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Author Topic: why is bitcoin price not going up?  (Read 2398 times)
kokjo
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August 09, 2011, 11:46:12 AM
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just say if im wrong, but bitcoins should go up, when the dollar goes down right?
because the dollar have a lower value then it has last week, and the value of bitcoins are the same.
the price should go up.

now, why isn't  it doing that? speculators are panicking?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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miscreanity
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August 09, 2011, 11:50:12 AM
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Talk about perfect timing - Mt. Gox price just shot up over $10/BTC.

Patience, grasshopper Smiley
kokjo
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August 09, 2011, 11:51:17 AM
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Talk about perfect timing - Mt. Gox price just shot up over $10/BTC.

Patience, grasshopper Smiley
man! i did not look at mtgox today. Smiley nice to see it is going up Smiley

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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August 10, 2011, 12:58:26 AM
 #4

just say if im wrong, but bitcoins should go up, when the dollar goes down right?
because the dollar have a lower value then it has last week, and the value of bitcoins are the same.
the price should go up.

now, why isn't  it doing that? speculators are panicking?

USD moves are relatively small (~1% per day) while other factors in the market (ie uncertainty from thefts, large sell or buy orders) cause a much more significant move.  Most likely the USD moves had some effect but it was largely unnoticable.

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August 10, 2011, 03:48:28 AM
 #5

just say if im wrong, but bitcoins should go up, when the dollar goes down right?
because the dollar have a lower value then it has last week, and the value of bitcoins are the same.
the price should go up.

now, why isn't  it doing that? speculators are panicking?

The dollar is a recognised safe haven in times of trouble.  Bitcoin is a high risk, highly speculative commodity.  Bitcoin is still recovering from its own massive speculative bubble and hasn't found its 'true' price yet.

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August 10, 2011, 07:31:54 AM
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The dollar is a recognised safe haven in times of trouble.

I'm not sure if you're sarcastic. My detector is broken

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August 10, 2011, 12:23:08 PM
 #7

Gold is safe haven like bitcoins, very much unlike dollars..
In times of trouble, investors go back to gold hence causing the price of gold to go up.
Those who hold bitcoins may arbitrate temporalily in favor of gold to benefit from the rush then take their profits.
As more and more people hold bitcoins, they will soon move in sync with gold.
Bitcoins have this additionnal benefit that their trading is a lot easier than gold trading.

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August 10, 2011, 01:01:35 PM
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The dollar is a recognised safe haven in times of trouble.
I'm not sure if you're sarcastic. My detector is broken

It is true, actually.  Look at what happened in 2008.

Our bullshit money is the best bullshit money on the planet.

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miscreanity
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August 10, 2011, 03:00:08 PM
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Our bullshit money is the best bullshit money on the planet.

Quote of the month! That's a Tweet.
kokjo
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August 10, 2011, 03:42:05 PM
 #10

just say if im wrong, but bitcoins should go up, when the dollar goes down right?
because the dollar have a lower value then it has last week, and the value of bitcoins are the same.
the price should go up.

now, why isn't  it doing that? speculators are panicking?

And the answer is  ... drumroll ... supply > demand (big surprise).

All you have to do us buy $1M USD worth of BTC, and the price will go up.

yes but the question is why is no one doing that?
don't they want to get away from the sinking USD ship?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
miscreanity
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August 10, 2011, 03:44:24 PM
 #11

Actually, as far as monopoly money goes, CHF is holding a
lot better than USD.

Not sure if you're aware - I've been hearing rumblings about the Swiss considering some form of linkage between the franc and gold. It would seem that everyone will need to move to a float against gold in order to maintain relevance. With that as the case, Bitcoin should shine as the ideal gold ratio standard currency.
5grainsilver
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August 10, 2011, 03:50:01 PM
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So how is the weather today in fantasy land?
miscreanity
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August 10, 2011, 03:56:49 PM
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yes but the question is why is no one doing that?
don't they want to get away from the sinking USD ship?

The Bitcoin economy is still too small to handle a massive influx of capital just yet. There's also the global perspective to consider. Until Bitcoin gains legitimacy, it'll be viewed with curiosity rather than a valid place to park cash reserves.

As for getting away from USD, every economy is interconnected. That makes a transition very difficult. It's like fixing a ball of string that's all knotted - unless you want to start cutting pieces, you need to spend the time to undo the mess.

