Bitcoin is looking weak. Recommend you guys take profits soon over $1000.

[traderCJ]

I have now entered at top of market and done quite well, although am losing now and selling at lower prices than I paid to limit damage.

Oh man I considered you to be smarter than that. You just never sell bitcoin cheaper than you bought it, because every dip is a temporary retrace. Your panic mode for bitcoin should mean "stop buying" and then when you think it stopped falling you start buying again. Any other way - and you are just robbing yourself. Can't stop you, of course, but sad to see.

He is precisely the sort of investor who feeds whales :/

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[Edward50]

Be careful taking advice from the OP. His tribal name is "HeWhoWasBearAtSingleDigits".

You have to understand my decisions during that time were sound decisions. Bitcoin just months before sold for pennies, $30.00 was just a ridiculous price. Just like $1000 is totally insane and ridiculous.

When dealing with single digits, a swing from $5.00 to $1.00 is a 500% swing. That is huge, and is the same as going from $100 to $500.

So everything has to be taken into context with the time and the past historical values. Also, bitcoin is much older now and should be worth more than it was during that time. However, not $1000.00.

[Marbit]

Be careful taking advice from the OP. His tribal name is "HeWhoWasBearAtSingleDigits".

being a bear at $9 left a lot of room to scoop up much more coins

[Marbit]

Be careful taking advice from the OP. His tribal name is "HeWhoWasBearAtSingleDigits".

being a bear at $9 left a lot of room to scoop up much more coins

Most people fail at calling tops and bottoms. If you can, more power to you, literally.

agreed.... no need to call tops and bottoms, though. there is a sentiment on this board that bears are always wrong, but the fact is, it pays off very well sometimes

[Le Happy Merchant]

You have to understand my decisions during that time were sound decisions. Bitcoin just months before sold for pennies, $30.00 was just a ridiculous price. Just like $1000 is totally insane and ridiculous.

When dealing with single digits, a swing from $5.00 to $1.00 is a 500% swing. That is huge, and is the same as going from $100 to $500.

So everything has to be taken into context with the time and the past historical values. Also, bitcoin is much older now and should be worth more than it was during that time. However, not $1000.00.

A swing from $0.01 to $0.05 happened though, and $0.10 to $0.50, $1.00 to $5.00, $10 to $50, $100 to $500, and of course, $1000 must be where it stops.

[beetcoin]

yeah, um, acting like your opinion is absolute and calling someone stupid for thinking BTC's value is higher than $1k.. this sounds like a troll post to me.

[Jrock]

Trying to predict which way the price is going is useless unless you're holding thousands and thousands of coins... it's honestly just gambling.

Either get out, or hold. 

[danielW]

Go to google type in bitcoin news and theres some bad sounding headlines. There is nothing particularly revealing in them tho.

Plus we had a huge run up, people need to get comfortable with four digit prices, before we go up again.

[JimboToronto]

Go to google type in bitcoin news

May as well just type in FUD.

 

[Pente]

Could you give us a link to that old prediction?

[Tzupy]

Yes i'd like to sell more but for mysterious reasons bitstamp is blocking all bitcoins deposits today...

Maybe they already got a huge bitcoin deposit yesterday, and today they want to sell their own stash before others do.

[elebit]

It's one thing to know when to sell. It's even more important to know when to buy back!

Did you buy back at, say $5? Sorry for being so harsh, but if you didn't then your advice is useless.

Selling at $20 and buying back at $50 is much worse than doing nothing at all... (unless of course you want to exit the bitcoin economy altogether?)

[Tirapon]

I have now entered at top of market and done quite well, although am losing now and selling at lower prices than I paid to limit damage.

Oh man I considered you to be smarter than that. You just never sell bitcoin cheaper than you bought it, because every dip is a temporary retrace. Your panic mode for bitcoin should mean "stop buying" and then when you think it stopped falling you start buying again. Any other way - and you are just robbing yourself. Can't stop you, of course, but sad to see.

He is precisely the sort of investor who feeds whales :/

Added to the list of examples of how not to do it.

-MatTheCat (this thread)
-joburgtaxi (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=358584.0)

First they buy, then price drops, so they sell in order to 'limit damage'. Then when its going up again, and its 'proved' that it is now on an upward trajectory (after having climbed quite a way), they buy back in. This buy high sell low strategy is not a good way to make money.

[Hfertig]

Seems like I'm reliving the first bitcoin bubble which I was very active in.

