Is Bitcoin Naturally Defined By 4 Year Boom And Bust Cycles

[darkangel11]

This bull cycle (if it were to end with a60k top) would be the shortest in history. We're actually at the point of the first breakout followed by a selloff like in 2017 after reaching 3k we fell back to 1.5k. We're now at 60% of the ATH and in 2017 after reaching 300% of the last ATH we fell 50%. Looks familiar?


Take a look at this chart that shows days since bottom in every bull cycle in history.
You'll notice that each cycle took more days and the third cycle was significantly weaker than the second.


This is a chart from last year and we are currently around 900 days into the cycle, so 150 days earlier than 2017 top and very likely at around 200 days before the top of this cycle.
Of course that is only if the cycle theory is really a thing, which i think it is. Mathematically, longer, slower cycles make sense since the number of coins in circulation, market capitalization and the number of users are all increasing.

In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news

Not necessarily because the cycles are getting longer. If this one takes 1100 days or more and the bear market begins in the end of 2021, you'll have to wait even longer for the new high.
Good news is that even after 2 years of bear market we'll still be above 20k.

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[LogitechMouse]

A brief timeline of crypto history.

2013  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.

2017  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

2021  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

If you will see, there is a bit of similarities on it.
Aside from the fact that this happened every 4 years, the Chinese are always involved in this crashes. China China China.. Hmmmmmmmmmmm.

Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?

If we will base on the history then it might be that this year will be the year where Bitcoin will reach its ATH. Possible that the $65,000 price is the ATH already or it might go even higher in the next months of 2021.
On the other hand, we might see a super cycle and it might break this trend but the chances of this are very low. I still believe in "History repeats itself".

[nightrider]

A cycle that has occurred 4 years bitcoin spike again. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 and has exploded in 2013, 2017 and 2021. If calculated according to this cycle, by 2025 the bitcoin price will reach a new peak. So right now we should invest in bitcoin while it is low and keep it for long. Hopefully this will be an important milestone to success when you buy bitcoin.

[CaVO32]

A cycle that has occurred 4 years bitcoin spike again. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 and has exploded in 2013, 2017 and 2021. If calculated according to this cycle, by 2025 the bitcoin price will reach a new peak. So right now we should invest in bitcoin while it is low and keep it for long. Hopefully this will be an important milestone to success when you buy bitcoin.

But you also have to consider that anything can happen in this market. The adoption is different than in previous years. It may not follow the 4-year cycle but the progress may come early. Who knows? This market is very unpredictable. Either way, we should always be ready for whatever may happen. But one thing, if you are in this market, make sure that you are allotting funds that you can afford. Because if anything goes wrong, your life's savings will not be burned.

[AndySt]

A cycle that has occurred 4 years bitcoin spike again. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 and has exploded in 2013, 2017 and 2021. If calculated according to this cycle, by 2025 the bitcoin price will reach a new peak. So right now we should invest in bitcoin while it is low and keep it for long. Hopefully this will be an important milestone to success when you buy bitcoin.

Well, first of all, the year 2021 is still not over and we are only approaching its middle, and therefore I would not dare to argue that the rise this year has already ended and it is time to start buying, because the next peak will be only in four years, as well as I am not sure that the exchange rate price will not fall again to lower levels in the near future. I can more or less listen to such conclusions about four-year cycles, but I still do not advise you to rush and announce that all the significant cryptocurrency events have already occurred this year. By no means, by the end of the year, many more interesting things can happen, such as the rise to new levels.

[Oceat]

I guess this is the cycle that we all are getting used to since the day Bitcoin started to boom with the bull run. I never see it exceeded it's ATH during those 3 years left before another halving occurred. It seems that investors and other large institutional investors are waiting for this to happen since they knew that more people will be joining in the market and they can easily manipulate if they want to make profit.

[Sithara007]

Previously these cycles were triggered by the block reward halving events. As you can notice from the charts, the ATH of 2013 and 2017 were achieved in 1 to 1.5 years after the first and second block reward halving respectively. We had another block reward halving on 2020, and therefore we should be expecting another ATH by mid-2021 to end-2021. And I guess that has already happened. The spike was more mild this time, because the impact of block reward halving on the total supply is of a lesser magnitude when compared to the previous such events.

[Silberman]

In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news

First of all the bull market is not over yet, we need to watch what the market does during the next months before we can declare the bull market over, and even if that is the case we are not going have to wait that long as you can take a position in the market before the halving takes place and everyone is sleeping, then when the market begins to grow up you will be able to capture all the bull market while others are just trying to understand what is it happening.

[titular]

I tend to think that this cycle, that is primarily due to halving mechanism, would be massively impacted by the research on the Stock to Flow, ratio.

