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Author Topic: I have been warning you tards long enough. When will you learn?  (Read 3375 times)
fastandfurious
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August 06, 2011, 09:44:18 AM
 #21

Average cost is around $3.50 per coin, maybe more $3.00, but we can throw in extra 20% and agree on $3.50. If anyone disagrees please post your exact math for me.

$7.50 to create one bitcoin worth $9.50 here.  I won't post the maths, as I've posted it here many times before.  People paying 10c/kwh are the only ones capable of producing a bitcoin for $3.50.  Some people can do that, a lot can't.

That's the hole point, miners that can't mine with cheap electricity shouldn't, that's EASY EASY EASY (sorry for that I don't get why you guys don't get it) maths and economics. If someone else can produce something else much cheaper then you, lets say bitcoins (this works with pretty much anything), then you as a producer of bitcoins should say to your self, wait know, why should I produce bitcoins when that guy in Russia is producing it much cheaper AND are willing to sell it to the market. Then you shouldn't be a miner, you should be a SMART direct buyer at the exchanges, you should know what he pays to produce it, and you should then buy it with a small margin, that is the real world. Bitcoins, because it's so new didn't for a while work according to economic laws, but it will, and we are seeing it right now.
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August 06, 2011, 10:22:13 AM
 #22

Average cost is around $3.50 per coin, maybe more $3.00, but we can throw in extra 20% and agree on $3.50. If anyone disagrees please post your exact math for me.

$7.50 to create one bitcoin worth $9.50 here.  I won't post the maths, as I've posted it here many times before.  People paying 10c/kwh are the only ones capable of producing a bitcoin for $3.50.  Some people can do that, a lot can't.

That's the hole point, miners that can't mine with cheap electricity shouldn't, that's EASY EASY EASY (sorry for that I don't get why you guys don't get it) maths and economics. If someone else can produce something else much cheaper then you, lets say bitcoins (this works with pretty much anything), then you as a producer of bitcoins should say to your self, wait know, why should I produce bitcoins when that guy in Russia is producing it much cheaper AND are willing to sell it to the market. Then you shouldn't be a miner, you should be a SMART direct buyer at the exchanges, you should know what he pays to produce it, and you should then buy it with a small margin, that is the real world. Bitcoins, because it's so new didn't for a while work according to economic laws, but it will, and we are seeing it right now.

Don't forget about competing with someone who doesn't pay for power (they do, indirectly, but ignore the costs) and those mining with stolen power (at work, for example, where the employer pays).

Bitcoins are a commodity.  There's enough out there already that even if all miners gave up tomorrow there would be more than enough bitcoins to keep speculators happy.  It's so self evident that I don't know why more people don't get it.  Miners are no longer required and the cost of mining is irrelevant to bitcoin's price.

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skyhigh
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August 06, 2011, 10:28:25 AM
 #23

ThomasV, you comparing 5000 years of gold history and some well designed code from a few years ago. Gold has been tested 64634 times in its history and somehow people still trust in it. Billions of them. Bitcoins on the other hand are new. 99% of the world never heard of them. If you think this will be the last version of the decentralized e-currency for the next 5000 years then you might have a point, but I'm 99.9999% sure it won't be. There will be better versions of decentralized e-currency in the next 5 to 50 years. While there will still only be one shiny commodity called gold, easy to buy / sell and easy to store for free forever.


Now for a basic simple math of bitcoin production cost...

radeon 6690 is not the best card but lets go with that ... overclocked can get approx 800 M-hash/sec at 350 W. At current difficulty 1.88 mill we get 0.43 coins per day. We need 2.3 days for each coin approx 56 hours. 0.35 kW * 56 hours = 19.6 kW of electricity per coin. Even at 25c per kW it only cost $4.50 per coin.

If your costs are higher, you either paying extra premium electricity or your mining rig is shit. Whichever of the two is  your problem and you probably shouldn't even be mining.

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August 06, 2011, 04:33:52 PM
 #24

Why do people keep discussing BTC generation cost on a speculation board? That's totally off-topic.

Speculators care little about anything other than the BTC influx, and that's constant. True, we may have lots of miners playing speculators, but trying to forecast their behavior as a major market indicator is really going overboard.
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August 06, 2011, 05:20:18 PM
 #25

Difficulty will lower when miners quit.  People aren't gonna pay more just because 1000's of miners drive difficulty up. 
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August 06, 2011, 06:35:00 PM
 #26

This guy is 100% plant. He just joined forum on june 09.