I got into it when bitcoin first rose up to around $30 in 2010 or 2011, I forget now. I wanted to buy and I was in the forums listening to all the euphoric people. I slowly watched it lose steam, regain steam, and slowly look weaker and weaker.

To me right now bitcoin just looks weak and I think it will be going much lower during the next few weeks.

Just like in 2011, I told everybody while the price was still over $20 that they were crazy to not take profits and cash out at that time. Wasn't a few months it was at $2.00. Call me stupid but I did call $1.00 bitcoins at that time for a long time even though people thought it was crazy and flamed me to hell, I missed my $1.00 range to buy in as it hit $2.01. I was close enough. Same stupid mistake was I predicted oil would hit $20 a barrel in around 2008, it hit like $30, my plan to buy in big at $20 and I missed that opportunity.

While I don't hit my marks, at least I predict big downfalls, contrary to what most people believe.

I'm going to say to everybody that if you are not unloading a large portion of your bitcoins over $1000, you are simply crazy as a $1000 bitcoin is just not sustainable, and is outright ludicrous at this time. I am going to even say further that you are ridiculously stupid if you don't cash out a sizeable amount at over $1000, especially if your bitcoins were bought below $100.

The reason why bitcoin hit around $30 the first time, and over $1000 this time is that their are big players or manipulators, I like to call them. They pump the price up high, get people euphoric and get interest into the coin, then slowly dump the coin to make profits. Pump and dump I guess you can call the strategy.

This strategy simply works, it almost gets me (probably the most frugal person in the world) to buy bitcoins during the first bubble at $30, and even now at $1000. Because I am the most frugal person around I just can't get myself to buy at ridiculously stupid price points. I wait to buy at what you would consider my stupid price points, which get close but never hit. My point is that if these manipulators get frugal people like me to consider buying at these insane prices, it gets a lot of normal people to pump money into the system in which they profit from.

My last point is, don't be stupid and greedy and take money from these rich manipulators. They will soon be letting the price fall very soon and doing a controlled drop while cashing out all the coins they accumulated when bitcoin was much cheaper.

Flame away, but I will stick to my position.

I do very much agree to this. Everybody owning bitcoin is sitting on paper profits. A lot of people feel filthy rich ! But paper profits are nothing until you realize these. Has anyone ever thought what would happen if just 1% of all investors cash out. (or if everyone just sells 1% of his holding to buy X-mas gifts). This would be 120.000 coins coming to the market. The orderbooks do not look like as they would be able to cope with that without bringing the price significantly down. This does not include other people selling in panic.

The current small dips we have seen lately give an impression what could happen. If you compare the volume on these dips to the previous crashes, they are minor. This is just the beginning. I have seen 2000 coins moving the market by 10%. I know some people who have much more than that and hold tight, once they start selling.

This all went to fast and the smart investor will cash out at some point and I believe the point is coming closer. My personal target is the old peak of USD 266... I might be wrong and we might go much deeper.

Flame away...

[JakeGold]

Seems like I'm reliving the first bitcoin bubble which I was very active in.

[...]

To me right now bitcoin just looks weak and I think it will be going much lower during the next few weeks.

Flame away, but I will stick to my position.

Barring your past predictions/inaccuracy, what would you say the bottom will be this time?

From what I've learned about bubbles and bitcoin, I'd say your sentiment is spot on. Considering we were at $100 not that long ago, and looking at the current bitcoin mania, a >$1000 bitcoin will eventually lose steam.

[JakeGold]

My personal target is the old peak of USD 266... I might be wrong and we might go much deeper.

My (speculative) math is showing USD 296, so I'm betting on 350, but the extraordinary thing about bitcoin, is that it will most likely recover, and shoot even further in a very short time span.

Just compare the April 2013 bubble to the NASDAQ (IXIC) 2000 bubble. Bitcoin went through the same motions in a single month instead of 5 years. Incredible.

[Hfertig]

My personal target is the old peak of USD 266... I might be wrong and we might go much deeper.

My (speculative) math is showing USD 296, so I'm betting on 350, but the extraordinary thing about bitcoin, is that it will most likely recover, and shoot even further in a very short time span.

Just compare the April 2013 bubble to the NASDAQ (IXIC) 2000 bubble. Bitcoin went through the same motions in a single month instead of 5 years. Incredible.

