1% of offshore tax haven bank accounts in bitcoin = $2.8million/btc -trace mayer

[niothor]

There isn't $30T in cash in off shore accounts.  there are $30T in ASSETS in offshore accounts.  Big difference.

Globally the entire M2 is roughly $25T, there is only ~$5T of M0 (currency).   However total global wealth (stocks, bonds, precious metals, property, patents, land, etc) is ~$240T.

Are you wikipedia or something?
I'm sometimes reading you post hunting for a mistake:)))))

[cr1776]

True.  People are treating bitcoin as an asset and store of value even more so now, so it can tap into more than just the currency market - which I think was your point. :-)

There isn't $30T in cash in off shore accounts.  there are $30T in ASSETS in offshore accounts.  Big difference.

Globally the entire M2 is roughly $25T, there is only ~$5T of M0 (currency).   However total global wealth (stocks, bonds, precious metals, property, patents, land, etc) is ~$240T.

[itsjustme]

Cayman Islands agrees to report US citizens’ offshore assets under controversial law

http://rt.com/business/cayman-tax-report-agreement-505/

The Cayman Islands has signed an agreement with the United States to combat offshore tax evasion pursuant to a controversial 2010 law that has caused some notable US expatriates to revoke their US citizenship.

...


The US agreed Tuesday to send Costa Rica tax information to its government regarding Costa Rican citizens with accounts in the US.

[Luckybit]

"If you moved just 1% of the cash balances from off shore tax haven bank accounts, which currently hold estimated 30 trillion dollars of value, if you move just 1% of that into bitcoin you are looking at 2.8 million dollars per bitcoin"

That was a quote from trace mayer from (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwmgeeFB-E&t=7m15s)

Is this right? Can anyone point out a flaw in this reasoning? That 1% figure makes 2.8 million dollars per bitcoin sound oddly conservative and saying 2.8 million dollars per btc is conservative makes me feel like i sound like I'm out of my mind. What do you guys think?

But that will never happen in that way. Bitcoin is a terrible tax haven because it's not cash, it's not anonymous, everyone can trace it whether it be Mallory or Gordon.

I would say it will definitely get over $10,000-100,000. It might get into the highs of $500,000-700,000 or even reach $1,000,000 but if it does it will not be because of people trying to avoid taxes and even if it is that wouldn't stop the IRS from confiscating.

Having said that if they do that and the tax cheats get their coins confiscated then the price will only rise much more for people who file their taxes. Criminals who hoard coins and who get arrested cannot spend their coins and so the price goes up again.

[Slingshot]

Correction:

 There is "officially" just over 1 trillion in Federal Reserve Notes (so called US Dollars) worldwide.
============================================================



 Of the physical 1 trillion or so, most of that is offshore. All the rest is merely digital.


 At any rate just over 1 trillion physical dollars exist, officially (hint?). I don't recall the exact number but 1.1T rings a bell.




 A good place to learn all things financial is of all places this http://dollarcollapse.com/

and

http://www.shadowstats.com/



Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware!

[mel2000]

...If they do that and the tax cheats get their coins confiscated then the price will only rise much more for people who file their taxes. Criminals who hoard coins and who get arrested cannot spend their coins and so the price goes up again.

They will have to pay their taxes+penalties and they might get jail time, but they won't have all their coins confiscated.

[Le Happy Merchant]

I think the error is in saying "Just 1%", which IMHO is more than would be allocated to bitcoin even at it's prime.

If you have an offshore account you have some wealth. You won't be putting a large % of your cash into bitcoin.

So now you have 3% of 2% of offshore wealth in bitcoin, which is 0.06% of that 30 trillion dollars. That would be about $168k/BTC.

You can revise what you feel is more realistic, but your equation should account for (level of adoption %) x (% allocation in bitcoin given adoption).

Don't forget that an estimated 65% of bitcoins has never been moved, and is likely to be lost.

[sunnankar]

Globally the entire M2 is roughly $25T, there is only ~$5T of M0 (currency).

Not sure how you are measuring since everything is so convoluted anyway. But the US is considered one of the largest tax havens and this is from Wikipedia on the FDIC:

As of September 30, 2012, total deposits at FDIC-insured institutions totaled roughly $10.54 trillion, although not all deposits are insured.

Another interesting article from ABC News.

[beetcoin]

I think the error is in saying "Just 1%", which IMHO is more than would be allocated to bitcoin even at it's prime.

If you have an offshore account you have some wealth. You won't be putting a large % of your cash into bitcoin.

So now you have 3% of 2% of offshore wealth in bitcoin, which is 0.06% of that 30 trillion dollars. That would be about $168k/BTC.

You can revise what you feel is more realistic, but your equation should account for (level of adoption %) x (% allocation in bitcoin given adoption).

Don't forget that an estimated 65% of bitcoins has never been moved, and is likely to be lost.

are you saying that you think 65% of bitcoins are likely lost? maybe they've never been moved, but i strong doubt that even half of those coins have been lost. satoshi has 1.5 million of those, and i doubt he's somehow lost his PW. he just hasn't touched the coins in a long time.