Bitcoin ready for a correction

[PenAndPaper]

If I misunderstood you, and you're just pointing out a particularly weak point in OP's analysis, my apologies. But if you doubt TA as a whole: well, guess what? You probably shouldn't actively trade, since that would gambling, wouldn't it? Buy & Hold is your game then, I guess.

Op posted a double top and a macd graph and claims that this is a technical analysis that somehow explains the drop while the drop had nothing to do with anything besides the news from china.

I can show you 100000 double tops before the op's one that meant nothing. When you just get lucky you don't go out to forums and brag "look my TA worked" especially when it is so obvious to everyone about what happened.

What's wrong Pen? You seem stressed

Actually i am like most people around are. Still am i wrong with what i said?

[MikeyVeez]

Where do you get such nice charts?

[amihh]

PenAndPaper: You are not wrong in what you said, Technical analysis is tricky and doesn't always work. I really believe in the double top + MACD-Histogram divergence. I use it to trade options on stocks with high success rates. It is not the double top alone, but a specific set up with more constraints. The MACD-Histogram divergence is very significant and makes this double top a rare thing and that's why I posted it. I don't like to post a lot even though I'm not so new here as you might think from the number of posts I have.
Please note that I posted this chart before the news and before a "proper" double top has formed. A "proper" double top is only confirmed when the right side of the down trend happened and this is shown on the second image I posted here.
Regarding the cause of the downtrend, I believe the news from China is just an excuse or a small trigger. I believe mass behavior is better predicted than individual people's behavior and you can see changes in the general mood in the charts. People were euphoric when I posted the chart and most threads here discussed the exact timing of bitcoin reaching $2000.
Technical analysis is not an exact science, you can not make controlled experiments and you certainly can not repeat them. These are inherent limitations in the social world we live in and trading is a social activity.

oda.krell: I appreciate your support, thank you. On a personal note, even when I see the chart turning bearish I sold only a small part of my account since I still have fiat coming in every month from my business and in the long run I'm extremely bullish about bitcoin. I buy bitcoin on a regular schedule every month and maybe I will increase next month's wire transfer.

I try to stay focused on the large picture and not be caught up in the minute by minute or even hour by hour fluctuations. That is why I look at long term charts. They are the easiest to apply technical analysis to.

MikeyVeez: I took a screenshot of bitcoinwisdom.com and manipulated it to remove all the noise and emphasize what I wanted with some drawings.

Keep up the nice discussion my friends,
Ami

[BitcoinFr34k]

who the hell are you mr trollface? Go spam on btc-e faggot
You just want to buy lower. Kinda sad.

Just came here to quote this post

[darkmule]

Regarding the cause of the downtrend, I believe the news from China is just an excuse or a small trigger.

Very agreed on that, and in fact sold before the China news.  I thought the event was overdue, and while the China news could have set off what was already going to happen, I really think its effect is exaggerated.  Correlation doesn't equal causation, and while there is some tenuous causal connection between the two events, it really just affected the timing.

I think it's probably going to go further down as well, but bought back in anyway because I don't like cutting things close.  I'd rather sacrifice some (potential) profit to avoid risk (and so that I can sleep at night again while the ticker goes berserk instead of waking up like a lunatic to stare at my phone for updates every 10 minutes).

[PenAndPaper]

Regarding the cause of the downtrend, I believe the news from China is just an excuse or a small trigger. I believe mass behavior is better predicted than individual people's behavior and you can see changes in the general mood in the charts. People were euphoric when I posted the chart and most threads here discussed the exact timing of bitcoin reaching $2000.

Wikipedia:

Bitcoin is an open source peer-to-peer payment network and digital currency

Bitcoin wiki:

Bitcoin is an experimental, decentralized digital currency

And then comes China and rules that bitcoin should not be used as a currency and you call that an excuse and a small trigger? 

I know that you want to believe that it was your TA that it worked but in this case  things are obvious.
It's from now on that you 'll see if you were right or not.

[oda.krell]

Regarding the cause of the downtrend, I believe the news from China is just an excuse or a small trigger. I believe mass behavior is better predicted than individual people's behavior and you can see changes in the general mood in the charts. People were euphoric when I posted the chart and most threads here discussed the exact timing of bitcoin reaching $2000.

Wikipedia:

Bitcoin is an open source peer-to-peer payment network and digital currency

Bitcoin wiki:

Bitcoin is an experimental, decentralized digital currency

And then comes China and rules that bitcoin should not be used as a currency and you call that an excuse and a small trigger? 

I know that you want to believe that it was your TA that it worked but in this case  things are obvious.
It's from now on that you 'll see if you were right or not.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Billing Bitcoin as a currency may not have been a mistake at the beginning, like in 2009-2011, but ever since then it has been. Oh well, more money for the people that get it, like Barry Silbert, Chamath Palihapitiya, and the Winklevoss twins.

Also, I don't recall hearing that people couldn't do trades for goods and services with Bitcoin. It sounded more like they meant Bitcoin should not be considered legal tender, or should not be considered official government currency. Which is pretty much a non-announcement.

[darkmule]

In China, being considered a "currency" would trigger extremely onerous regulatory requirements for anyone transmitting it.  Bitcoin may have dodged a bullet.  Now, there may be more aggressive action in the future.  I fully expect some bad actors in the BTC field to be prosecuted in China, which takes financial crimes very seriously (look at the QQ fiasco).  However, China has not yet done what it did with virtual currencies, that is, outlaw their use as anything other than currency on virtual worlds.

For instance, if I were that TradeFortress guy and actually in China, as the doxers seem to think, I would be watching my back right now.  The QQ swindler got several years, iirc.

[PenAndPaper]

Billing Bitcoin as a currency may not have been a mistake at the beginning, like in 2009-2011, but ever since then it has been. Oh well, more money for the people that get it, like Barry Silbert, Chamath Palihapitiya, and the Winklevoss twins.

Also, I don't recall hearing that people couldn't do trades for goods and services with Bitcoin. It sounded more like they meant Bitcoin should not be considered legal tender, or should not be considered official government currency. Which is pretty much a non-announcement.

There are those that promote bitcoin as gold2.0 and those that think bitcoin 's store of value alone is not enough.