Too much disturbance and companies, entire business sectors and even nations could fall into turmoil. Mergers and acquisitions spark on a daily basis, margins get squeezed and national borders become blurred. As ambiguity increases, tensions accelerate and cooler heads lose out to reactionary effects (lawsuits, political maneuvering, war).

On the other hand, shaking things up can spur growth and new ideas...

So how is the weather today in fantasy land?

Mostly sunny, chance of showers in the afternoon.
kokjo
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August 10, 2011, 03:59:54 PM
 #14

So how is the weather today in fantasy land?
Mostly sunny, chance of showers in the afternoon.
LOL! SELL SELL SELL!

(sorry, i just had to do it)

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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August 10, 2011, 04:08:27 PM
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Bitcoin swings 50% like it is nothing.  It could be made worthless by government intervention.  That is not a safe haven lol. 
miscreanity
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August 10, 2011, 04:18:53 PM
 #16

LOL! SELL SELL SELL!

(sorry, i just had to do it)

Umbrellas for 5 BTC?

Bitcoin swings 50% like it is nothing.  It could be made worthless by government intervention.  That is not a safe haven lol. 

No gov't has global jurisdiction... yet. The swings seem relatively normal for the rate of growth and level of risk.

USD in safehaven is accurate as compared to BTC at this point in time ... essentially safe haven meter is as follows:

low risk < little more risk < risky < very risky
Gold < Garden Insects < USD < BTC

The price right now is entirely based on supply and demand .... simply put the inflation of BTC is actually higher that the USD right now with 50 BTC added every 10 minutes ish compared to the current total.  So rising prices are indicative of much higher demand, usage and speculative investing rather than the inflation of either currency.

Now this is just the snap shot in time as it is today.  Once security concerns are addressed (not necessarily with the Bitcoin network itself), and the image of it being used for everyday legal things as opposed to a criminal's wet dream, and people stop looking at it as it's value versus fiat currency but instead look at it's value against actual goods and services.... then BTC will drop quite possibly down next to Gold for it's risk factor.

Well said!

How many USD are printed every 10 minutes?
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August 10, 2011, 04:56:11 PM
 #17

Bitcoin swings 50% like it is nothing.  It could be made worthless by government intervention.  That is not a safe haven lol. 

Gold swings 500% over 10 years or so. Gold has been severely devalued and confiscated by government in the past. Try confiscating bicoins.

Silver has swings of 1000+ %.

Are they not safe havens? Yes, PM are still considered a safe haven.

Contrary to your "conclusion", they swing back UP after a downswing.
miscreanity
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August 10, 2011, 07:50:54 PM
 #18

This is just an estimate from a likely outdated source (ie. it is probably higher currently but....), it is approximately 7,000,000 USD (from the estimated 1,008,000,000 per day if I did my math right).  Now that sounds like a heck of a lot don't it?!?!?!.... but you also add in this factor:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/ which is reasonably current... There are approximately 1956.6 Billion USD which if I do my math right equals 1,956,600,000,000 USD  .... % money creation aproximately (and with gross assumptions and potentially compounding mathematical errors and rounding issues...) 3.577634672390882e-4

Interesting, thanks viper.

That's actually about half of what Bitcoin's inflation is currently, just by a basic approximation of 50/7000000. Of course, as soon as the drop from 50 BTC per block to 25 next year, the rate will be about even. If the dollar continues to be debased, the ratio may well swing the other way.

Out of sheer amusement, taking M1 at $1.956 trillion, Bitcoin exchanged nominally against only USD and without any other considerations would be about $280,000 per BTC.
miscreanity
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August 10, 2011, 09:28:25 PM
 #19

No, I haven't heard, and I'm wondering where you heard that.

Right now, the CHF being super strong causes no end of trouble for the
swiss govt. (swiss businesses can't export, swiss people are massively
going shopping in nearby eurozone thereby bankrupting local shops).

I'm at a total loss as to why they'd want to peg CHF to gold instead
of devaluating to rebalance things out.


I highly doubt it would be a direct peg - that'd be disastrous. A ranged ratio float (such as Freegold or Jim Sinclair's gold certificate ratio) would be much more realistic, but not with the current volatility in gold prices.
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