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Author Topic: is Technical Analysis Indistinguishable from Astrology ?  (Read 33 times)
andrew1carlssin
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May 02, 2018, 02:19:00 AM
 #1

I find very provocative and interesting this article ...

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The bulk of classical technical analysis charting is based on confirmation bias: chartists look for patterns that confirm expectations tied to future economic conditions....
availability heuristic bias ... TA-astrologers find audience because showing patterns is easier than showing math formulas ...


Full article on
https://medium.com/@mikeharrisNY/classical-technical-analysis-indistinguishable-from-astrology-1bb8b0c182cf

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shulio
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May 02, 2018, 12:15:08 PM
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From a point of view yes, I think TA analysis is something like Astrology, but more scientific.
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May 02, 2018, 01:10:15 PM
 #3

I find very provocative and interesting this article ...

Quote
The bulk of classical technical analysis charting is based on confirmation bias: chartists look for patterns that confirm expectations tied to future economic conditions....
availability heuristic bias ... TA-astrologers find audience because showing patterns is easier than showing math formulas ...


Full article on
https://medium.com/@mikeharrisNY/classical-technical-analysis-indistinguishable-from-astrology-1bb8b0c182cf


I think charts function more as a measure of human sentiment.. but there are some similarities to astrology imo.

I think often times people THINK charts move based off of news but I find more from my observation that people see movement in charts then go looking for reasons and attach it to news.. would be like doing philosophy backwards where you form a conclusion then go look for premises to support that conclusion... instead of the more logical other way around.

I think honestly more than anything else charts explain the percentages of people react to different stimulants in different ways... Certain %'s of people will buy up blood on the streets.. certain people look for confirmed chart reversals.. others are late reactors but still early enough to make money.  Then you get fomo'ers who are looking to get in before its too late, certain percentages who will dump on them.. early followers that get out in healthy profits.. etc.   I think the measurements of this phenomena really explain human behavior and chart's success even though I believe in technical analysis, is nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophecy.. because enough % of people think that they work.

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May 02, 2018, 01:20:04 PM
 #4

While they seem to be alike in some aspect, TA studies charts and creates projections with mathematical bases at the least whereas astrology only 'predicts' the future through the use of star maps and mythological creatures/beliefs that don't have any scientific and mathematical basis at all. The two are also entirely different on how they come to a conclusion: TA uses charts and historical price data to create their predictions; astrology relies on stars' positions which is literally just the same year to year. Nice analogy but obviously lacking some clear points that differentiate one from another.

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May 04, 2018, 10:25:51 AM
 #5

For conventional exchanges, technical analysis has a good correlation with the actual value of the commodity price. Crypto is too young a market, too many unprofessional traders are panicking at any opportunity.
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