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Author Topic: Did anyone's technical analysis correctly call the drop from $13 to $5.75?  (Read 2106 times)
netrin
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August 08, 2011, 05:18:43 PM
 #21

If enough people believe a particular pattern produces a predictable pattern, then they will collectively make it happen. If due to publicly visible tea leaves I believe the price will drop, then I will sell as will many others who are also watching the same tea leaves. Whether or not the tea leaves have any correlation to the asset is irrelevant if the tea leaves influence behavior and behavior IS the market. You may choose to bet against the herd, but you would be ill advised to ignore the herd nor ignore what the herd is watching.

Poker is also a game of chance. But statistics and psychology help not a little.

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August 08, 2011, 05:22:29 PM
 #22

Poker is also a game of chance. But statistics and psychology help not a little.

I agree. A quick course in Psychology beats everything ever written on TA.

(That's why I suggested Animal Spirits, which is all about psychology and herd mentality in economics)

A Random Walk .. is the book that conclusively proves TA has no predictive power.
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August 08, 2011, 05:30:01 PM
 #23

If enough people believe a particular pattern produces a predictable pattern, then they will collectively make it happen. If due to publicly visible tea leaves I believe the price will drop, then I will sell as will many others who are also watching the same tea leaves. Whether or not the tea leaves have any correlation to the asset is irrelevant if the tea leaves influence behavior and behavior IS the market. You may choose to bet against the herd, but you would be ill advised to ignore the herd nor ignore what the herd is watching.

Poker is also a game of chance. But statistics and psychology help not a little.

The above is quite correct, with two caveats:

1) Collective behaviour will take you so far, but past that point there are forces that are much stronger.

2) There are still hidden variables in this game. In poker, you at least know how many cards in a deck... things like the mybitcoin fiasco (and bitomat, and mtgox a few weeks back, and so on) are the equivalent of adding two extra aces to the deck... or removing two, depending on which side you're on.

In the case of bitcoin, the hacks have set the whole experiment back quite a bit. But it will still move in the direction it would have moved without them. And perhaps, like a relationship that was destined to fail, it's better that these events happened now, early on in bitcoin's history, as opposed to three or four years from now.
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August 08, 2011, 07:48:26 PM
 #24

I can almost bet that much more serious events will happen in the 3-4 years timeframe. The higher the stakes in the BTC project, the more sophisticated attacks will become. Right now, the problems we had were mostly caused by stupidity, and no serious attempts to disrupt the network have been done. We have seen nothing yet.

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August 08, 2011, 11:11:34 PM
 #25

Before last drop here was calculated long-term stable price of BTC.

netrin
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August 08, 2011, 11:26:21 PM
 #26

Right now, the problems we had were mostly caused by stupidity, and no serious attempts to disrupt the network have been done.

Is this fact or opinion?

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August 09, 2011, 04:41:25 AM
 #27

I did via non-technical analysis https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34978.0

And we're back up to nearly 8 again

Here's more of my non-technical analysis: plateau at 4-5$ USD by the middle to end of next week.

We'll see.  I hope you're right since it'd be nice to pick some more up.

Mousepotato
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