BTC's Future Difficulty

[CyberEd]

With more and more powerful hardware (most notably ASICS) hitting the network every day, what's everyone's guesses for BTC's mining difficulty for January 1st?

http://bitcoindifficulty.com has some useful information and short term estimates.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

[odolvlobo]

Here are my estimates:

New Difficulty	Time of Change	Amount of Change
955,001,182	12/10/2013 1:07:36	35.00%
1,241,501,537	12/20/2013 19:35:17	30.00%
1,551,876,921	1/1/2014 0:23:17	25.00%

[CyberEd]

Yeah, unfortunately I agree. If those are accurate predictions it only further proves ASICs will never see a ROI. There's a nice 1.2 Th/s machine I could get my hands on but unless I get it tomorrow it doesn't look too promising.

Thanks for your input odolvlobo! Honestly, I thought this topic would be more popular.

[odolvlobo]

Yeah, unfortunately I agree. If those are accurate predictions it only further proves ASICs will never see a ROI. There's a nice 1.2 Th/s machine I could get my hands on but unless I get it tomorrow it doesn't look too promising.

Thanks for your input odolvlobo! Honestly, I thought this topic would be more popular.

You can't make a blanket statement like that because a positive ROI depends on three factors: difficulty, cost, GH/s

Most people will lose money buying because they haven't paid attention to these three factors, but it is still possible. On the other hand, when a lot of people mine at a loss, it is hard for anyone to mine at a profit.