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Author Topic: Psychology of Btcchina  (Read 1585 times)
accord01
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November 27, 2013, 07:37:09 AM
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Many of you, including myself, must have wondered why Bulltcchina turned into beartcchina overnight.  Here are the reasons:

1) The influx of new investors got annihilated in the 7000-3500 crash, and in turn it turned away newer investors.

2) CCTV warning against investing in bitcoin as risky, unreasonable, and people take the government a lot more seriously in China, because of their authority.

But this will all change:

Right now it is GOX and STamp pulling China up.  Nothing is stopping GOX and stamp as we speak, and there is a lot more funds to be added to Stamp, as their support has improved drastically overnight, as well as swiftness of payment processing.  I believe stamp/gox will eventually (as soon as next week) drag china to over 8000 CNY, at which point, it will re gain the trust of china.  And by the time stamp/gox begin to correct from 1200-1600, china will start off another rally which will hedge against stamp/gox correction.

This holiday, it will bring extra happy times!
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jl2012
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November 27, 2013, 08:00:56 AM
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2) CCTV warning against investing in bitcoin as risky, unreasonable,

Do you know Chinese or is this just hearsay?

Last week, Yi Gang, the Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Deputy Governor of the Chinese Central Bank, said "people have the FREEDOM to trade bitcoin"

This week, CCTV has lots of discussion on bitcoin and compares it with gold. I think their advice are very reasonable, e.g. you should learn it before you invest, it is a risky investment, its price is manipulated, it may drop >50% in a day, it is an innovation....... these are all fair and responsible comments.

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beaconpcguru
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November 27, 2013, 08:31:49 AM
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Nothing strange about a communist country giving their people freedom
jl2012
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November 27, 2013, 08:53:53 AM
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Nothing strange about a communist country giving their people freedom

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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Rannasha
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November 27, 2013, 09:03:19 AM
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Nothing strange about a communist country giving their people freedom

The only thing communist about China is the name of its ruling party.
maurya78
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November 27, 2013, 09:39:23 AM
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Sounds a touch optimistic

But let's wait and watch... Smiley

utarinues
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November 27, 2013, 10:17:14 AM
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Nothing strange about a communist country giving their people freedom

Yes, it is very strange indeed:

Last week, Yi Gang, the Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Deputy Governor of the Chinese Central Bank, said "people have the FREEDOM to trade bitcoin"


It means the government or at least some wealthy Chinese support Bitcoin, maybe to save some wealth
El Dude
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November 27, 2013, 11:43:16 AM
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Once btcchina starts trading Litecoin , a huge bull run will happen.

Bitcoin and Litecoin hodler
psyclon
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November 27, 2013, 05:30:04 PM
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Nothing strange about a communist country giving their people freedom

I wish more people understood this. China is more capitalist than the US in many ways.
accord01
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November 28, 2013, 09:07:46 AM
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not really more capitalistic... must bribe...

in other news... apollo china is about to take off
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November 28, 2013, 09:21:58 AM
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What makes Bitcoin so special in China, is the ability to send large sums of money out of China hedging it's exchange policy

There are lots of wealthy people in China, some of them got their money from shady deals or businesses. The problem they used to face is how to get money out of China, out of sight.

Bitcoin seems to be the perfect channel.
But, they are going to convert back to fiat in an overseas bitcoin exchange when the time comes.
emanymton
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November 28, 2013, 09:31:23 AM
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Nothing strange about a communist country giving their people freedom
Nothing communist about china except for the name.

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November 28, 2013, 09:36:34 AM
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What makes Bitcoin so special in China, is the ability to send large sums of money out of China hedging it's exchange policy

There are lots of wealthy people in China, some of them got their money from shady deals or businesses. The problem they used to face is how to get money out of China, out of sight.

Bitcoin seems to be the perfect channel.
But, they are going to convert back to fiat in an overseas bitcoin exchange when the time comes.

It's not so easy to get money out of China by buying BTC from the exchanges. First, you need a valid bank account before you can put money on the exchange. Second, you need more verification before you can increase the daily 10BTC withdraw limit. Moreover, all these transactions are recorded by the exchange. I don't think anyone who wants to bring a lot of money SECRETLY out of China will use exchanges. There are many other ways for them to do that with much less risks. Even if they choose BTC, they will buy them from others out of exchange.  
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November 28, 2013, 09:38:02 AM
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I wonder if there are any news about Litecoin in CCTV because it seems that china is tanking ltc as well
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November 28, 2013, 09:52:30 AM
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It means the government or at least some wealthy Chinese support Bitcoin, maybe to save some wealth

If you read the recent China planning paper (they put one out every 10 years) that came out a few weeks ago then you should know the government is switching public policy to favor more domestic consumption over exports. This means less demand for USD or other assets dependent on the West and a 'freeing up' of the domestic Chinese population to a more consumer culture. Bitcoin fits right into that strategy.

