bitcommon - BTC/USD - Technical Analysis.

[bitcommon]

Going forward all posts will be made under this thread as recommended by one of the moderators. Also, posting the Disclaimer once as part of this thread and it will apply to this thread's life.


SELL hold @ 1191 erased and now BTC is back to trending higher. Up trend intact against 825 (DAILY CLOSE basis STOP)
12/4 CLOSE > 1238 relieved the DAILY & WEEKLY waves SELL signal generated on 12/1/13
+ve development for up trend. This remains true even with today's sell-off once S-1185.75 was broken.

For 12/5 session
S=1057.10/1008.89/962
R=1156.89/1208.47/1232.00

Likely 12/6 range - 1008.89-1232. Below 1008.89 another quick wash out can occur to 800 intraday but DAILY CLOSES should remain above 1000

BTC/USD Cycle Studies - 12/6/13 is an important CIT and could mark the low from where up trend resumes.

> 1423.15 could see BTC go into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013

___________________
Mtgox BTC/USD - Technical Analysis
S=Support
R=Resistance

https://twitter.com/bitcommon



Disclaimer
The statements, opinions and analyses presented in these posts by bitcommon user handle ("I", "We", "Us") are provided as general information and for educational purposes. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in these posts is intended to be, not shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither bitcommon nor its author "Ro", Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Copyright 2011.

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[GriTBitS]

Were in waring season. So look for the downtrend to sideways. At the end of Dec right before the new year look for the price to start to pick up, like the last week of Dec. Then a nice big pop after the 1st! And a nice rise during earnings season. 2014 and the first half of 2015 are the last of the bull run for the stock market so look for those nice pushes each of the 4 earnings seasons!

[bitcommon]

Up trend intact against 825 (DAILY CLOSE basis STOP) - survived this one today on 12/6 BAR that closed at 845

12/4 CLOSE > 1238 relieved the DAILY & WEEKLY waves SELL signal generated on 12/1/13 - this will eventually pull the market up when the selling abates likely today that is 12/6/13 calendar day.

For 12/7 BAR
S=665.51/516.41 (666 devil's number may cease the crash and burn on 6+6,6 or 12/6 = 666 on 6+6,6)
R=825.10/959.49/1118.89

Likely 12/7 BAR  range - 665.51-1118.89, print of 960 confirms bottom is in

BTC/USD Cycle Studies -

12/6/13 is an important CIT and could mark the low from where up trend resumes.

That is from yesterday and the initial hit for 12/6 bar was also precisely at 800. Chances are we are a bottom today, below 516.41 things get really dicey as it can open trap door to 139.39 - so hopefully that scenario doesn't open up.

Once BTC/USD stabilizes and I see cycles kick in and price confirm the bottom, I will publish the December 2013 target for upside.

> 1423.15 could see BTC go into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013

[bitcommon]

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/9 BAR so keep those in mind always.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/9 session
S=767/745
R=934.46/1028.41/1126.87-1145 (strong R). The last number is likely high for the week and should cause an immediate turn back

Likely 12/9 range - 745-945. Below 745 another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them

[jamesc760]

Thanks, bitcommon!

You started a bit wrong but came around with the latter analysis. Hope you continue your TA's here for a long time!

[outofservice]

Nice Analysis!
Hope you keep them coming.

[bitcommon]

Thanks folks!

Yes, I have 14 years of trading system development experience - this model is new and it takes 1-3 years to fine tune models and I don't think it will be different this time either. I just started trading BTC/USD in the last 2 months - so a lot of stuff is a work in progress. Just built the Cycles model that will assist in timing going forward but I wouldn't say it is fully tested. However, I am encouraged by the 12/6 low hit.

If I post daily, I will be wrong at times and then right at times. Trader's edge is cutting losses short when wrong with risk management - it won't be any different with this financial instrument.

Here to stay with BTC's posterity :-)

- Ro

[pbody]

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/9 BAR so keep those in mind always.

Can you really accurately compare older bitcoin cycles with current? Its a different animal now.