Its always something to do with the halving mechanism so far but this time it seems to be different ( my own perspective ). I wonder if we will ever get this huge bull run if it wasnt for the covid-19 pandemic. The 10 years US treasury bonds hits below their average return which is why alot of those big guys 'gamble' into cryptocurrencies in general

To me, it's only stock to flow.
Yes, the demand driven by the pandemic, the FED brrr and the wealth effect of stick market played a role, but the main driving force hasn't changed since 2010: Stock2Flow explains 95% of the price of bitcoin: I wouldn't be too concerned by the residual 5%.

How strongly do you rely on S2F?

[wahyu wida]

In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news

First of all the bull market is not over yet, we need to watch what the market does during the next months before we can declare the bull market over, and even if that is the case we are not going have to wait that long as you can take a position in the market before the halving takes place and everyone is sleeping, then when the market begins to grow up you will be able to capture all the bull market while others are just trying to understand what is it happening.

In the past, many said that at the end of the year the price of bitcoin would go up, it was because the behavior in the previous year showed that way. The same is true today, I don't think there is a four-year culture, and that is just a coincidence. and I think the bull market is not necessarily over, hopefully the correction ends soon and bitcoin forms new peaks soon

[Silberman]

In this case we need to wait for another 4 years for new ATHs... Not so good news

First of all the bull market is not over yet, we need to watch what the market does during the next months before we can declare the bull market over, and even if that is the case we are not going have to wait that long as you can take a position in the market before the halving takes place and everyone is sleeping, then when the market begins to grow up you will be able to capture all the bull market while others are just trying to understand what is it happening.

In the past, many said that at the end of the year the price of bitcoin would go up, it was because the behavior in the previous year showed that way. The same is true today, I don't think there is a four-year culture, and that is just a coincidence. and I think the bull market is not necessarily over, hopefully the correction ends soon and bitcoin forms new peaks soon

Personally I think we are following a similar pattern to the one we saw in 2017, we had a halving on 2016 and it took some time for the price to begin to go up but it finally did, then there was a drop in the price and it was not until segwit was approved on October when we saw the bull run making crazy new ATHs, and this is happening again now that the taproot upgrade is coming, and once it is locked in I am sure we are bound to see significant growth just like what happened during 2017.

[adzino]

I guess this is the cycle that we all are getting used to since the day Bitcoin started to boom with the bull run. I never see it exceeded it's ATH during those 3 years left before another halving occurred. It seems that investors and other large institutional investors are waiting for this to happen since they knew that more people will be joining in the market and they can easily manipulate if they want to make profit.

The crypto market is unpredictable. Who knows, the next all time high might happen even years before the halving. Maybe the halving and the price rise is just a coincidence? Or maybe its because everyone thinks that the price is going to increase, hence everyone invests causing the price to increase. But if you look at the charts, this time it wasn't as much as we expected it to be. The recent price rise was mainly because of huge companies getting into the market.

they can easily manipulate if they want to make profit.

I doubt they can easily manipulate the market. When many competitors enter the market, it in fact is going to be harder for everyone to manipulate (unless they all decide to unite and mess things up).

[sapnu]

A brief timeline of crypto history.

2013  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes as silk road is shut down. Ross Ulbricht is arrested. And china bans financial institutions from buying or selling bitcoin.

2017  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes amidst allegations of bitfinex and tether market manipulation of btc. And china reportedly bans cryptocurrency exchanges.

2021  Bitcoin reaches a new all time high. Then crashes. The first event in the crash is attributed to chinese crypto miners being forced to shut down from alleged electricity shortages caused by coal power plant outage.

Based on the above, might it be fair to expect another bitcoin all time high, followed by a crash in 2025?

Will bitcoin naturally be defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles.

Due to its rewards halving being based around approximate 4 year cycles?

It is a good observation and it kinda make sense on how bitcoin keeps on booming out. Before the bull run at 2021, it went on a 4years crisis wherein lots of crypto enthusiasts ended up losing interest with their investment. If ever that's really the case, we should expect another bull run on the next four years. Maybe that is the reason why many people are holding their investments still at the moment, because they are fully aware that another bull run would occur. You just need to be patient and have faith on your investment, no matter what it is, either bitcoin or ethereum, just keep on persevering.

[kryptqnick]

That's an interesting observation, but maybe it's a little far-stretched. The ATH was established around November 2013, December 2017, April 2021. It's 4 years between 2013 and 2017, but a little over 3 years before 2021. And, of course, there's no guarantee that we'll have to wait around 4 years for the next ATH.
I'd also like to add that in 2017, there were some news about South Korea restricting the activities of crypto exchanges. As far as I remember, this was actually the trigger that led to the prices dropping. Here are some articles from those times that support this idea. As for 2021, a major factor was Elon Musk's announcement of Tesla stopping accepting bitcoins.