This is his 1ST POST:

Please link me if there is another post like this.

I was thinking of building a mining rig and need recommendations on the parts. I want to know the best bang for the buck. I will buy used only if it is easy to buy the components used and quickly. If you can send Newegg links for the recommended parts that would be great also.

Please list if it is better to go with 2 3 or 4 video cards, or 2 separate computers with 2 video cards each.


Its a bullshit post. He's a paid shill. If you read between the lines, you can tell he knows exactly the answers to his questions.

Then his 2nd post his SECOND POST!!!! he starts trashing bitcoin, THE NEXT DAY, after talking about building a mining rig. Every friggin' post, he trashes it up and down. NO EXECPTIONS! He doesn't mention building a mining rig again!!! And pure negative BS from that moment on, before any of the bad bitcoin mishaps started happening (except for the drop from $30).

I agree there will be a correction in the price. I think there are many more new coins coming into the market then speculators or people who need the currency will buy. When the price stagnates for a few days people will try and take some profits.

For the people who own thousands of these coins, they were crazy if they did not sell some of their bitcoins when the price was over $30.

I think the bitcoin has potential, but the prices are just far too high with so many coins out there, and the risk of someone so easily dumping all their coins.

DISINFO AGENT.

And you know if there's one, there's a hundred.



Wow, I am honestly surprised that I made that predicition so early during June , it is bascially holds true to this day. How can you put someone down who called the drop so early on, or right when it peaked at $30 and started to back out a little, and even as you said before all the major problems started to happen.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
foggyb
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August 06, 2011, 07:53:06 PM
 #27


Wow, I am honestly surprised that I made that predicition so early during June.


bitcola
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August 06, 2011, 07:57:49 PM
 #28

Some of these arguments on price to manufacture bitcoins are ridiculous.

The price will eventually fall to next to nothing. That is the true value right now.

The price of manufacture doens't mean anything. Criminals who can obtain free electricity will exploit an arbitrage opportunity and drive the price of the currency down. I'm sure they're doing it already.

So what value remains in it? Well, bitcoin has no value as a safe haven, we've seen that in recent days as its % losses were greater than the stock market. It also has huge amounts of inherent risk.

There is also no commercial value in it. Hardly any businesses accepting bitcoin and those who do are taking a huge risk and so demand a risk premium (don't tell me that those offering discounts are making a lot of money, they are not).

The value will sink ever more slowly and slowly. If only it was easier to short, I'd go all-in right now.
bitcola
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August 06, 2011, 08:01:21 PM
 #29

Why do people keep discussing BTC generation cost on a speculation board? That's totally off-topic.

Speculators care little about anything other than the BTC influx, and that's constant. True, we may have lots of miners playing speculators, but trying to forecast their behavior as a major market indicator is really going overboard.

Off-topic? Not at all.

Supply and demand. Market dynamics are that simple. Who do you think supplies the coins?
Ridi
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August 06, 2011, 08:35:07 PM
 #30

Bitcoins were mined before they were worth 3+ dollars and they'll be mined after they fall below it again.  Miners who give up on the system will only cause the algorithm to become easier and will bring the market back to it's natural, low-speculation based price.  If this Bull has proved anything, it's that miners do have an effect on the market, but not enough to artificially inflate prices very high.  Which comforts me a great deal.

That and I'm betting all people who sold their illegal products for 30 USD/BTC rates are getting a lovely cut to their profit margins right now  Cheesy

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I don't support the artificial value of BTC, don't buy BTC at ridiculous prices.  Let Miners learn the lesson banks wouldn't.  The Supply has outgrown Dema
prof7bit
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August 06, 2011, 08:55:59 PM
 #31

However, the main reason is that there are way too many miners dumping thousands of bitcoins on the market every single day.

This does not make any sense. All miners together can not dump at any rate faster than 50 coins per 10 minutes, no matter if there are 100 or 10000 miners.

"There are too many miners" does not make any sense. Supply through mining is constant, no matter how many miners there are.

The drop that now happened was easily predictable from the obvious chart pattern that formed after the bubble, the target area around here (the minimum size of the inevitable second leg) was to be expected at or below $8. You will soon be able to observe the same kind of drop (only slower) from the same kind of post-bubble pattern in Silver when it will fall to $26/Oz and all the amateur traders will cry "manipulation!" like they do every time when they have manipulated themselves into buying an obvious bubble, totally unable to zoom out and view the complete picture.


