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Author Topic: This rally could have been predicted by using Google Trends.  (Read 1466 times)
lacedwithkerosene (OP)
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August 09, 2011, 07:16:38 PM
Last edit: August 09, 2011, 08:06:59 PM by lacedwithkerosene
 #1
The markets tend to go up the day after heavy news and search traffic. I had noticed a week-long trend of increased searches but the market had been staying even, so it was to be expected that it would make a strong move. If you were following search trends during the last couple of weeks where price was very stable but drained a few cents every day, search volume for bitcoin was remarkably flat.



http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
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August 09, 2011, 07:20:27 PM
 #2
1. Buy some bitcoins.
2. Do something newsworthy so that Google Trends will rise.
3. Sell bitcoins.
4. Profit!
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August 09, 2011, 07:32:30 PM
 #3
Quote from: lacedwithkerosene on August 09, 2011, 07:16:38 PM
Well, it was by me at least  Cheesy



http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0

This would also have made you buy on Aug 03, losing money.
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August 09, 2011, 07:55:25 PM
Last edit: August 09, 2011, 08:08:02 PM by lacedwithkerosene
 #4
Quote from: bb on August 09, 2011, 07:32:30 PM
This would also have made you buy on Aug 03, losing money.

This is a search volume graph, not a financial graph. The market lags a day behind heavy news and search traffic. Price may shoot up on a day that search volume falls. Do you have historical daily prices saved somewhere? I do not recall if btc price fell significantly on the 4th.
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August 09, 2011, 08:41:08 PM
 #5
It's not exactly easy to extract dates from these charts: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zig5-minzvztgSzbgBza1gWMAzm1g2za2gWMAzm2g5zxzi1gVolzi2gUO
Tasty Champa
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August 10, 2011, 02:06:02 AM
 #6
Quote from: lacedwithkerosene on August 09, 2011, 07:55:25 PM
Quote from: bb on August 09, 2011, 07:32:30 PM
This would also have made you buy on Aug 03, losing money.

This is a search volume graph, not a financial graph. The market lags a day behind heavy news and search traffic. Price may shoot up on a day that search volume falls. Do you have historical daily prices saved somewhere? I do not recall if btc price fell significantly on the 4th.

fell on the 4th and fell significantly on the 5th:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zczsg2011-07-04zeg2011-07-06zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25
lacedwithkerosene (OP)
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August 10, 2011, 02:16:07 AM
 #7
Quote from: Tasty Z ToyBoxen on August 10, 2011, 02:06:02 AM
fell on the 4th and fell significantly on the 5th:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zczsg2011-07-04zeg2011-07-06zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25

You selected July, not August.
August 3rd: Search volume goes up (as price happens to fall)
August 4th: Price rises (as search volume happens to fall)
Again, the day after higher search volume, the market seems to have reacted.
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August 10, 2011, 08:26:50 AM
 #8
All the crystal ball gazers were too busy predicting a further decline to even think about the possibility of a rally Smiley
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