Protoshares Unusually Tricky Marketing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnNPX8wc1tcHas anyone noticed that there are some inconsistencies in their marketing material. For example, USD/BTC is already a transparent price on each exchange. Just because you open another exchange doesn't mean that the price will converge to anything near that price. In fact most people already use a weighted average of the current exchanges. Furthermore, it mentions that BTC/USD would be devoid of any manipulation. What market isn't? If there was manipulation, wouldn't it be possible to manipulate bitshares as well? The argument is faulty.
Looks a lot like the same marketing style of Banners Brokers... BB talk up the prospect of earning advertising revenue and then overstate the earning prospects and the actual benefit which they provide to advertisers and consumers.
http://www.listenonrepeat.com/watch/?v=gIAsHkU72Bhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIAsHkU72BcNote it has been severely restricted on youtube, so a listenonrepeat link is included for your viewing pleasure and to avoid a nasty signup to Google+.
Furthermore, it really isn't a prediction market if no one decides to follow the prices. In fact the best prediction market is one exchange such as BTC-China going up in price and then the others following soon after. That's an efficient market. Bitshares provides no means to confirm any of it's theories.
We must all hang together, and we already do, with the current system. Why create a prediction market where it is devoid of any true meaning. You can take a look at the bets on earthquake insurance. It is no where near the correct price because not many people know when it's going to happen. A similar comparison can be made with predicting the bitcoin price, as the price rises dramatically at first, but that first prediction is very hard, it's like predicting the first shock of an earthquake rather than the aftershocks. The aftershocks are more likely a consequence of the actual earthquake, in relation to bitcoin pricing the aftershocks are the momentum that continues to push up the price after the initial shock. Another bigger problem is why would you speculate on a secondary market rather than the actual market where you can influence the actual price rather than playing with a phony ETF like option. Remember ETFs track closely but are not the actual prices. Worst of all, there is no theory to why bitshares would track anywhere near the actual prices.
Prices are only accurate and effective in trade for a specific time. Otherwise why wouldn't people create a prediction market, i.e. not a futures market, but a prediction market for agriculture. It doesn't work, the actual tool is broken.
Discuss. By pointing out the flaws of the system, we are colloborating rather than keeping the flaws hidden and laughing behind our backs.
Apparently by people power, bitcoin's block size has now been cleared for an increase in the near future. Let's see if we can't fix the concept of bitshares before it is finally launched.
