Reality Check

[windjc]

So, let's cut bitcoin a break here, shall we. Quit screaming at the baby for christ sakes.

Sorry but at $10 billion it stopped being a baby. Any tech in 'baby' stage should be valued at a fraction of that  - which is the underlying point here.

Oh I see. So because its a popular baby, it should be able to drive a car. Ok.

Its not bitcoins fault that it is so popular. Do you REALLY think the popularity is by ACCIDENT? There are fu*kton of brilliant and wealthy people involved in this project.

So just because everyone wants to invest in Bitcoin (except you) you get to criticize Bitcoin for being overvalued?  You get to say that Bitcoin will fail, just because its got a 10 billion market cap? I'm sorry, but thats a REALLY weak case.

Make a real case against what Bitcoin and its eco-system CAN'T become over the next 5-10 years and quit whining about the price.

[Kleptoid]

Sorry but at $10 billion it stopped being a baby. Any tech in 'baby' stage should be valued at a fraction of that  - which is the underlying point here.

Apples an oranges. Bitcoin is not a single tech company, it is remotely possible that it is an internet of money. If that turns out to be the case then it would be fairer to compare it to the sum of all internet companies. In January 2012 NASDAQ had a market cap of $4.45 trillion.

[bootlace]

So, let's cut bitcoin a break here, shall we. Quit screaming at the baby for christ sakes.

Sorry but at $10 billion it stopped being a baby. Any tech in 'baby' stage should be valued at a fraction of that  - which is the underlying point here.

Oh I see. So because its a popular baby, it should be able to drive a car. Ok.

Its not bitcoins fault that it is so popular. Do you REALLY think the popularity is by ACCIDENT? There are fu*kton of brilliant and wealthy people involved in this project.

So just because everyone wants to invest in Bitcoin (except you) you get to criticize Bitcoin for being overvalued?  You get to say that Bitcoin will fail, just because its got a 10 billion market cap? I'm sorry, but thats a REALLY weak case.

Make a real case against what Bitcoin and its eco-system CAN'T become over the next 5-10 years and quit whining about the price.

Geez, no need to get so worked up.. this is a forum and we're exchanging different points of view. Didn't say Bitcoin will fail, I said its overvalued.

I already told you exactly why I thought so: limited liquidity in barely functioning exchanges coupled with super speculative investors are determining a price that is not sustainable in the least bit nor is it even real because not only do exchanges not have billions of dollars but their banks wouldn't even let them pay it if they did. I could make more arguments but I doubt it matters - people are highly sensitive concerning their ticket to potential riches.

[bitleif]

I don't think there's anything "ridiculous" about the current price - in the long term.

I DO think we might have gotten here a bit too fast. My personal opinion is that the graphs are looking a quite bit toppish right now, and sentiments here are extremely bullish (which is exactly when you'd expect a big correction.) The problem with bubbles is that they're easy to spot but very hard to time.

[windjc]

So, let's cut bitcoin a break here, shall we. Quit screaming at the baby for christ sakes.

Sorry but at $10 billion it stopped being a baby. Any tech in 'baby' stage should be valued at a fraction of that  - which is the underlying point here.

Oh I see. So because its a popular baby, it should be able to drive a car. Ok.

Its not bitcoins fault that it is so popular. Do you REALLY think the popularity is by ACCIDENT? There are fu*kton of brilliant and wealthy people involved in this project.

So just because everyone wants to invest in Bitcoin (except you) you get to criticize Bitcoin for being overvalued?  You get to say that Bitcoin will fail, just because its got a 10 billion market cap? I'm sorry, but thats a REALLY weak case.

Make a real case against what Bitcoin and its eco-system CAN'T become over the next 5-10 years and quit whining about the price.

Geez, no need to get so worked up.. this is a forum and we're exchanging different points of view. Didn't say Bitcoin will fail, I said its overvalued.

I already told you exactly why I thought so: limited liquidity in barely functioning exchanges coupled with super speculative investors are determining a price that is not sustainable in the least bit nor is it even real because not only do exchanges not have billions of dollars but their banks wouldn't even let them pay it if they did. I could make more arguments but I doubt it matters - people are highly sensitive concerning their ticket to potential riches.

