Bitcoin's Future Value, Weighted Scenario Analysis

[Wekkel]

F- I didnt like seeing it on the list but for the sake of the argument it is a possible scenario, but there is really a small chance of this happening.

Actually, this is already happening and could result in Scenario F : a new "new economy bubble". Look at the zillions of altcoins already in existence. I've got some Doges barking in my pocket (mobile phone) worth a couple of dollars. Mooncoin, issuing coins by the billions, is still worth something. Even Bytecoin, a complete 1:1 copy of Bitcoin and totally dead for a long period, is back and has always remained to have some value.

But don't take it from me, just look it up yourself.

The altcoins already play an essential role in the adoption of cryptocurrency and the exploration of its use. I do not see it as a danger to the prospects of this technology, but as an essential requirement thereof. Money (currency) will be freely available, but the value will be established by the free market. Hell, even now you can already buy your own altcoin for 100 mBTC.

_{I seriously think rpietila should create his own altcoin and use it for his services/endeavors as a token of trust/admiration/connection/whatever.}  

To me, this rise of the altcoins proofs that central command of money is not absolutely necessary for currency to work. Apparently, the concept of cryptocurrency has sufficient properties for the coins to be accepted as currency very easily. Of course, it's not that serious when its about fractions of a dollar, but the baby steps do not prove difficult. I bet non-tech people will have no problem using crypto in day to day life if the first 3 transactions clear and result in the groceries in their fridge. Apparently, the construction of agreement between participants that the coin has value is not that hard to achieve.

My exposure to Bitcoin is not as much as it has been. It may still rise to unbelievable heights but I see more value in the protocol itself and the use thereof that has not been established or even invented yet. Micro payments will be possible due to this technology and together with contextual computing, decentralising tendencies and crowdfunding/working, will mark a change in how we do things and get paid.

Society is moving from institutions (initially started as instruments) to emergent networks. The way money works will change (or... is changing already) as well from token to programmable software.

All this combined, the options are limitless.

Personally, I don't see my current Bitcoin investments having any value by 2030!

Something much closer to the reality of tech than eternal faith in that what is now. Invest acccordingly.

[jubalix]

A. Money becomes ubiquituous coupled with the proliferation of altcoins (thousands of them, perhaps everybody having his own coin),

this is a senerio I have also stated before in similar terms.

there is one proven way to crack bit coin private keys. Make an alt, and the wetware (human brain) will retrieve private keys and send you BTC.

The wetware is forced to conclusion they have to diversify.

To me it looks like everyone will be running their own chain, pos, to some extent, plus several side chains like chaf to ne attacked at cost to the attacker, who then will in turn face attack as they have had to divert hash, resources.

several larger chains/pos will emerge, as the main carriers, of wealth, but its not going to be a winner takes all. The BTC  decsion making process, while excellent cannot afford to agile enough to evolve fast enough due to market cap/importance. However alts can rise and die quickly with little repercussion.

[aminorex]

The UN estimated the global black market economy at $2tln USD 2008, which I think was very conservative.   Probably in half of those transactions both parties would benefit from using BTC.

[raid_n]

F- I didnt like seeing it on the list but for the sake of the argument it is a possible scenario, but there is really a small chance of this happening.

Actually, this is already happening and could result in Scenario F : a new "new economy bubble". Look at the zillions of altcoins already in existence. I've got some Doges barking in my pocket (mobile phone) worth a couple of dollars. Mooncoin, issuing coins by the billions, is still worth something. Even Bytecoin, a complete 1:1 copy of Bitcoin and totally dead for a long period, is back and has always remained to have some value.

But don't take it from me, just look it up yourself.

The altcoins already play an essential role in the adoption of cryptocurrency and the exploration of its use. I do not see it as a danger to the prospects of this technology, but as an essential requirement thereof. Money (currency) will be freely available, but the value will be established by the free market. Hell, even now you can already buy your own altcoin for 100 mBTC.

_{I seriously think rpietila should create his own altcoin and use it for his services/endeavors as a token of trust/admiration/connection/whatever.}  

To me, this rise of the altcoins proofs that central command of money is not absolutely necessary for currency to work. Apparently, the concept of cryptocurrency has sufficient properties for the coins to be accepted as currency very easily. Of course, it's not that serious when its about fractions of a dollar, but the baby steps do not prove difficult. I bet non-tech people will have no problem using crypto in day to day life if the first 3 transactions clear and result in the groceries in their fridge. Apparently, the construction of agreement between participants that the coin has value is not that hard to achieve.

