Correction Overdue

[xavier]

We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.

All the warning signs are in place.

We could hit 400-600 soon.

EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.

My prediction.

[billym2k]

Based on..?

[PenAndPaper]

Based on..?

Isn't his psychic abilities pretty obvious. I for one am convinced 

[Buster]

How did you calculate 75%?

[notme]

How did you calculate 75%?

Divide 3 by 4.

[Ozymandias]

Holy shit, we could be back to where we were 8-9 days ago!?!

[mogrith]

is that a down swing TO 75% (~750) or OF 75% (~250)?

either way where does 400-600 fit in?

[Okurkabinladin]

Hi guys

We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.

All the warning signs are in place.

We could hit 400-600 soon.

EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.

My prediction.

China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.

[C10H15N]

What is "correct" for bitcoin? 

[xavier]

EDIT: removed 75% , see below.

75% is movement from 250 to 50... what we saw back in March/April.

Since then, swings have definitely been decreasing in percentage terms, and bitcoin has been becoming less volatile.  Except for the past few weeks. For example , we moved 45% around 10 days ago.

So, I don't think we have another 75% movement occuring this time. However, we had a 26% correction at 9th/10th Nov , a 40% correction at 19/20th Nov , now we are approaching 30 Nov / 1 Dec , it makes sense for something similar to occur.

(Qualitative) warning signs:

* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea

(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)

* media becoming more positive

* increasing complacency generally

Difficult to put a quantative figure on it , but we're definitely getting close to a correction of some time  - where all these weak hands who have recently bought in begin to sell.

This is only of concern to the short term trader as bitcoin has always recovered eventually from these corrections.

[xavier]

Hi guys

We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.

All the warning signs are in place.

We could hit 400-600 soon.

EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.

My prediction.

China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.

China is sleeping right now. Only the west is trading. (Time in China 0300)

Another warning sign people get to complacent. There is no China trading right now!

[Nemesis]

Hi guys

We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.

All the warning signs are in place.

We could hit 400-600 soon.

EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.

My prediction.

China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.

China is sleeping right now. Only the west is trading. (Time in China 0300)

Another warning sign people get to complacent. There is no China trading right now!

OP you should have This in the first post:

Disclaimer: The following message is coming straight out of my ass. Please make investment responsibly.

[NUFCrichard]

In that it can't go up in a straight line forever, yes a correction is due.  But it isn't happening in the markets, so why should it happen in bitcoin!

[bitleif]

(Qualitative) warning signs:

* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea

(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)

Question is if they've just started buying now or if they've already bought. The "dumb" (uninformed) money tends to come in after a bubble has run for a while, and extend it further.

I do agree that conditions around here in the forum are getting a bit .. giddy, though.

[favelle75]

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April?  Or 2012?  Or last week....?  It doesn't matter.

[PenAndPaper]

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April?  Or 2012?  Or last week....?  It doesn't matter.

Well using data is the only way to estimate the future. Psychic abilities is also a way but aren't yet scientifically proven  

[dalamchops]

We did already have a correction to 400 last time it broke 1000 in china

[Kleptoid]

Intuition is not magic, it's just a thought process one is not conscious of.

[PenAndPaper]

Intuition is not magic, it's just a thought process one is not conscious of.

Intuition is enough when you have to think of simple things like "am i going to have a good time in the party tonight?"
Not for chaotic situations lile price movement. (Although some parties can be pretty chaotic as well)

[Okurkabinladin]

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April?  Or 2012?  Or last week....?  It doesn't matter.

It does matter. Market ultimately revolves around psychology and human mind never really changes.