Didn't mean to sound to harsh, my words were more for the other poster. However, this point you reiterate I ignored originally because it makes no sense. The exchanges have the money that people send them. What extra money do they need. If the price goes up it does so because more money is sent to them by traders. If the price goes down is does so because money is being withdrawn.

Why did your account get frozen? Are you talking about Gox? Did you not verify your account? Your story sounds more suspicious than Bitcoin's price.

[windjc]

I don't think there's anything "ridiculous" about the current price - in the long term.

I DO think we might have gotten here a bit too fast. My personal opinion is that the graphs are looking a quite bit toppish right now, and sentiments here are extremely bullish (which is exactly when you'd expect a big correction.) The problem with bubbles is that they're easy to spot but very hard to time.

This "Bubble" if it is a bubble, is not like any of the other previous bubbles (yet!).

2011, the market rose from 19 to 32 in just over 24 hours before entering a bear market. In 2013 the market rose from 140 to 266 in just over 72 hours before entering a bear market.

And that's what we are talking about here, right? Starting a bear market. Because otherwise its just a correction, not a crash. And we just had a pretty big correction just 10 days ago. Remember? It went from 900-500.

So, when does this bubble pop exactly? Is this one just going to start going down and down and down for no reason out of the blue?

Maybe. But that would be unprecedented.

[Mjbmonetarymetals]

Roughly 10 billion has moved into the cryptocurrency sector in a month, even Ben bernanke gave it a nod of approval imagine what that would have done for gold or silver , so I say it's the bernanke effect after all he is head of the printing presses , the QE Program is churning out 85 billion dollars per month making bitcoins market cap look tiny   

I think it'll continue the same cycle parabolic rise, correction, parabolic rise, correction . Next stop $3000 as it moves higher inevitably it divides and spreads into more hands as the urge to sell increases with each parabolic spike . 

It's interesting to compare it to Internet adoption - 

https://nwww.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=Litecoin&cmpt=q
https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=Bitcoin&cmpt=q

I still remember what I thought about the Internet, email, even utube, when I first heard about them , Internet=what on earths the interweb,  email=who am I going to need to email, utube=who wants to sit and watch other people's home movies 

A conversation you might have in years to come 

Donald :yes I got to know about Bitcoin quite early on old boy.

Randy: that's great Donald, boy that sure is swell you must be rich enough to buy Buckinghamshire palace.

Donald: if only........I sold all my bitcoin when they reached £5000 

Randy : awkward silence 

Donald : awkward silence 

Randy : that sucks. 

[bootlace]

So, let's cut bitcoin a break here, shall we. Quit screaming at the baby for christ sakes.

Sorry but at $10 billion it stopped being a baby. Any tech in 'baby' stage should be valued at a fraction of that  - which is the underlying point here.

Oh I see. So because its a popular baby, it should be able to drive a car. Ok.

Its not bitcoins fault that it is so popular. Do you REALLY think the popularity is by ACCIDENT? There are fu*kton of brilliant and wealthy people involved in this project.

So just because everyone wants to invest in Bitcoin (except you) you get to criticize Bitcoin for being overvalued?  You get to say that Bitcoin will fail, just because its got a 10 billion market cap? I'm sorry, but thats a REALLY weak case.

Make a real case against what Bitcoin and its eco-system CAN'T become over the next 5-10 years and quit whining about the price.

Geez, no need to get so worked up.. this is a forum and we're exchanging different points of view. Didn't say Bitcoin will fail, I said its overvalued.

I already told you exactly why I thought so: limited liquidity in barely functioning exchanges coupled with super speculative investors are determining a price that is not sustainable in the least bit nor is it even real because not only do exchanges not have billions of dollars but their banks wouldn't even let them pay it if they did. I could make more arguments but I doubt it matters - people are highly sensitive concerning their ticket to potential riches.