[outofservice]

This new climb seems to be fueled by jet fuel, how high do you see it going?

For the month of Dec, once it passes 1k do you see it dipping below 900?

[bitcommon]

Can you really accurately compare older bitcoin cycles with current? Its a different animal now.

Child is the father of man!

That is the point of Cycles analysis, extracting the pulse of the beast from historical data.

[bitcommon]

This new climb seems to be fueled by jet fuel, how high do you see it going?

For the month of Dec, once it passes 1k do you see it dipping below 900?

Hello-
I had this in the original post above

December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

And yes, 900+ is where this thing is trying to base this week and this number will become momentous historically as that was the peak of Senate Hearing in US.

For this week, take it with a grain of salt as I am still watching and developing the model and the main issue with BTC is rapid expansion and contraction of Cycles - almost like a teenager's height - nothing gained for a bit and then suddenly you wake up 2 inches taller :-) No shrinkage though for teenagers but hopefully you get the point:-) So I am still adding code. Having said, that it is educational TA(technical analysis), and I don't mind sticking my neck out and being wrong -

Therefore, model says with current rhythm this week, we could see 1311 by late Wed/early Thu and then giveback.

Also, if someone can help me to watch this thread as I am not getting notifications if someone replies even though I checked "watch" below. Thanks!

[outofservice]

This new climb seems to be fueled by jet fuel, how high do you see it going?

For the month of Dec, once it passes 1k do you see it dipping below 900?

Hello-
I had this in the original post above

December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

And yes, 900+ is where this thing is trying to base this week and this number will become momentous historically as that was the peak of Senate Hearing in US.

For this week, take it with a grain of salt as I am still watching and developing the model and the main issue with BTC is rapid expansion and contraction of Cycles - almost like a teenager's height - nothing gained for a bit and then suddenly you wake up 2 inches taller :-) No shrinkage though for teenagers but hopefully you get the point:-) So I am still adding code. Having said, that it is educational TA(technical analysis), and I don't mind sticking my neck out and being wrong -

Therefore, model says with current rhythm this week, we could see 1311 by late Wed/early Thu and then giveback.

Also, if someone can help me to watch this thread as I am not getting notifications if someone replies even though I checked "watch" below. Thanks!

My gut agrees with you and I look forward to what the model has to say. Good luck with it!
I'll try to keep an eye out for replies to you.

[bitcommon]

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/10 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading it short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/10 session
S=841/801.96/760
R=1028.41/1126.87/1171/1191 (strong R)

Likely 12/10 range - (841-889) - (1072-1126). Below 760, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them

[notmichael]

Great thread. Thank you!

(As an aside, for any traders in here. Looking at the bitcoinwisdom.com chart, there's a yellow arrow showing the current price, and a moving gray arrow that is vertically in line, but fluctuates to something different, it seems. What does the gray arrow mean? Thanks!)

[bitcommon]

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/11 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/11 session
S=1028.41/956/841/801.96
R=1126.87/1171/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/11 range - (1028.41) - (1171-1221). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them.

[accord01]

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/11 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/11 session
S=1028.41/956/841/801.96
R=1126.87/1171/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/11 range - (1028.41) - (1171-1221). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them.

Forgive me if I am dumb, but what does Sell hold @ 1191 mean?  Is that the line for sell/hold?

Also, what does S and R stand for?

[bitcommon]

Forgive me if I am dumb, but what does Sell hold @ 1191 mean?  Is that the line for sell/hold?

Also, what does S and R stand for?

Sell hold is where the last SELL occurred in BTC/USD that caused the down leg to 576.

S=Support
R=Resistance

HTH

[bitcommon]

I couldn't get on to the site all evening! But here we go for 12/12 session

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/12 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/12 session
S=860/841/801.96
R=1006/1068/1119/1171/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/12 range - (860) - (1068). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them, and above 1068 - a move towards 1171 could build up this week. As always, if the likely range numbers are breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up.

[maxll]

There is something really wrong going on here. And now.

[pbody]

There is something really wrong going on here. And now.

Could you be any more vague?