Will BTC hit $10.000 in Q1 of 2014 ?

[hope4me]

Q1 of 2014 not likely, my guess is that BTC will be around $10k at the end of 2015.

[zimmah]

End of Q2 at the earliest.  We could see $5000 by the end of Q1 maybe, but more likely $3000.

I would forecast this
$1200 Jan 2014
$2000 Mar 2014
$4000 Oct 2014
$5000 Dec 2014

Based loosely on what happening in 2013

seems about right

[donbu7]

look at this posts
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0;topicseen

Dec 2020: 150000000000$
Dec 2050: you get the idea


-> and this is exactly what rpietila did. I think he also never heard of a S-curve.

That is crazy that is insane, get a life, I mean btc will never hit that number, that you can not even read.

I love BTC but i am more realistic I think over 1 year BTC will die

[I_bitcoin]

look at this posts
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0;topicseen

I love exploration like that. Bitcoin was at 13$ one year ago. So the price is risen 6600%. So therefore the in one year the price is at 50 000$. An by the end of 2015 we see 350 000$. And guess what we see in 2040  

Oh yeah, from dec 2011 to dec 2012 it were only 400%?

Hm let's see:
Dec 2009: 0$, so we skip that.
Dec 2010: 0.24$
Dec 2011: 3.5$
Dec 2012: 13$
Dec 2013: 900$

So we draw a regression line. Or let's just calculate: 0.24*(growing rate)^3 = 900$
-> 1500%
So:
Dec 2014: 13,500$
Dec 2015: 200,000$
Dec 2020: 150000000000$
Dec 2050: you get the idea


-> and this is exactly what rpietila did. I think he also never heard of a S-curve.

Where are we on the s-curve?   I think we are very low and the market is far from saturation.   Assume all smart phone holders might be a good top end number for adoption (although M-Pesa and such are still key)

[qwertyGuy]

I love BTC but i am more realistic I think over 1 year BTC will die

BTC will not die even with very high crash. BTC does not care about price, Bitcoin is useable at any price

[flynn]

Money is so 20th century !

[zimmah]

look at this posts
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0;topicseen

I love exploration like that. Bitcoin was at 13$ one year ago. So the price is risen 6600%. So therefore the in one year the price is at 50 000$. An by the end of 2015 we see 350 000$. And guess what we see in 2040  

Oh yeah, from dec 2011 to dec 2012 it were only 400%?

Hm let's see:
Dec 2009: 0$, so we skip that.
Dec 2010: 0.24$
Dec 2011: 3.5$
Dec 2012: 13$
Dec 2013: 900$

So we draw a regression line. Or let's just calculate: 0.24*(growing rate)^3 = 900$
-> 1500%
So:
Dec 2014: 13,500$
Dec 2015: 200,000$
Dec 2020: 150000000000$
Dec 2050: you get the idea


-> and this is exactly what rpietila did. I think he also never heard of a S-curve.

Where are we on the s-curve?   I think we are very low and the market is far from saturation.   Assume all smart phone holders might be a good top end number for adoption (although M-Pesa and such are still key)

exactly, the exponential increase will stop at some point, but it's not at all unlikely we're going to see $100,000 or $1,000,000 or even $10,000,000

yes, i'm fully aware that $1,000,000 per BTC would put us in a trillion market cap, but there's a lot of money floating around so it's not as unrealistic as you may think initially. It could happen by 2020ish (or earlier or later, it all depends on what stage of the S curve we are in and how long the curve will continue).

look at it this way, there will only be a couple of people EVER that will hold >1BTC and even less that have >10,000BTC, currently there's only a handful of people that has $1,000,000 and even less that have a billion. So, if bitcoin becomes one of the most important currencies (and there's really no reason for it not to become a significant world currency), it's not unlikely that we would have bitcoin billionaires and millionaires. There are already some, but still there's way less bitcoin millionaires (in $) compared to millionaires in stock markets.

[beetcoin]

extremely unlikely i'd say. when people measure btc's increase in terms of ratios, they think "it's only 10x of what it currently is." but people seem to forget that 10x of where we currently are.. is a really big market cap. it means at least 100 billion more dollars need to enter the market.

[flynn]

extremely unlikely i'd say. when people measure btc's increase in terms of ratios, they think "it's only 10x of what it currently is." but people seem to forget that 10x of where we currently are.. is a really big market cap. it means at least 100 billion more dollars need to enter the market.

ok

But what's 100b$ for a payment tool the size of a planet ?