Didn't mean to sound to harsh, my words were more for the other poster. However, this point you reiterate I ignored originally because it makes no sense. The exchanges have the money that people send them. What extra money do they need. If the price goes up it does so because more money is sent to them by traders. If the price goes down is does so because money is being withdrawn.

Why did your account get frozen? Are you talking about Gox? Did you not verify your account? Your story sounds more suspicious than Bitcoin's price.

You only need 6500 coin purchase to push the price up to 1500 on Gox. So you spend less than 10 million dollars and you can increase the market cap by 4 billion dollars. Does that sound right to you?

My account, and everyone else's, got frozen on BTC-24.com since April. Some recently got their BTC back, most people with fiat still have their money tied up waiting for some obscure investigation. Of course we weren't able to take advantage of this recent surge. Whatever, shit happens.

But Im just warning those that have money in these exchanges to cash out while they can (especially in countries like China where you might NEVER get access back to it if something happens). If youve paid attention, my main gripe is with these exchanges - I don't believe they are suitable for handling billions of dollars of money.

[Mjbmonetarymetals]

Bullish = exchanges will evolve over time, improving become more transparent increasingly accountable. 

Bearish = exchanges will always rip us off in future. 

[bootlace]

Bootlace,

most of what you say is true. Exchanges suck. Technology is not ready for the masses today.

But none of this information is hidden, every body with more than 1 BTC to "cash out" knows it and already factors it in when deciding to sell.

What is included in the price is the "potential" of bitcoin. Even if we are greedy speculators we all known that the potential is huge. Really really huge.

We also know that bitcoin's future is mostly binary :
- Either it fails, and then the price will go to exactly zero
- or it succeeds, and then the price will go to heaven. How high exactly is something nobody can predict.

Right now people's bet is on the second option...

Yes everyone is free to do as they like and I probably would be in the same boat of riding the magic wave if I didnt have this horrible experience. But this kind of experience is not rare or new for Bitcoin, and I haven't seen any maturity/progression to suggest it won't happen again. Just wanted to send a friendly reminder to some: cash in a portion once in a while, you really never know what kind of BS is going to happen on the exchanges whether it be hacks, or bank problems or some government authorities stepping in, or a good old fashioned crash.

[bitleif]

So, when does this bubble pop exactly? Is this one just going to start going down and down and down for no reason out of the blue?

Well that's what bubbles tend to do when/if they pop. I don't know what's going to happen, I'm just pointing out the signals I'm seeing.

[notme]

You only need 6500 coin purchase to push the price up to 1500 on Gox. So you spend less than 10 million dollars and you can increase the market cap by 4 billion dollars. Does that sound right to you?

No, that doesn't sound right, because that's not how it works.  Unless you can make the exchanges move together, you are just handing money to arbitragers.

[AWSOM]

Especially hardcore bitcoin believers need a reality check. They only see the advantages of bitcoin, and deny most of the disadvantages.

Oh well, time will learn.

[Miz4r]

I think the bitcoin non-believers need a reality check. More bubbles and crashes are to come, but if you are unable to look more than a few weeks or months ahead and see the bigger picture in front of you I'm afraid you simply deserve to be left behind. It's financial darwinism at its best.

[BitchicksHusband]

So, let's cut bitcoin a break here, shall we. Quit screaming at the baby for christ sakes.

Sorry but at $10 billion it stopped being a baby. Any tech in 'baby' stage should be valued at a fraction of that  - which is the underlying point here.

Oh I see. So because its a popular baby, it should be able to drive a car. Ok.

Its not bitcoins fault that it is so popular. Do you REALLY think the popularity is by ACCIDENT? There are fu*kton of brilliant and wealthy people involved in this project.

So just because everyone wants to invest in Bitcoin (except you) you get to criticize Bitcoin for being overvalued?  You get to say that Bitcoin will fail, just because its got a 10 billion market cap? I'm sorry, but thats a REALLY weak case.

Make a real case against what Bitcoin and its eco-system CAN'T become over the next 5-10 years and quit whining about the price.

