Bitcoin ready for a correction

[raskolnikovx]

You might wanna ask yourself how long it takes to call Bitcoin at certain price stable.
I dont see Bitcoin going under 1000 USD. Its just too much time over 1000.
I think we are safe saying that 1000 is the new bottom

[PenAndPaper]

Charts look the way op described but some pr buzz from example can push the price over 2000$ and then the real bottom will be much higher than it looks right now. Actually i think this is what 's happening over and over.

if there were more reliable /trustable exchanges a lot more people would sink money into BTC
in larger amounts

nobody wants to send shitloads of money to eastern europe or russia and take the risk of them
running with coins and claiming a hack or just disappearing altogether

ideally ,every country shud have an exchange so nobody sud have to transact interantionally but
we are just not there yet ....hopefully soon though

I guess that's where etf's like second market and the winklevii one step in. They can cover that untill regulation gets cleared up.

[GigaCoin]

CoinCidental: I know there is a lot of buying pressure. I only wanted to post this at a public place because I've seen this pattern in many different tradable instruments, from S&P futures on 1 minute candlesticks to Single stocks on weekly candlesticks!

adamstgBit: It might not behave "right" as it is in an early growth phase, I agree with you. But technical analysis can work in this situation too. We'll see how this evolves pretty soon.

If the $1200 level is broken at a heavy volume, consider this analysis as failed. I only used a small part of my holdings for this.

I have noticed strange happenings WRT bitcoin and volume.  In particular, bitcoin has high volume corrections and then low volume returns, even in a bull market.  I've seen this pattern so many times that I think that volume based analysis derived from stocks may be faulty.  This is often followed by oscillations (a triangle for you TA people) and then upwards breakout.

One explanation may be that on every down tick some coins go into long-term wallets.  This creates a lower supply at these previous price points.  Without that supply the return must necessarily be low volume.  

makes sense, i agree.

[darkmule]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

You're the only trollface I see here.  And welcome to the troll hole.

*plonk*.

[amihh]

So, another day passed, it came close to $1242 which is the all time high from 7 days ago.
Today it was at $1240.

Down or up?

Volume is very low, this could mean that it will go up soon. very soon.
The original thesis here is that it will go down to maybe $800 for a short time at a high volume before going further up, much further up.

[Bitbuy]

So, another day passed, it came close to $1242 which is the all time high from 7 days ago.
Today it was at $1240.

Down or up?

Volume is very low, this could mean that it will go up soon. very soon.
The original thesis here is that it will go down to maybe $800 for a short time at a high volume before going further up, much further up.

My gut & charts tell me it will go UP...

[eindbaas]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

u mad bro?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2HdJ0c4hP4

[amihh]

Just went down to $900, will any more weak hands shake out their bitcoin even further down to $800? 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

CoinCidental: I know there is a lot of buying pressure. I only wanted to post this at a public place because I've seen this pattern in many different tradable instruments, from S&P futures on 1 minute candlesticks to Single stocks on weekly candlesticks!

adamstgBit: It might not behave "right" as it is in an early growth phase, I agree with you. But technical analysis can work in this situation too. We'll see how this evolves pretty soon.

If the $1200 level is broken at a heavy volume, consider this analysis as failed. I only used a small part of my holdings for this.

I have noticed strange happenings WRT bitcoin and volume.  In particular, bitcoin has high volume corrections and then low volume returns, even in a bull market.  I've seen this pattern so many times that I think that volume based analysis derived from stocks may be faulty.  This is often followed by oscillations (a triangle for you TA people) and then upwards breakout.

One explanation may be that on every down tick some coins go into long-term wallets.  This creates a lower supply at these previous price points.  Without that supply the return must necessarily be low volume.  

Distribution of coins to new holders. The nature of an exponentially growing marketplace of users is that there are always exponentially more new users, and new users tend to just accumulate for a while.

[amihh]

So, I waited enough...

It's nice that sometimes technical analysis works 
I wrote an update, click the image to read it.

http://chartly.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/btcusd-dbltop-success.png

[oda.krell]

Jup. Credit where credit is due. Good call OP.

Did you get out at around 1200? I didn't, took me til around 1000 (bitstamp) before I decided we're stalling and sold a substantial portion of btc (with the goal of rebuying lower)

[jamesc760]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

u mad bro?

Of course he mad, he bought in st 1250 and panic sold thrm all at 600!

[amihh]

jamesc760: Ha ha, they say - "Don't feed the trolls"...

oda.krell - I did sell, but a small portion of my holdings, the majority is in a paper wallet and I plan to keep it in paper for a few years. I will buy back soon. I add fiat on a monthly basis and I won't rush my schedule because of this crash. It might not go up too fast.

