Bitcoin ready for a correction

[amihh]

Bitcoin has gone up fast in November 2013 and now in early December it might give you an opportunity to buy at lower prices again.

The daily candlestick chart of bitcoin vs. the USD on Mt.Gox looked very familiar to me and convinced me to sell some bitcoins, if and when the value drops a bit, I will buy back more bitcoins.

http://chartly.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Screenshot-from-2013-12-04-155041.png

The high of $1242 from 6 days ago is tested again today. If you look at the MACD-Histogram, you will see that it is not matching the pattern of the price movement, it is steadily declining.
Don’t take me wrong, I sold only a small part of my bitcoin holdings as an amusement ride. Most of my position is a long bitcoin one.This is a classical divergence and could be a sign that the bitcoin price is about to drop sharply to $800 or maybe even lower, this is the level of the lowest price 4 days ago.

I will be amused if the drop in price will trigger a media frenzy where they will call it an unstable asset, not suitable as a currency and too risky to use in any way. This may actually help the down movement I anticipate here.
rough a rapid up trend similar to November 2013 to the next level.Later on, the media will neglect bitcoin and it will stabilize around a new level, at the neighborhood of $1000 for a year or less, then it will go through a more quiet phase.

What do you think will happen to the price in the coming days and weeks?

http://chartly.com/bitcoin-ready-for-a-correction/

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[eindbaas]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

[notme]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

Damn dude.  Why so hostile?

[RodeoX]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

Damn dude.  Why so hostile?

Yeah man. He is just speculating. We all like guessing what the price will be, even though no of us knows. 

[Miz4r]

Didn't we just have a correction? In my opinion we are seeing the same pattern we saw after the last correction when price dropped from 900 to 453 on MtGox. Price is recovering fast, then we see a consolidation on low volume just below ATH and then a significant breakout happens on higher volume. Maybe this time it's different, but that's what they always say don't they?

[piramida]

I think there will be a final leg up to about 2000 and then some real crash/correction. Given of course that 1200 is broken in the next 48 hours, which I think it will be.

[adamstgBit]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot

oh come on he has a reasonably good analysts.


I disagree, bitcoin is moving up FAST for a good reason. technical indicators won't make much sense until the market can price in the growth, this could take years, as the growth is ongoing, and shows no sign of stopping.

[the_sunship]

well, anything is possible. It seems to have pretty strong support above 700 at this point. People have been saying it's a bubble now since 1000 (since 800 really). Time will tell. I thought I bought into a bubble at 320.

[CoinCidental]

Bitcoin has gone up fast in November 2013 and now in early December it might give you an opportunity to buy at lower prices again.

The daily candlestick chart of bitcoin vs. the USD on Mt.Gox looked very familiar to me and convinced me to sell some bitcoins, if and when the value drops a bit, I will buy back more bitcoins.



The high of $1242 from 6 days ago is tested again today. If you look at the MACD-Histogram, you will see that it is not matching the pattern of the price movement, it is steadily declining.
Don’t take me wrong, I sold only a small part of my bitcoin holdings as an amusement ride. Most of my position is a long bitcoin one.This is a classical divergence and could be a sign that the bitcoin price is about to drop sharply to $800 or maybe even lower, this is the level of the lowest price 4 days ago.

I will be amused if the drop in price will trigger a media frenzy where they will call it an unstable asset, not suitable as a currency and too risky to use in any way. This may actually help the down movement I anticipate here.
rough a rapid up trend similar to November 2013 to the next level.Later on, the media will neglect bitcoin and it will stabilize around a new level, at the neighborhood of $1000 for a year or less, then it will go through a more quiet phase.

What do you think will happen to the price in the coming days and weeks?

http://chartly.com/bitcoin-ready-for-a-correction/

$1200 again now on gox

i think there are plenty of sharks in the water at the moment so if bitcoin prices were to tumble from a large dump etc
they would all be snapped up ASAP and start to rise again to  $1000+

bitcoin has  gotten so much publicity lately people are  having difficulty getting money in exchanges to buy any

[amihh]

CoinCidental: I know there is a lot of buying pressure. I only wanted to post this at a public place because I've seen this pattern in many different tradable instruments, from S&P futures on 1 minute candlesticks to Single stocks on weekly candlesticks!

adamstgBit: It might not behave "right" as it is in an early growth phase, I agree with you. But technical analysis can work in this situation too. We'll see how this evolves pretty soon.

