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Author Topic: The three common speculations about the current trend.  (Read 740 times)
Ridi
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August 07, 2011, 01:49:24 AM
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Alright, so we have an unprecedented event with an unprecedented currency. People are speculating, which is great, and people are bickering like old cows, which is not so great.

So far it looks like there are three theories out there.  One is that the market is gonna crash to zero, and stick do to a loss of faith across the economic board, another that the currency will stabilize at a market supported rate after speculators leave the game (estimates range from 1 USD to 6) and finally that the market will experience another speculative spike after the market gets a chance to deflate the previous one (estimates range from any minute now to really low).

I have my opinions, but topics have gotten so heated because everyone is taking contradictory opinions to either be offensive, or idiotic.  This is the speculation forum, can we discuss our speculations while yelling troll and idiot a little less.  It doesn't matter what theory you buy into, we shouldn't discuss this as if each and every person invested beyond their means.  It's an obviously wrong assumption, and comments regarding people who you feel made idiotic decisions, or are making idiotic decisions, need to be projected in a speculative light.

No matter how much you buy into your own theory, you most likely wouldn't bet your life savings on it.  We're not at a sure thing right now.  Let's not pretend too know the future
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Vandroiy
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August 07, 2011, 02:03:44 AM
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I agree!

I think the three theories named are all likely (>10%), so it's stupid to yell at people who support either of them. It's just bad etiquette to act like knowing everything AND calling everybody with different opinions stupid.

Just BTW, the majority of people who talked that way were utterly wrong. Remember the 30-spike, where everybody was flamed who didn't believe in an exponential rise above 100 USD/BTC within a month or so? I guess there's a negative correlation between the ability to consider other peoples' models and being wrong in the end.

So, yes, please don't flame people for having a different opinion.
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August 07, 2011, 02:14:59 AM
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No sooner than I write this post, than do I read 2 really good discussions on the market.  I guess that it helps that I chose topics with non inflammatory headlines.  Moral of the story- Don't be an absolutist nazi in your headline or OP if you want to be taken seriously.
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August 07, 2011, 02:19:29 AM
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I subscribe to a version of theory #3: we're in a speculative (or manipulated) downward spike.  After this, price will snap back up ($10). 

Anyone with $100k + of funds on mtgox can move this thin and shaky market, and they will do so in a way which maximizes their gain.  The competition right now is to push it as low as it can go and buy there, before letting it snap back up by removing their own ask walls.

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