it breaking the 1k price point and raise awareness amongst the general public who will buy in. Mainstream will also start to see it as a more legitimate holding when the valuation is so high. Also, people who heard about that $27 to 1 million guy will hear about bitcoin breaking 1k and decide it's time for them to buy in. Price skyrockets.

2) Panic Sell: Many early miners cash out a chunk of their holdings. Some speculators don't believe it will sustain 1k and sell. As some people sell, everyone panics and sells. Price crashes.

3) Nothing: Growth stays relatively consistent. IMO there is no way this is going to happen.

Personally I'm going with #2. As soon as it hits 1k it will crash to 500-600. Then people will buy back in, and within a couple of days the price will have stabilized in the high 800's and regular growth will resume, taking us to a little over 1000 by the end of the year. I'm not certain of this so I'm not going to sell anything just incase #1 turns out to be true, but I am ready to buy more if it crashes.

What do you think?

I think what you can expect is this:

A. A lot of selling off BEFORE $1000. So from $890-$1000 there will be coin dumping.

B. A few tests of $1000 with a decent wall at $999 and $1000. 

C. A final blow off of the $1000 top, at which point prices will go up quickly and dramatically as they are free of resistance. This may go to $1100 quickly.

D. A sell off that then drops the price down to and below $1000 shortly.

E. Another rise, not as quick but with the potential to escalate if it continues.

[bitbob82]

i would sell at 990 , just in case it crash back to 500 lol

[suukool]

Option B is what happened in my dream so I know it's gonna happen!

[GriTBitS]

i think $1 for one mBTC would drive price like no other... People can't come to grips with $1000 for one BTC... That is the whole concept behind stock splits are to increase volume. People see a stock at 100$ won't buy it but if they see it back down at 50-55$ after a 2:1 stock split they will buy it. Even though value really never changed. Perception is reality. So if someone knows the guys at the exchanges try to convey this thought process.

[Kazimir]

i think $1 for one mBTC would drive price like no other... People can't come to grips with $1000 for one BTC... That is the whole concept behind stock splits are to increase volume. People see a stock at 100$ won't buy it but if they see it back down at 50-55$ after a 2:1 stock split they will buy it. Even though value really never changed. Perception is reality. So if someone knows the guys at the exchanges try to convey this thought process.

This. It's time exchanges are going to use mBTC as default unit to compare against the USD. Same for tracker / rate monitor sites like bitcoinwisdom, bitcoinity and clarkmoody.

Also that will help against the stupid "21 million units is not enough" claims, cause with mBTC there'll be 21 trillion

[dillpicklechips]

i think $1 for one mBTC would drive price like no other... People can't come to grips with $1000 for one BTC... That is the whole concept behind stock splits are to increase volume. People see a stock at 100$ won't buy it but if they see it back down at 50-55$ after a 2:1 stock split they will buy it. Even though value really never changed. Perception is reality. So if someone knows the guys at the exchanges try to convey this thought process.

I agree and I think an exchange will try it one day. If it does cause a volume increase I'm sure the rest of the exchanges will follow.

[arepo]

Think if we hit $1000, the bias is gonna be clearly upward

More desperate buyers than liquidating early adopters

I'm not too sure about that, from my perspective it looks as though this is just another bubble. If it gets to 1k I'm gonna sell off half of what I have and wait for the market to crash.

funny thing is, if the price does "crash", market participants will anticipate such behavior and undercut you, stealing your profits.

as for a prediction, either way it goes, the efficiency mechanisms (i.e. profit-minimizing tendencies) of the market will likely ensure that no such inflection will occur precisely at $1k BTCUSD but somewhere in the vicinity thereof, determined by the the total set of price-points of market participants.

Since it's clear bitcoin will hit $1000 before the end of the year...

+ newbie sentiment lags sentiment

--arepo

[mrjeff]

Shortly after the $US/BTC exchange rate exceeds $1,000/BTC the idea to switch to mBTC (or whatever it gets called) will push to the front of people's minds again.  $1/mBTC will look very enticing.  The exchange rate will continue to be volatile with 10% swings in 24 hour periods not uncommon but we will see $2/mBTC in 2014.

Trading in terms of mBTC vs BTC could cause a rapid increase in price if the volume is there to support it.

[glub0x]

If I had to guess we're already just seeing increased resistance because $1000 is coming. A ton of people want to get out around there, and enough are willing to take a 20-40% discount off that in order to take profits now and keep the price stable.

Best explanation for the behaviour of the last 3 days to me. Except i would say a 5-25% discount. 40% is too much.

[zachcope]

I am confident the price will go up, then down, then up, then down, then down again, then up a bit, then up lots...

When this occurs I will try not to say 'I told you so'.

I am wise.
 

[Edward50]

If bitcoin gets pushed as mbtc. I am actually not sure how this will all happen as I have been out of the loop for a long time. There still remains many people holding a lot of bitcoin that is very expensive.

The big question arises is can the demand for bitcoin keep up with the people who will naturally have to convert their bitcoin holdings into fiat? I would think that many new millionaires will want to buy houses etc. and will be cashing out. Therefore they will need a lot of people to pump money to them. It is hard to see that enough people will be buying out all these very expensive bitcoins.

[calian]

If bitcoin gets pushed as mbtc. I am actually not sure how this will all happen as I have been out of the loop for a long time. There still remains many people holding a lot of bitcoin that is very expensive.

The big question arises is can the demand for bitcoin keep up with the people who will naturally have to convert their bitcoin holdings into fiat? I would think that many new millionaires will want to buy houses etc. and will be cashing out. Therefore they will need a lot of people to pump money to them. It is hard to see that enough people will be buying out all these very expensive bitcoins.

One major sign that we're not at the top of the current run up is the paucity of luxury goods offered for sale in the marketplace for bitcoin. In April you could get this Porsche for BTC100. I hope the seller kept the coins.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170706.0

[tunctioncloud]

This. It's time exchanges are going to use mBTC as default unit to compare against the USD. Same for tracker / rate monitor sites like bitcoinwisdom, bitcoinity and clarkmoody.

Also that will help against the stupid "21 million units is not enough" claims, cause with mBTC there'll be 21 trillion

I agree to go with mBTC, but unless you have another definition of trillion than I do then there is "only" 21 billion mBTC.

I already think in mBTC terms in most transactions. It is unfortunate there are people who think 1 BTC is smallest Bitcoin "share" 

[Kazimir]

I agree to go with mBTC, but unless you have another definition of trillion than I do then there is "only" 21 billion mBTC.

Right, I took the European->American *illion conversion one step too far