Bitcoin and alt-coin rant

[slothbag]

My very rough estimate is that Bitcoin is currently 80-90% speculation and maybe 10-20% trade/commerce etc

In addition to being a store of value, I think a currency really needs some commerce, trading, bartering etc to provide a true price discovery and help stabilize the price, it gives it some utility, keeps it in everyone's face on a day to day basis.

I think Bitcoin would do better if it was a 50-50% spit..

Now we've got these alt-coins going nuts, with just about all of them increasing 100-200% in the past few days. I mean "InfiniteCoin" has doubled in value?? really? I thought we were trying to avoid the QE.

These alt coins are so far removed from any real price discovery that who knows what the real price is. I mean 1.2 billion dollar market cap for Litecoin, seriously? 

Satoshi started with a nice premise.. stop the inflation, lets have a currency limited to 21 million units. but now the greed has taken over and people are buying anything and everything and pumping the shit out of it trying to boost the price.  So now our 21 million units is now 21m + 84m (litecoin) plus billions more spread across 40 other alt coins.  In our greed we've collectively become our own Ben Bernanke..

Then you've got the likes of Max Keiser relentlessly pumping Bitcoin, and now pumping Litecoin (right after he bought a shitload no doubt).  I mean within days of his price prediction for Litecoin the price rose to with $1 of his target.. Its clear as day he is leading the herd on that one, and he is having a similar effect on bitcoin prices.. i mean would it hurt to say "Now prices will consolidate for a while".. no need to pump this thing like silver..

The world of decentralized crypto-currencies is determined by consensus.. if we collectively agree that 21 million units is not enough then we will all adopt more altcoins and increase the number.. but I liked the 21 million idea, i'm going to cast my vote for just one, Bitcoin, and to support that I will only shop with merchants and exchanges who deal in only Bitcoin.  If a merchant chooses to accept other altcoins then you've lost my business.

So join me in casting your vote for Bitcoin, shop where Bitcoins are the only cypto currency accepted.

/rant

[Tirapon]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bxrrw/playing_devils_advocate_why_bitcoin_will_crash_to/c9bhvme

[PinkPotatos]

There is a very interesting here
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/20/money-trading-economy-foreign-exchange-markets-economy

[PenAndPaper]

Satoshi started with a nice premise.. stop the inflation, lets have a currency limited to 21 million units.

Satoshi wanted to stop inflation? That's news to me. Do you have a link to that?

[slothbag]

There is a very interesting here
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/20/money-trading-economy-foreign-exchange-markets-economy

Thanks, so the gist here is given the choice of either a healthy stable economy or profit greatly, just about everyone chooses profit greatly.. and thats what we are seeing right now with the altcoins.

[slothbag]

Satoshi started with a nice premise.. stop the inflation, lets have a currency limited to 21 million units.

Satoshi wanted to stop inflation? That's news to me. Do you have a link to that?

Sorry, maybe not inflation specifically, but the bank bailouts and central bank money printing etc..

[PinkPotatos]

There is a very interesting here
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/20/money-trading-economy-foreign-exchange-markets-economy

Thanks, so the gist here is given the choice of either a healthy stable economy or profit greatly, just about everyone chooses profit greatly.. and thats what we are seeing right now with the altcoins.

That is exactly what we are seeing, and why the coins with huge inflation have such high market caps. Greed has taken over.

[d'aniel]

There is a very interesting here
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/20/money-trading-economy-foreign-exchange-markets-economy

Thanks, so the gist here is given the choice of either a healthy stable economy or profit greatly, just about everyone chooses profit greatly.. and thats what we are seeing right now with the altcoins.

I like to think this is just a pathology caused by the shitty post Bretton Woods system, and that the world market would otherwise naturally converge on a standard currency if left to its own devices, which it can't do because nation states won't give up their regional currency monopolies.  I guess we're currently seeing this experiment happen on a small scale with Bitcoin and the alt-coins.  

[PenAndPaper]

I like to think this is just a pathology caused by the shitty post Bretton Woods system

You are overthinking this. People think that bitcoin and litecoin are almost the same thing while litecoin is cheaper and has more potential.

[d'aniel]

I like to think this is just a pathology caused by the shitty post Bretton Woods system

You are overthinking this. People think that bitcoin and litecoin are almost the same thing while litecoin is cheaper and has more potential.

I was talking about our international currency system talked about in the article PinkPotatos posted.

[franky1]

the way i imagine it is like this.

imagine bitcoin was the Euro.

if we all accept Euro and had only one body of leadership Eurozone/bitcoin foundation. they will inevitably want to conform to the laws of where they live eurozone in germany/bitcoin in america. which leaves other countries in disagreement. some countries then want to split away from the euro/bitcoin and adopt their own currency.