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grod
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August 06, 2011, 09:04:27 PM
 #32


This does not make any sense. All miners together can not dump at any rate faster than 50 coins per 10 minutes, no matter if there are 100 or 10000 miners.

"There are too many miners" does not make any sense. Supply through mining is constant, no matter how many miners there are.

A few key words are missing from the "too many miners" theory.  3/4 of mining capacity is new, as in less than 2 months new.  While mine & hoard releasing less than 20% to the market was the winning strategy previously that is not a winning strategy for the "new" miners.  So in effect, too many of the "wrong" kind of miners are having an effect on bitcoin.

I'm not the only one estimating the BTC mined vs sold went up from a historical 20% to 50% or even higher.  That money is leaving the trading pool and winding up as fresh hardware, booze, hookers, credit card payments to finance previous hardware purchase, whatever.  And as prices (in $) fall, the less attractive a buy & hold strategy appears.  The new winning strategy becomes dump and buy more at a lower price.

While not a primary driver I don't think you can deny mining can have a negative impact on price.
Minsc
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September 07, 2011, 12:49:08 AM
 #33

However, the main reason is that there are way too many miners dumping thousands of bitcoins on the market every single day. buyers of bitcoins are few and far between, why buy when most people mine them for free anyway. The buyers of bitcoins can not afford to pay all those thousands of miners to mine.

I think the price needs to drop until mining is a waste of money.  Only then will miners save their coins instead of sell them.  People need to mine either as a hobby or as a multi-year investment.

Right now people are building expensive custom chips just to mine coins.  All you people who mine, if the price climbs up, will you mine more?  No, you will mine far far less because it will be the rich folks with their super expensive mining rigs getting all the coins.  The only way you will mine more coins is when the price drops to worthless and you save them for a year before you sell them -- that's how you make money... you see people have to think it's not worth it to mine.  Right now people think mining pays off so it's not worthwhile to mine.

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September 07, 2011, 01:39:38 AM
 #34

This guy is 100% plant. He just joined forum on june 09.

This is his 1ST POST:

Please link me if there is another post like this.

I was thinking of building a mining rig and need recommendations on the parts. I want to know the best bang for the buck. I will buy used only if it is easy to buy the components used and quickly. If you can send Newegg links for the recommended parts that would be great also.

Please list if it is better to go with 2 3 or 4 video cards, or 2 separate computers with 2 video cards each.


Its a bullshit post. He's a paid shill. If you read between the lines, you can tell he knows exactly the answers to his questions.

Then his 2nd post his SECOND POST!!!! he starts trashing bitcoin, THE NEXT DAY, after talking about building a mining rig. Every friggin' post, he trashes it up and down. NO EXECPTIONS! He doesn't mention building a mining rig again!!! And pure negative BS from that moment on, before any of the bad bitcoin mishaps started happening (except for the drop from $30).

I agree there will be a correction in the price. I think there are many more new coins coming into the market then speculators or people who need the currency will buy. When the price stagnates for a few days people will try and take some profits.

For the people who own thousands of these coins, they were crazy if they did not sell some of their bitcoins when the price was over $30.

I think the bitcoin has potential, but the prices are just far too high with so many coins out there, and the risk of someone so easily dumping all their coins.

DISINFO AGENT.

And you know if there's one, there's a hundred.



I'm a disinfo agent.

And a freemason.

And a lizard-person.
jwzguy
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September 07, 2011, 01:51:23 AM
 #35

The tard is you. If you're right, you're wasting your time. If you're wrong, you're wasting your time.

Since this is obvious - the only reason to post your nonsense is to troll.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

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Synaptic
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September 07, 2011, 02:00:06 AM
 #36

The tard is you. If you're right, you're wasting your time. If you're wrong, you're wasting your time.

Since this is obvious - the only reason to post your nonsense is to troll.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Or door number three:

This forum is a hobby, just like Bitcoin is a hobby.

If you're insulting our hobby as Bitcoin Forum iconoclasts, then don't we have the right to mock your hobby of being a Bitcoin supporting forum poster?

Yeah buddy, fuck you too. Fuck you real good.
stryker
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September 07, 2011, 10:55:13 AM
 #37

yes coin generation is constant so not too many miners but not enough to do with coins.  We need more merchants and services which will make BTC desirable to have, thus more buyers, thus more demand.

The original notion of bitcoin is its backed by nothing and is only worth what people will TRADE for it.  There is not enough TRADE at this time and way WAY to MANY people obsessed with a bitcoins worth in dollars..... simples!
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