Geez, no need to get so worked up.. this is a forum and we're exchanging different points of view. Didn't say Bitcoin will fail, I said its overvalued.

I already told you exactly why I thought so: limited liquidity in barely functioning exchanges coupled with super speculative investors are determining a price that is not sustainable in the least bit nor is it even real because not only do exchanges not have billions of dollars but their banks wouldn't even let them pay it if they did. I could make more arguments but I doubt it matters - people are highly sensitive concerning their ticket to potential riches.

Didn't mean to sound to harsh, my words were more for the other poster. However, this point you reiterate I ignored originally because it makes no sense. The exchanges have the money that people send them. What extra money do they need. If the price goes up it does so because more money is sent to them by traders. If the price goes down is does so because money is being withdrawn.

Why did your account get frozen? Are you talking about Gox? Did you not verify your account? Your story sounds more suspicious than Bitcoin's price.

You only need 6500 coin purchase to push the price up to 1500 on Gox. So you spend less than 10 million dollars and you can increase the market cap by 4 billion dollars. Does that sound right to you?

My account, and everyone else's, got frozen on BTC-24.com since April. Some recently got their BTC back, most people with fiat still have their money tied up waiting for some obscure investigation. Of course we weren't able to take advantage of this recent surge. Whatever, shit happens.

But Im just warning those that have money in these exchanges to cash out while they can (especially in countries like China where you might NEVER get access back to it if something happens). If youve paid attention, my main gripe is with these exchanges - I don't believe they are suitable for handling billions of dollars of money.

Yeah, I had some money tied up in Bitfloor for a while when it shut down.  Oh, wait, it was only $500 because I don't trust ANY exchange and immediately move all my coins to offline cold storage.

I do think you have a point that a massive investor could drive the price to $1500 instantly (but it would correct to $1200 just as instantly).  And that if there was a "bank run" these exchanges would have a problem coming up with the funds, which could crash the price.

The question then becomes, do you believe in the long-term potential of bitcoin and buy more cheap or does everyone see it as a failed experiment?

[johnyj]

You can buy BFL single 50GH now with $2500, it will mine 0.04 bitcoin at today's difficulty, and in a difficulty rise at 20% each jump, it will mine 2 coins during its life time. Divide $2500 by 2 coins, you get $1250 per coin, that is the lowest possible cost of one coin

Although the demand is very high (trillions of dollars of savings are ready to be converted into bitcoin, since they are losing purchasing power each passing day), investors will always find the lowest possible cost, which is mining, when mining costs too much, they will buy coins directly on exchange

That's the reality

[notme]

You can buy BFL single 50GH now with $2500, it will mine 0.04 bitcoin at today's difficulty, and in a difficulty rise at 20% each jump, it will mine 2 coins during its life time. Divide $2500 by 2 coins, you get $1250 per coin, that is the lowest possible cost of one coin

Although the demand is very high (trillions of dollars of savings are ready to be converted into bitcoin, since they are losing purchasing power each passing day), investors will always find the lowest possible cost, which is mining, when mining costs too much, they will buy coins directly on exchange

That's the reality

Damn, I hadn't realized we were already near break even prices on BFL miners.  I hope for the sake of my mining income we don't move much higher for now.  We could use a break on the difficulty rises.

[piramida]

Quit screaming at the baby for christ sakes.

haha good one on a more serious note, I invite all the bears come to the btc1k.com party in berlin and raise your concerns there, why limit yourself just to the speculating audience.

[Hawker]

...snip...

I didn't really cash out, I sold in middle of 200's when the April bubble was crashing (it was so obvious with the Gox lag that it would have been criminal not to) and was planning to buy back in upper double digits but the exchange has been frozen ever since then.

Am I bitter? Yes. But Im not here to try to fool anyone or try to get cheap coins or anything because like I said all my money for investment is frozen.

I just shared some of the Bitcoin worries I had after thinking about for the past couple of months - you don't need to treat anyone who voices concerns as some evil person hellbent on getting your coins.

What exchange has been frozen since April?  I sold 500 in June and had no problem getting the money out of Gox.