|
December 01, 2013, 07:49:10 AM |
|
Has anyone considered that it might actually be the market growing that is causing the drop?
The assumption that something's price will go up if the market grows is legit, but is it really true for bitcoin in the short run?
Suppose I have a bitcoin and I do not spend it. The bitcoin has a value of the current price of bitcoin, let's say X. If a new person buys another bitcoin, the price will go up.
Now suppose I spend the bitcoin for a service. The merchant takes my coin and exchanges it for X at an exchange. This coin is bought by the other person and the price stays the same (X).
Unless I buy in the same amount of coin I had, I basically cashed out. This means that even though publicity and other factors are at hand, buying bitcoin to spend it immediately and when it is immediately turned back into fiat is a null operation. The market grows the longer the bitcoin are being held. The price will start to go up if people start to stock bitcoins from purchases. Or if people buy bitcoins and stock them without immediately buying.
This means that on every big sale day (such as black friday) the price is most likely to drop due to vendors cashing out.
|