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Author Topic: Aftermath of Panic  (Read 1323 times)
BCEmporium
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August 08, 2011, 08:42:11 PM
 #1

First what was the cause of all this panic? Doubt it was MyBitcoin issue, as BTC was still OK way after mbc went offline. But when someone injected a large amount of BTC in MtGox many others freaked out out of the blue, selling with higher and heavy losses. Wonder what were those weak links doing around... causing mass deflation and now mass inflation?!
Are within those guys those who promptly came up with bashing because "BTC was trending up" (and will never stop... so they think) when I started to discuss about a secondary blockchain, leaving the current one to be chew within speculation?
Doesn't quite matter now, anyway...

Now, what about the future?
IMO we will experience a much stable bitcoin for a while, lose, at least, of greedy and weak links who manages pretty much than create unstable high deflationary / high inflationary economies with their lousy moves. Eventually they will return... will be up to the community to manage to prevent market maneuvers.
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The_JMiner
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August 08, 2011, 10:54:18 PM
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Imo there are so many irrational people that there will still be swings (to profit from). Every scared from the trades and/or whatever the "fear" of the week is will cause a price drop imo.

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August 08, 2011, 11:12:48 PM
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What I think happened, and from what I can tell looking at the bids and asks, is that a major player who was buying lots of bitcoins pulled out of the market. This specfic individual seemed to have stabalized the market for some time. I think after throwing continous amount of money into bitcoins doing this, he jsut lost to much and pulled out.

After his pull out, there were no more bidwalls, no more crazy buying to drive the price higher. The price just fell because he was the a large buyer of the bitcoins.

Call me crazy, but this is what I have determined and noticed the change from watching bitcoin prices for many weeks.

I am not sure if this indivual will come back, but if he doesn't the price will go even lower.

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BCEmporium
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August 08, 2011, 11:18:26 PM
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Edward,

That "specific individual", if any, would wage more by simply hold or slowly sell them than ditch the market. You're aiming not at a "wealthy individual" but as a "dumb as a rock wealthy individual"... a rare thing in my opinion.
Although and taken there're no biddingwalls the askingwalls will prevent btc from reaching former prices, at least so soon.
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August 09, 2011, 01:10:06 AM
 #5

First what was the cause of all this panic?


the last few weeks of bad news made a lot of speculators do a gut check...quite a few failed the test, they decided to cash out with losses (in fear of losing everything). 

i think the next couple of months will show whether they were right or if those of us that held on were right....

CJYP
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August 09, 2011, 01:30:35 AM
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My guess as to what caused it is that many people were in BTC expecting the US gov't to default on August 2.
Those people realized that it wasn't an immediate problem when the debt ceiling bill was passed and went back to USD.
The decline in price started around that time.
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August 09, 2011, 01:37:12 AM
 #7

A lot of news articles have come out about how this decline is terminal and that bitcoin has no intrinsic value which as they say is the cause of the fall. All of these articles don't mention the MtGox incident from a little over a month ago(brought the price down to around $12), they also say nothing about the 75k bitcoins stolen from mybitcoin (according to mybitcoin) and the effect of mybitcoin being down for a week with no information, finally the don't mention bitplomat LOSING 17k bitcoins.

It's been a terrible month of new for bitcoin, is there really any surprise that the price has dropped a lot?

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BCEmporium
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August 09, 2011, 01:46:32 AM
 #8

Nefario;

Actually the MtGox incident was after the "bubble blast", it was at 17 USD/BTC at the time after drop from 30 USD about half-week before.

From the general point of view, for those knowing BTC from the beginning, it should now be about 7 USD/BTC aiming at 10 USD by late this year. This is actually an optimal scenario for allowing economy to develop along (exchange money for money is an abrasive process and unwelcome unforeseen feature of bitcoin so far).

EDIT: And to the end, in terms of long term establishment of bitcoin, this wasn't a bad month for bitcoin; May was, with the accelerated deflation caused by the bubble many BTC based business came to an end, unable to adjust the prices that fast.
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August 09, 2011, 04:02:16 AM
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BCEmporium;

probably, I know a few people who were waiting to drop to get in, I know someone who's just after buying $4kUSD, they just weren't willing to pay more than the current price. Although I must say it was nice having my startup capital go further.

Nefario.

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Cluster2k
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August 09, 2011, 04:07:31 AM
 #10

Someone just bumped up the market from $7.75 to $8.50 very quickly which is well above the recent trend.  There's a flurry of activity.  Use this opportunity well.

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August 09, 2011, 04:20:03 AM
 #11

Unlike last nights attempt at raising prices buying up the low bits from 7 to 8.5 and then setting up a 5k+ BTC buy wall. Tonight's attempt had more creativity. Not only did they make the large buy purchase at once. They also moved the "staggered buy wall" that was setup some time in the day by a factor  of .5 (6 to 6.5, 6.5 to 7, 7 to 7.5) in order to prevent a rapid drop. They moved their "micro" buy trade, enabling a type of trip wire. This allows a "bot" time to cancel the larger buy order (wall) before the order is filled at that price.

However last night someone called their bluff and sold over 50k in BTC in one go onto their wall. Will someone call tonights bluff and purchase 50k worth of btc again in one go?  Undecided
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August 10, 2011, 08:42:37 PM
 #12

Anyone who thinks one person is responsible for any of the moves (other than the much-publicized goxian-crash) in the current market - is simply mental.

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