For example, if 1% of Chinese put $20 into Bitcoin then prices should go to about $10,000.

Bitcoin is a sterile asset like gold so when its price goes up it is largely acting as a wealth transfer from some other assets to Bitcoin. Like large storage vessels and the financial capital just goes from one tank to another through funds flow. Currently, Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies just happen to be an empty tank.

And so as the price goes up it will merely transfer wealth from bonds, real estate, stocks, currencies and commodities. Basically, the wealth in the Baby Boomer's retirement accounts and then the domestic Chinese will be able to spend it on crap.

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November 28, 2013, 10:56:30 AM
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It's not so easy to get money out of China by buying BTC from the exchanges. First, you need a valid bank account before you can put money on the exchange. Second, you need more verification before you can increase the daily 10BTC withdraw limit. Moreover, all these transactions are recorded by the exchange. I don't think anyone who wants to bring a lot of money SECRETLY out of China will use exchanges. There are many other ways for them to do that with much less risks. Even if they choose BTC, they will buy them from others out of exchange.  

Yes, you are correct.

I was commenting on Bitcoin as a currency being special for them, not specifically about Bitcoin bought from BTCChina
They can transfer money on their own, at home, without middle man and black market exchange rates
BitThink
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November 28, 2013, 11:00:56 AM
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It's not so easy to get money out of China by buying BTC from the exchanges. First, you need a valid bank account before you can put money on the exchange. Second, you need more verification before you can increase the daily 10BTC withdraw limit. Moreover, all these transactions are recorded by the exchange. I don't think anyone who wants to bring a lot of money SECRETLY out of China will use exchanges. There are many other ways for them to do that with much less risks. Even if they choose BTC, they will buy them from others out of exchange.  

Yes, you are correct.

I was commenting on Bitcoin as a currency being special for them, not specifically about Bitcoin bought from BTCChina
They can transfer money on their own, at home, without middle man and black market exchange rates

Yes, you are right. Bitcoin is much easier to be carried through the custom than cash or gold, and it's zero risk. That's definitely the best way to store value and carry it everywhere in the world. Smiley Now I am a little worried. What will the government do once they realize this. 
oakpacific
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November 28, 2013, 11:02:47 AM
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It's not so easy to get money out of China by buying BTC from the exchanges. First, you need a valid bank account before you can put money on the exchange. Second, you need more verification before you can increase the daily 10BTC withdraw limit. Moreover, all these transactions are recorded by the exchange. I don't think anyone who wants to bring a lot of money SECRETLY out of China will use exchanges. There are many other ways for them to do that with much less risks. Even if they choose BTC, they will buy them from others out of exchange.  

Yes, you are correct.

I was commenting on Bitcoin as a currency being special for them, not specifically about Bitcoin bought from BTCChina
They can transfer money on their own, at home, without middle man and black market exchange rates

No way.

Hardly anyone buys with bank accounts these days, every Chinese has an Alipay(or Tenpay) account, it's instant, friendly, versatile, and 24/7(just reminds you how much of a dinosaur the banking system really is)

It's actually part of the reason why China's volume was so crazy, we can move huge bunches of fiats into the exchanges nearly instantly, unchecked by banks.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
psyclon
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November 28, 2013, 11:17:03 AM
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It's not so easy to get money out of China by buying BTC from the exchanges. First, you need a valid bank account before you can put money on the exchange. Second, you need more verification before you can increase the daily 10BTC withdraw limit. Moreover, all these transactions are recorded by the exchange. I don't think anyone who wants to bring a lot of money SECRETLY out of China will use exchanges. There are many other ways for them to do that with much less risks. Even if they choose BTC, they will buy them from others out of exchange.  

Yes, you are correct.

I was commenting on Bitcoin as a currency being special for them, not specifically about Bitcoin bought from BTCChina
They can transfer money on their own, at home, without middle man and black market exchange rates

No way.

Hardly anyone buys with bank accounts these days, every Chinese has an Alipay(or Tenpay) account, it's instant, friendly, versatile, and 24/7(just reminds you how much of a dinosaur the banking system really is)

It's actually part of the reason why China's volume was so crazy, we can move huge bunches of fiats into the exchanges nearly instantly, unchecked by banks.

Just thought about this myself as well after spending the whole day thinking how to most efficeintly deposit money to btc-e without using sketchy russian services like this http://www.ecoin.cc/ and then waiting 10 days. Apparently there is no way around it unless you have a loaded mainland account.
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