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Author Topic: Some thoughts about the price in the short term, and potential corrections  (Read 653 times)
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November 28, 2013, 12:27:27 AM

In case anyone is interested in this email exchange. Regards, Javier, BGI
Hi Javier,

Sorry to have missed you at the Bitcoin Focus (...)
Could I possibly ask for you opinion on the current bitcoin price? Do you have any strong feelings as to when and at what price a crash or correction might occur?

Also, will we see you at the Bitcoin Expo on saturday?


Hi Richard,

Smiley Interesting question. The kind I am paid to respond. Will be free for you but you owe me one Wink

I am not keen on doing predictions on 1) short term and 2) temporary price of Bitcoin, because this is not my specialty, and the shorter the time frame of the predicition, the less statistically accurate we can be, and I don't trade on instinct in the short term (too small a market, too easily moved by whales and regulatory rumours, and too inexperienced "investors")

However, my personal opinion is that the trend upwards is solid and in line with previous patterns going up. However, there are some things to pay attention to, which can make another run up to 1500 or crash to a potential floor of between 600 and 800.

1) It is December. There may be some interesting announcements from retailers coming before xmass (apart from recent Shopify stuff) Bullish indicator.

2) Today price barrier was broken on $1000 in the West, this will produce another big wave of interest that will offer support towards a stable level over 1000 in the Western world. We'll see how China reacts overnight but I have not heard any news from there that would make price go down. In the West though, the price support may be lower than usual on a per-capita investment level, for potential investors will have less disposable income this month. (overall: bullish indicator)

3) The $1000 level may well have important significance for the big money waiting to get into BTC, and some may choose -purely based on intuition in some cases and due to taxes in others- to do it before the psychological mark of the end of the year. (Bullish indicator)
Main risk to Bitcoin -regulatory black swans- is minimal because few decisions are taken at the gov level anywhere, in December (and August).

Going forward, we are before the biggest financial bubble the world has ever seen, until regulatory stops in the first 6 months of next year fall over BTC, unless govs (particularly USA) run out of steam before that, or their cadres are already so corrupt that they change course and don't try to choke BTC so harshly.

Please do not consider this as financial advise. These are just my thoughts based on experience and partial data at hand. If you or your friends want a serious, in-depth report on anything related to BTC you can contact us as a client on and tell us exactly what questions you want answered and we'll provide a more accurate service for a fee.

And yes, I'll be attending the BTC expo, so see you on Saturday!

PS/ Since I have typed all this for you, we may post it online, so feel free so share it if you want, but keeping the text and the source, including signature intact, particularly the warning not to trade on this info, at the end.
Best wishes,

Javier Marti
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