If the $1200 level is broken at a heavy volume, consider this analysis as failed. I only used a small part of my holdings for this.

[oda.krell]

The problem with your analysis is not that it's invalid per se, but that you're kind of sloppy in executing it. Even a cursory glance at your own chart will show you that a very similar pattern actually appeared on November 10 and 19th: volume (and momentum) declined as we recovered from the hit (and approached the respective ATHs). And seeing where we stand now, I wouldn't put too much weight on that signal.

In my opinion before a real correction happens (one that we don't recover from within a few days) buying pressure needs to lessen substantially. There's a very mild decline of it on btcny perhaps, but I don't see it as substantial enough to end the rally quite yet.

[lucas.sev]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

Your post does not exactly shout confidence in current price level

[amihh]

oda.krell: Nice observation!

I did had that prediction and it failed.
Lucky for me, I didn't sell at all at the time. I only delayed my next buy.

There is a pretty large gap between these technical predictions of a down movement possibility and the actual account movement.
My main lookout is bullish and I will be very happy if the price goes up to $2000 and only then does the correction dance.

I guess we'll see one way or the other in a few days.

[MatTheCat]

Your post does not exactly shout confidence in current price level

Indeed!

Such a reaction (aggressive denial) in the face of a reasonable bit of speculative analysis suggesting the price may go down almost had me reaching for the SELL SELL SELL FKN SELL button.

Instead, I have just put the little tosser on ignore, have taken Amhii's comments on board, but am sticking with my gut instinct which is telling me at the moment to be patient. (I loaded up just recently at just a bit short of these high price levels).

[PenAndPaper]

Charts look the way op described but some pr buzz from example can push the price over 2000$ and then the real bottom will be much higher than it looks right now. Actually i think this is what 's happening over and over.

[bitcon]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

u mad bro?

[CoinCidental]

Charts look the way op described but some pr buzz from example can push the price over 2000$ and then the real bottom will be much higher than it looks right now. Actually i think this is what 's happening over and over.

if there were more reliable /trustable exchanges a lot more people would sink money into BTC
in larger amounts

nobody wants to send shitloads of money to eastern europe or russia and take the risk of them
running with coins and claiming a hack or just disappearing altogether

ideally ,every country shud have an exchange so nobody sud have to transact interantionally but
we are just not there yet ....hopefully soon though

[zimmah]

kraken, localbitcoins, both are fine.

[MatTheCat]

kraken, localbitcoins, both are fine.

Vendors on LocalBitcoin are currently around or even lower than Bitstamp rates.

This is rare. Normally ~ 6% premium over Bitstamp to be paid there and I have seen as high as +30% being a 'competitive' rate on LocalBitcoins.

This tells me that the vendors believe an imminent drop in price is likely, otherwise why sell on Localbitcoins with all its attendant risks and potential headaches for the same rate as they can get on Bitstamp?

[thezerg]

CoinCidental: I know there is a lot of buying pressure. I only wanted to post this at a public place because I've seen this pattern in many different tradable instruments, from S&P futures on 1 minute candlesticks to Single stocks on weekly candlesticks!

adamstgBit: It might not behave "right" as it is in an early growth phase, I agree with you. But technical analysis can work in this situation too. We'll see how this evolves pretty soon.

If the $1200 level is broken at a heavy volume, consider this analysis as failed. I only used a small part of my holdings for this.

I have noticed strange happenings WRT bitcoin and volume.  In particular, bitcoin has high volume corrections and then low volume returns, even in a bull market.  I've seen this pattern so many times that I think that volume based analysis derived from stocks may be faulty.  This is often followed by oscillations (a triangle for you TA people) and then upwards breakout.

One explanation may be that on every down tick some coins go into long-term wallets.  This creates a lower supply at these previous price points.  Without that supply the return must necessarily be low volume.