Usually I spot these events in high volume / high quality stocks but on weekly candlesticks. The pace of events in BTC is faster, that's why I look at daily candles. I know many look at 1 minute candles but that's too myopic for my taste.

[PenAndPaper]

So, I waited enough...

It's nice that sometimes technical analysis works 
I wrote an update, click the image to read it.

Are you for real? What technical analysis? The double top that happened like 10000000 times during the rally from 100 to 1000+?
 It was the news from china that caused the crash.

[oda.krell]

So, I waited enough...

It's nice that sometimes technical analysis works 
I wrote an update, click the image to read it.

Are you for real? What technical analysis? The double top that happened like 10000000 times during the rally from 100 to 1000+?
 It was the news from china that caused the crash.

Why the aggressiveness? He made a relevant remark about double top and volume. I pointed out that the volume part of his argument wasn't very precise. The market dropped a few days later.

You're free to say "it's just luck, twice a day even a broken clock is right". In other words, you don't believe in TA. In other words, you're clueless and probably shouldn't trade. (go to lucif's thread to get a taste of what someone with actual intuition *and* technical knowledge can do).

[PenAndPaper]

So, I waited enough...

It's nice that sometimes technical analysis works 
I wrote an update, click the image to read it.

Are you for real? What technical analysis? The double top that happened like 10000000 times during the rally from 100 to 1000+?
 It was the news from china that caused the crash.

Why the aggressiveness? He made a relevant remark about double top and volume. I pointed out that the volume part of his argument wasn't very precise. The market dropped a few days later.

You're free to say "it's just luck, twice a day even a broken clock is right". In other words, you don't believe in TA. In other words, you're clueless and probably shouldn't trade. (go to lucif's thread to get a taste of what someone with actual intuition *and* technical knowledge can do).

It looks like you are losing your temper so i can only guess how well technical analysis worked for you. Keep it up and take all the money from the clueless people that we are.

[Hfertig]

I guess the reason why especially so many newcomers are very aggressive is that they are scared of losing money. They bought at 900+ and are looking at losses now. They flame everyone who gives an honest opinion on what TA currently shows.... a much further drop downwards. Can´t wait for those pigs to get slaughtered once we move further down.

[oda.krell]

It looks like you are losing your temper so i can only guess how well technical analysis worked for you. Keep it up and take all the money from the clueless people that we are.

Hm...

Oh well. We had a good run (since early July, to be precise).

First time in quite a while I reduced my btc position substantially. I'm still in, never go full fiat , and I consider consolidation still slightly more likely than a major crash, but I also believe the chance of a sudden breakout upwards is somewhat lower than a similarly powerful breakout downwards, so there you go.

Guess I'm putting the old adage "...be greedy when others are fearful" to a test.


EDIT: not because of Baidu, by the way. Fuck Baidu

Price was around 1050 at that point (mtgox).

Anyway, I never called an entire group of people "clueless" and that I somehow "take their money". I call people that bullshit about the worthlessness of TA clueless.

If I misunderstood you, and you're just pointing out a particularly weak point in OP's analysis, my apologies. But if you doubt TA as a whole: well, guess what? You probably shouldn't actively trade, since that would gambling, wouldn't it? Buy & Hold is your game then, I guess.

[PenAndPaper]

If I misunderstood you, and you're just pointing out a particularly weak point in OP's analysis, my apologies. But if you doubt TA as a whole: well, guess what? You probably shouldn't actively trade, since that would gambling, wouldn't it? Buy & Hold is your game then, I guess.

Op posted a double top and a macd graph and claims that this is a technical analysis that somehow explains the drop while the drop had nothing to do with anything besides the news from china.

I can show you 100000 double tops before the op's one that meant nothing. When you just get lucky you don't go out to forums and brag "look my TA worked" especially when it is so obvious to everyone about what happened.

[Money Raccoon]

If I misunderstood you, and you're just pointing out a particularly weak point in OP's analysis, my apologies. But if you doubt TA as a whole: well, guess what? You probably shouldn't actively trade, since that would gambling, wouldn't it? Buy & Hold is your game then, I guess.

Op posted a double top and a macd graph and claims that this is a technical analysis that somehow explains the drop while the drop had nothing to do with anything besides the news from china.

I can show you 100000 double tops before the op's one that meant nothing. When you just get lucky you don't go out to forums and brag "look my TA worked" especially when it is so obvious to everyone about what happened.

What's wrong Pen? You seem stressed