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Author Topic: Are "lost" BTC already priced in?  (Read 1213 times)
ltc_foundry
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December 03, 2013, 06:44:42 PM
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I see comments frequently to the effect of "There are many missing coins, the real price should be higher"

Aren't missing coins, by virtue of not circulating or being exchanged, already priced in?
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nairb131
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December 03, 2013, 06:49:02 PM
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It should always be priced in because the people who are active in trading bitcoins are the ones that set the price. The ones that are inactive or not using them don't really affect the price as much.

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December 03, 2013, 07:12:55 PM
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If anyone finds a way to recover all those lost BTC would be millionar
coinft
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December 03, 2013, 07:27:43 PM
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If anyone finds a way to recover all those lost BTC would be millionar

Not really. Any way to "find" those lost coins would also be a way to steal active coins, since at protocol level there is really no difference.

Bitcoins would be useless and without value very fast.

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December 03, 2013, 08:52:19 PM
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If anyone finds a way to recover all those lost BTC would be millionar

I don't believe there is anyway to recover lost BTC. This is one of the things that makes BTC secure.

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December 03, 2013, 08:53:59 PM
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If anyone finds a way to recover all those lost BTC would be millionar

I don't believe there is anyway to recover lost BTC. This is one of the things that makes BTC secure.

Unless you get beyond lucky. Like get struck twice by lightning twice a day while taking a dump and winning the lottery lucky.

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BitchicksHusband
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December 03, 2013, 09:02:13 PM
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Or you went trawling through landfills in the UK and found that hard drive with the (presumably not encrypted) 7500 BTC on it. 

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galbros
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December 04, 2013, 03:45:23 AM
 #8

I've thought about this some too and while the price by definition has to consider the "lost" bitcoins, I wonder if there has ever been a solid estimate of them as it's clear that the number of bitcoins that have been generated - 12 million - is higher than the amount available for circulation/use because of these losses.
beetcoin
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December 04, 2013, 03:54:58 AM
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i don't know if lost bitcoins are factored in, but i think probably not.. since nobody knows the exact number, or anything close to it.
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December 04, 2013, 04:11:38 AM
 #10

Currently, the markets are trying to figure out if bitcoin is a fad or a paradigm change.  That uncertainty is huge compared to any effect that lost coins may have.

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December 04, 2013, 05:12:49 AM
 #11

I see comments frequently to the effect of "There are many missing coins, the real price should be higher"

Aren't missing coins, by virtue of not circulating or being exchanged, already priced in?
Well first of all, if they are NOT circulating that makes the price HIGHER. If they WERE circulating the price would be LOWER. (due to increased BTC supply)

Are they priced in? Yes and no. Yes because "everyone knows" the risks involved and can invest accordingly and no because for instance the maybe ~1-2 milion bitcoins Satoshi has may never move or may be dumped tomorrow and enter more active circulation.

All you can say is that supply and demand has priced in whatever is in circulation at the present moment.

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December 04, 2013, 09:30:51 AM
 #12

I think most people who are well-informed about Bitcoin know that there is around 1 million BTC that have never moved in years and thus probably lost (probably mostly from Satoshi).

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Martijnvdc
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December 04, 2013, 12:57:44 PM
 #13

If anyone finds a way to recover all those lost BTC would be millionar
multimillionaire...
but you can't recover them if the private keys are GONE. I'm telling you, people will go through trash just to find a hard drive that might contain a bitcoin wallet. Cheesy
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December 04, 2013, 02:54:08 PM
 #14

If anyone finds a way to recover all those lost BTC would be millionar
multimillionaire...
but you can't recover them if the private keys are GONE. I'm telling you, people will go through trash just to find a hard drive that might contain a bitcoin wallet. Cheesy

If people find a way to recover those bitcoins , it will be very bad . , very extremely bad
It would mean we are one step of managing to get any bitcoins out of any address , and this will be the end of it.
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