Interesting, thanks for sharing. For those who believe in Chartanalysis, we have broken the daily 200 sma are failing to re-break for further upside. And the weekend is near....

[NorbyTheGeek]

Seems like I'm reliving the first bitcoin bubble which I was very active in.

I got into it when bitcoin first rose up to around $30 in 2010 or 2011, I forget now. I wanted to buy and I was in the forums listening to all the euphoric people. I slowly watched it lose steam, regain steam, and slowly look weaker and weaker.

To me right now bitcoin just looks weak and I think it will be going much lower during the next few weeks.

Just like in 2011, I told everybody while the price was still over $20 that they were crazy to not take profits and cash out at that time. Wasn't a few months it was at $2.00. Call me stupid but I did call $1.00 bitcoins at that time for a long time even though people thought it was crazy and flamed me to hell, I missed my $1.00 range to buy in as it hit $2.01. I was close enough. Same stupid mistake was I predicted oil would hit $20 a barrel in around 2008, it hit like $30, my plan to buy in big at $20 and I missed that opportunity.

While I don't hit my marks, at least I predict big downfalls, contrary to what most people believe.

I'm going to say to everybody that if you are not unloading a large portion of your bitcoins over $1000, you are simply crazy as a $1000 bitcoin is just not sustainable, and is outright ludicrous at this time. I am going to even say further that you are ridiculously stupid if you don't cash out a sizeable amount at over $1000, especially if your bitcoins were bought below $100.

The reason why bitcoin hit around $30 the first time, and over $1000 this time is that their are big players or manipulators, I like to call them. They pump the price up high, get people euphoric and get interest into the coin, then slowly dump the coin to make profits. Pump and dump I guess you can call the strategy.

This strategy simply works, it almost gets me (probably the most frugal person in the world) to buy bitcoins during the first bubble at $30, and even now at $1000. Because I am the most frugal person around I just can't get myself to buy at ridiculously stupid price points. I wait to buy at what you would consider my stupid price points, which get close but never hit. My point is that if these manipulators get frugal people like me to consider buying at these insane prices, it gets a lot of normal people to pump money into the system in which they profit from.

My last point is, don't be stupid and greedy and take money from these rich manipulators. They will soon be letting the price fall very soon and doing a controlled drop while cashing out all the coins they accumulated when bitcoin was much cheaper.

Flame away, but I will stick to my position.

No flame intended, but you'll have to forgive me if I decide not to take your advice.  Your arguments are less than compelling.

Arguments like "the price is ludicrous" and "you're crazy if you don't take profits now" without any sound logical reasoning behind them are not very convincing, and have the tone of someone who is nervous about losing whatever profits they could take right now.  And reasoning like "I've successfully called the crash before!" also doesn't hold water if your reasoning behind calling the last plunge was also emotional.  Inflammatory language like "stupid" and "crazy" tends to distance people from your argument, as does bullying your audience.

When you say "To me right now bitcoin just looks weak" without any logical arguments behind that conclusion, your argument appears strictly emotional.

One thing your post does tell me is that there are people in the market that are getting nervous and are about to sell for emotional reasons, and that once the price does dip a bit those emotional traders will panic and sell.  In a way, your prediction is self-fulfilling.

As for me, I have very little fiat in the market, but that value has grown quite a lot.  I plan to keep holding.  If Bitcoin continues to rise, or rises again after your predicted dip, I'm good.  If it ever crashes to 0, I'm not out much money.

I disagree that the current price is due to "rich" manipulators.  If people are doing anything in the market, they're taking advantage of panic sells in order to gain more profits, and you may be playing into their hands.

I am no expert, and have very little experience in these kinds of things.  These are simply my observations.

[TERA]

If anything it looks pretty strong, i think most people here expected the 1000+ price to be as short-lived as 250$+ back in the day.

$250 in April was a lot different because the price had moved up there very quickly with no corrections and no price history. We were at $265 with a daily EMA of $115 and a weekly EMA of $50. Now we are at $1050 with a daily EMA of $910 and a weekly EMA of $400.

The part where we 'flashcrash' back to EMAs is already over. Any drop now is a slow capitulation grind, with a lowest possible target of $400.

[CoinGeneral]

With this kind of prediction you're going to make people sell, which will make the prices go down, which might make other people sell. Then at one point someone will say "The price is going up now" and people will buy, which makes the prices go up, which might make even more people buy.

Kind of like this:


Self-fulfilling prophecy