My exposure to Bitcoin is not as much as it has been. It may still rise to unbelievable heights but I see more value in the protocol itself and the use thereof that has not been established or even invented yet. Micro payments will be possible due to this technology and together with contextual computing, decentralising tendencies and crowdfunding/working, will mark a change in how we do things and get paid.

Society is moving from institutions (initially started as instruments) to emergent networks. The way money works will change (or... is changing already) as well from token to programmable software.

All this combined, the options are limitless.

Personally, I don't see my current Bitcoin investments having any value by 2030!

Something much closer to the reality of tech than eternal faith in that what is now. Invest acccordingly.

+1

Scenario F has a high probability > 50% IMHO for Bitcoin but not for Cryptocurrencies as a whole.
It has become incredibly easy to trade Cryptocurrency a for Cryptocurrency b.
Scrypt is a major reason why Litecoin may be here to stay.
There is an endless possibility of new Cryptocurrencies with desirable features, possibly linked to different communities (just look at DOGE, without the meme it is nothing)
Bitcoin has plenty of room to grow but to think that there will be only one unifying Cryptocurrency is a Dream in my oppinion.

(yeah, the TCP/IP argument ... just look at DirectX vs OpenGL.)
There is no serious pressure to stick to one standard as the effort for adding Cryptocurrency X to your services is quite low, especially if services can exist that auto-trade to your preferred Cryptocurrency)

[mladen00]

Hi

i think option C is best realistic option (mBTC 50-500$)

C. Bitcoin becomes an important independent world currency or a reserve currency with real bills, moderate fractional reserve, etc. Then it can go to the same value as the stock of world's gold, which is in the same ballpark as the M1 money of USD, EUR or JPY. This would put 1mBTC=$300.  (50-500$)

[wobber]

If 1 mBTC will ever be 10, I will do a naked skydive with a huge Bitcoin logo on my parachute and a small Bitcoin logo on my dick.

Guys... be realistic. Bitcoin is fun but going at 300,000 will make some people own what? 3,000,000,000!!? And that's just in Bitcoins.

Nobody has access to that kind of liquidity. Nobody. Bill Gates is rich, but he has buildings, jets, computers, wallpapers. Everthing is added and sum = his wealth.

[rpietila]

It is true that bitcoin's ascent will generate interesting stories about people who want to diversify their holdings. I cashed out about $3 million starting November and still none of the money has been used to buy the final product (real estate), and only half of it is in my bank. The current banking system is designed for maximum $50k transfers, and it takes really long to verify yourself in every nook and transfer in that small increments.

[wobber]

It is true that bitcoin's ascent will generate interesting stories about people who want to diversify their holdings. I cashed out about $3 million starting November and still none of the money has been used to buy the final product (real estate), and only half of it is in my bank. The current banking system is designed for maximum $50k transfers, and it takes really long to verify yourself in every nook and transfer in that small increments.

Don't want to hijack your thread but I'm very curious, and asked you on pm also (but no answer*):

Don't you feel unsafe with that amount of money in banks? And by real estate, you want one property or a whole building of apartments / condos (investing so you can take rent)

*Also don't want to step the line

[rpietila]

It is true that bitcoin's ascent will generate interesting stories about people who want to diversify their holdings. I cashed out about $3 million starting November and still none of the money has been used to buy the final product (real estate), and only half of it is in my bank. The current banking system is designed for maximum $50k transfers, and it takes really long to verify yourself in every nook and transfer in that small increments.

Don't want to hijack your thread but I'm very curious, and asked you on pm also (but no answer*):

Don't you feel unsafe with that amount of money in banks? And by real estate, you want one property or a whole building of apartments / condos (investing so you can take rent)

*Also don't want to step the line

Most people think that there are "safe" investments and "unsafe" investments. This is a fallacy. Every investment has a profile of risks and uncertainties, and they differ among asset classes, jurisdictions etc.

[An amorous cow-herder]

B. Bitcoin totally replaces fiat worldwide and becomes the sole reserve currency. Since the valuation of the world is $400T, and most of it is financial assets, which lose their raison d'etre in the non-inflationary Bitcoin-based economy, we can conservatively estimate that the hard monetary stock of bitcoins is worth $100T and thus a mBTC is $5,000. Maybe more, but if more, then it just means that the world will be different than what it is now and conventional valuations (I want a new car!) don't hold, due to the rapidly advancing technology.

Ok guys, you can stop guessing. My sources(*) have confirmed case B is actually correct. BTC will replace fiat globally and be worth the aequivalent of todays $100T! This will happen precisely in October the 20th in the year 3514!

(*) Source: "The worst investment tips of all time", Year 3600 edition, BTC with a avg interest rate of 0.6%.