Five years ahead

[beckspace]

I was playing with this great tool https://www.tradingview.com, making simple projections. As a noob, I know that my trendlines placements are off, but it made sense to me, visually. I tried to equally divide the areas above and below the average price.

Conservative estimate:


Extreme bullish estimate:


I must be doing something wrong, but it was fun as hell.

[BitChick]

Aren't the trendlines predicting $10,000 in 2014?  If we keep at the same pace as we have gone this year we will definitely see that price next year if not $100,000 I would think?

Granted, I am always bullish.  A bear will have a different view for sure! 

[Spaceman_Spiff]

If I don't put this here, somebody else surely will  :

[antimattercrusader]

as much as I'd love this to be true, I imagine it will taper off at some point. IMO 10k is possible in 2014, but getting to 100k is going to take some time. I don't think we'll see 100 million. If we do, it will be after my life time. No way fate will let me enjoy my investment that much.

[beckspace]

as much as I'd love this to be true, I imagine it will taper off at some point. IMO 10k is possible in 2014, but getting to 100k is going to take some time. I don't think we'll see 100 million. If we do, it will be after my life time. No way fate will let me enjoy my investment that much.

I sure think that we will taper off at the end, decelerate from 100k to 1 million, and taking more time than showed in those graphs.

[Cluster2k]

I remember my biology lecturer showing a graph on how quickly bacteria divide and grow.  He said after a few weeks the entire planet would be covered in a metres thick layer of bacteria.  Except it's not.  There isn't enough food and other resources to support that sort of growth in numbers.

Bitcoin is no different.  New speculators and current speculators who think the price will go even higher are the 'food' for bitcoin.  Once we run out of enough to sustain growth the price will taper off and fall.

But hey, I would love to believe I can pay off my entire mortgage with one bitcoin sometime in 2016. 

[Patel]

I wonder if Bitcoin will be alive in 5 years

[aminorex]

I wonder if Bitcoin will be alive in 5 years

No more or less alive than it is today.  It is not a biological organism.

[GriTBitS]

All those 9th graders that started mining when they were in 6th grade. Theyre going to be quite the catch for the cheerleaders when they are in 12th grade.

[CMMPro]

The graph is in a log scale....this is good but I think in order to predict the future better we need to look at it as a sigmoid/logistic curve.
(That would support your theory of it slowing down later.)

[BitchicksHusband]

We went 100x this year.  If we go 100x next year, we will be at $100k per coin.  It's just a matter of how high this is going to go overall, but we are going to get to that level by 2015 regardless of what it is.

[coraz]

Something like 0.03% of world population uses Bitcoin now and we had about 50% growth in the past month alone.

If you want to be bearish about Bitcoin, you need to have a very good answer as to why this market share won't keep increasing in the future 

[donbu7]

I really would love the idea of 1 BTC reaches 1 million but it is not LOGICAl, let's suppose that it gets to 1 million and so far there are 12 million BTC so that would be 12,000,000,000,000 USD  That is imposible, put the feet on the ground, I think the realistic price for BTC would never be more that 10,000 USD.

Stop dreaming...

[Bitbuy]

I really would love the idea of 1 BTC reaches 1 million but it is not LOGICAl, let's suppose that it gets to 1 million and so far there are 12 million BTC so that would be 12,000,000,000,000 USD  That is imposible, put the feet on the ground, I think the realistic price for BTC would never be more that 10,000 USD.

Stop dreaming...

I see what you're saying, but this is only valid if fiat stays the current norm (read: as long as Bitcoin remains a speculative entity, and not a valid widely used means of payment)

[reannypleas]

I really would love the idea of 1 BTC reaches 1 million but it is not LOGICAl, let's suppose that it gets to 1 million and so far there are 12 million BTC so that would be 12,000,000,000,000 USD  That is imposible, put the feet on the ground, I think the realistic price for BTC would never be more that 10,000 USD.

Stop dreaming...

You dont need 12,000,000,000,000 USD for 1 million / BTC. Look at exchanges, there are about 100 million USD, yet 1000 USD * 12 million BTC = 12,000,000,000 USD

[gentlemand]

It feels to me like people are basing mega valuations on a very narrow set of criteria. If Bitcoin stays inside those then it's still going to rise significantly but perhaps not to the levels some are saying.

I believe that it's going to have a role in global finance and areas of commerce and daily life that few have begun to guess yet.

I'd liken it to discovering oil. At the moment people are throwing it on their fire at home and thinking 'cool, it burns'. Right now it has value as a flammable sludge. Once you realised it could be refined further and you could use it in vehicle fuels, plastics, tyres, industry etc. it's going to be worth a whole lot more to you.

Once its true potential is explored and utilised to the fullest, that's when a proper explosion will occur.

[Mageant]

If Bitcoin follows an S-curve it is only going to go up as steep as it has this year maybe for one more year and then flatten out and reach a saturation point in 3-5 years.

[Ibian]

I really would love the idea of 1 BTC reaches 1 million but it is not LOGICAl,

Yes, it is. And that's why most people can't see it (like the guy above me). Exponential growth is incredibly difficult for most people to understand.

[Ibian]

Here is what a lot of people are probably missing: The entire western economy is going to collapse. Probably around 2020. There are other circles equally as nerdy as this one who deal with that stuff but suffice to say, if bitcoin survives that and becomes a dominant form of currency, the price will go much higher than the $300k people have been talking about.

[monkeybars]

Here is what a lot of people are probably missing: The entire western economy is going to collapse. Probably around 2020.

I have the distinct impression that Bitcoin will be precisely what saves the World economy from completely collapsing.

The transition will be extremely chaotic and disruptive however.

Agree with others in the thread pointing out a straight exponential line is irrelevant in the context of predicting technological adoption. We have entered the steep part of the S-curve now. The value will begin flattening as adoption butts up against some percentage (1? 5? 50? 80?) of the entire size of the World economy. Anything exceeding 10 million (2013 USD) per XBT would mean Bitcoin would absorb much of the current speculative investment and longterm deposits markets (M3).