EG americans love bitcoin, alot of european developers love litecoin, australians love ozcoin, and a few UK folk like feathercoin.

even so bitcoin will remain dominant and the freedom of people to choose their preferred coin should be that, a freedom. we should not require referendums and politics to dictate currencies (which is currently happening in UK and europe)

[Hawker]

Its going to be very hard to get merchants to accept even 1 cryptocurrency.  The cost in software and in training staff is very high.  There is no way they will install support for 2.

There can only be one. 

[gsingh]

Its going to be very hard to get merchants to accept even 1 cryptocurrency.  The cost in software and in training staff is very high.  There is no way they will install support for 2.

There can only be one. 

I disagree. If a merchant can accept Bitcoin, he can also accept Litecoin without almost any extra infrastructure cost.     

[laowai80]

Its going to be very hard to get merchants to accept even 1 cryptocurrency.  The cost in software and in training staff is very high.  There is no way they will install support for 2.

There can only be one.  

Merchants don't need to train staff for any cryptocurrencies. Online merchants at least. All they need to do is sign up for a processing account, that accepts a bunch of cryptos and converts them into fiat currencies on the fly. Users can use any of those cryptos to pay, the processing site uses current exchange rate to convert to USD or whatever fiat merchant chooses. That's how it works. At least until fiat currencies exist and merchants need to pay their business fees in fiat.

I am sure down the road offline stores can also install a device that can recognize QR-code of any crypto from user's smartphone or paper bill and again, this device would be connected to a processing center to immediately convert into fiat. Staff don't need to be trained any more than they were trained to swipe a credit card, no matter what card it is - visa, master card, etc.

[freet0pian]

Its going to be very hard to get merchants to accept even 1 cryptocurrency.  The cost in software and in training staff is very high.  There is no way they will install support for 2.

There can only be one. 

So you think 0% of the merchant's software can be reused from bitcoin to an altcoin.

Just like none of the altcoins use any parts of bitcoin protocol/software... [sarc]

[Hawker]

Its going to be very hard to get merchants to accept even 1 cryptocurrency.  The cost in software and in training staff is very high.  There is no way they will install support for 2.

There can only be one. 

I disagree. If a merchant can accept Bitcoin, he can also accept Litecoin without almost any extra infrastructure cost.     

I suspect the difference between us is that I have run shops and trained people to take credit card payments.  It takes time.  And staff turnover is high so anything that adds to that time is bad.  Technically you are correct but in business terms, you will find that people dealing with the public will not want to handle 50 altcoins. I expect a trade body will endorse 1 and that will cause the entire market to use that one.

[Coma]

My very rough estimate is that Bitcoin is currently 80-90% speculation and maybe 10-20% trade/commerce etc

What's your estimation on speculation and trade/commerce % for US dollar?

[freet0pian]

Its going to be very hard to get merchants to accept even 1 cryptocurrency.  The cost in software and in training staff is very high.  There is no way they will install support for 2.

There can only be one. 

I disagree. If a merchant can accept Bitcoin, he can also accept Litecoin without almost any extra infrastructure cost.     

I suspect the difference between us is that I have run shops and trained people to take credit card payments.  It takes time.  And staff turnover is high so anything that adds to that time is bad.  Technically you are correct but in business terms, you will find that people dealing with the public will not want to handle 50 altcoins. I expect a trade body will endorse 1 and that will cause the entire market to use that one.

Throwing just some thoughts here. So Visa hasn't got ANY competition?

[Hawker]

Its going to be very hard to get merchants to accept even 1 cryptocurrency.  The cost in software and in training staff is very high.  There is no way they will install support for 2.

There can only be one. 

I disagree. If a merchant can accept Bitcoin, he can also accept Litecoin without almost any extra infrastructure cost.     

I suspect the difference between us is that I have run shops and trained people to take credit card payments.  It takes time.  And staff turnover is high so anything that adds to that time is bad.  Technically you are correct but in business terms, you will find that people dealing with the public will not want to handle 50 altcoins. I expect a trade body will endorse 1 and that will cause the entire market to use that one.

Throwing just some thoughts here. So Visa hasn't got ANY competition?

Essentially no.  Newcomers have been locked out of that market for a long long time.

Not sure why you mention it though?  All credit cards use the same machine for payment so you train for 1 you train for all.  Bitcoin is an alternative to the dollar as well as an alternative to credit cards. 

Or are you thinking that Bitcoin payments would be done via the same credit card terminals? 

[farfiman]

Or are you thinking that Bitcoin payments would be done via the same credit card terminals? 

The same POS for all altcoins- for sure.  The same terminal with credit cards?  Of course!