[beetcoin]

extremely unlikely i'd say. when people measure btc's increase in terms of ratios, they think "it's only 10x of what it currently is." but people seem to forget that 10x of where we currently are.. is a really big market cap. it means at least 100 billion more dollars need to enter the market.

ok

But what's 100b$ for a payment tool the size of a planet ?

what does that matter? the guy think it will happen in 3 months or so. bitcoin is much more risky than any other asset or investment. many people are standing by the sidelines waiting to see what happens.

[Ibian]

Say 100 million people each have for $1000 in bitcoin. With 12 million coins available the minimum value would be over $4500. That's a tiny fraction of the planet and a tiny amount of money per person. And that's just the theoretical minimum, it doesn't account for the subjective value people place on it which would drive the price higher. We haven't seen anything yet. Six digits are entirely achievable, realistic, and sustainable. Especially when fiat really begins to crash.

On the short term, just look at the trend. Minimum tenfold increase/year. That's how fast new and revolutionary technology grows and we are still in the very, very early beginning stages.

[flynn]

it does matter because if it is enough to gather 10b$, it can gather 100b$

[Syke]

extremely unlikely i'd say. when people measure btc's increase in terms of ratios, they think "it's only 10x of what it currently is." but people seem to forget that 10x of where we currently are.. is a really big market cap. it means at least 100 billion more dollars need to enter the market.

"market cap" doesn't really exist. Not all coins in existence are available on the market. If sellers stop selling at less than $10k then the price will rise to $10k. This could happen with no additional money in the market.

[Peter R]

extremely unlikely i'd say. when people measure btc's increase in terms of ratios, they think "it's only 10x of what it currently is." but people seem to forget that 10x of where we currently are.. is a really big market cap. it means at least 100 billion more dollars need to enter the market.

When bitcoin fell from $1200 to $600 recently, the market cap declined from about $14 billion to about $7 billion.  According to your statement above, $7 billion dollars must have exited the market.  Of course this was not the case if you think about it.  

My guess is that it would take more like $25 billion entering the market to increase the market cap to $100 billion.  If bitcoin investors are weaker hands than I expect it would take more than $25 billion, and if they are stronger hands than i expect, it would take less than $25 billion dollars.  

[TERA]

Seriously guys a 30,000% gain in one year isn't enough for you? It has to be 300,000%? You are being filthy greedy. Give it a rest. We are already dangerously above the exponential growth trend as it is with two major rallies within 7 months of each other!

[Ibian]

Seriously guys a 30,000% gain in one year isn't enough for you? It has to be 300,000%? You are being filthy greedy. Give it a rest. We are already dangerously above the exponential growth trend as it is with two major rallies within 7 months of each other!

True enough, but do we know how fast these things grow at different stages of the game? Do we have anything to compare to? It still all comes down to supply and demand, nothing we post here will really change that.

[babeq]

Imo it couldn't get that high. I will be max 2500 USD. But it just my own opinion

[Luckybit]

My own view is that it will reach $5k within 12 months.

Its just frustrating having no money to throw at it, although, I know if I was borrowing money, I would have wasted it on various alt coins! ;-)

60-150k within 12 months.

[BitchicksHusband]

End of Q2 at the earliest.  We could see $5000 by the end of Q1 maybe, but more likely $3000.

I would forecast this
$1200 Jan 2014
$2000 Mar 2014
$4000 Oct 2014
$5000 Dec 2014

Based loosely on what happening in 2013

Based on what happened in 2013, we would see:
$  1,330 Jan 1
$  2,050 Feb 1
$  3,450 Mar 1
$10,400 Apr 1
$11,500 May 1
$12,925 Jun 1
$  9,200 Jul  1
$10,600 Aug 1
$14,400 Sep 1
$14,200 Oct 1
$20,300 Nov 1
$95,000 Dec 1

[sgbett]

End of Q2 at the earliest.  We could see $5000 by the end of Q1 maybe, but more likely $3000.

I would forecast this
$1200 Jan 2014
$2000 Mar 2014
$4000 Oct 2014
$5000 Dec 2014

Based loosely on what happening in 2013

Based on what happened in 2013, we would see:
$  1,330 Jan 1
$  2,050 Feb 1
$  3,450 Mar 1
$10,400 Apr 1
$11,500 May 1
$12,925 Jun 1
$  9,200 Jul  1
$10,600 Aug 1
$14,400 Sep 1
$14,200 Oct 1
$20,300 Nov 1
$95,000 Dec 1

And once again that familiar feeling of amusement at the thought of it happening, mixed with a large dose of rationally thinking that that shit can't possibly happen, topped with a slice of, but what if it does ... again...!!?