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Author Topic: Why Bitcoin will collapse in price.  (Read 24152 times)
knarzo
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December 12, 2013, 03:06:50 PM
 #201

@knarzo:

Some monkeys would rather the group dies than for one monkey to be admitted to be a natural leader.

Those groups perish.

(implication is I won't be joining your group)

I'm happy that those doom and gloom glorifying folks, NWO racists, religious wackos and people like you, which are experts on everything and think to know everything but spending a lifetime on a forum trying to proselytize, will never join the group i'm in. At least we agree on this Wink

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December 12, 2013, 03:20:55 PM
 #202


That's an interesting point. But I can't get if your are talking about the price or the "adoption", i mean: a speculator "adopts" bitcoins iff he buys them once, it doesn't matter if he sells them after.  And that should be S shaped.

Also "hoarding function" should be S shaped, where hoarding means truly belive in long term prospects of bitcoin and do not sell  under a very high price.

We need a model of demand/supply, given this two S shaped extremes. Just thinking loudly.


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December 12, 2013, 06:39:49 PM
 #203


That's an interesting point. But I can't get if your are talking about the price or the "adoption", i mean: a speculator "adopts" bitcoins iff he buys them once, it doesn't matter if he sells them after.  And that should be S shaped.

Also "hoarding function" should be S shaped, where hoarding means truly belive in long term prospects of bitcoin and do not sell  under a very high price.

We need a model of demand/supply, given this two S shaped extremes. Just thinking loudly.

Incorrect.

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December 12, 2013, 08:06:46 PM
 #204


That's an interesting point. But I can't get if your are talking about the price or the "adoption", i mean: a speculator "adopts" bitcoins iff he buys them once, it doesn't matter if he sells them after.  And that should be S shaped.

Also "hoarding function" should be S shaped, where hoarding means truly belive in long term prospects of bitcoin and do not sell  under a very high price.

We need a model of demand/supply, given this two S shaped extremes. Just thinking loudly.

Incorrect.

sorry, but if you are pointing there on a non constant regression line (like rpitelia's) this, i think, does not affect the overall s shaped quality of the curve... I'm a newbie here so i like to share thoughts. Very interesting matter, indeed.
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December 12, 2013, 09:06:21 PM
 #205


1) Medium of exchange.

Bitcoin is only a medium of exchange when merchants accept it and hold onto it. Right now merchants are dumping bitcoin for dollars, so its not being used as a medium of exchange. This btw. also throws the transaction cost benefit argument right out of the window (spread).

Now will merchants ever accept bitcoin and hold onto them?
No.

Why?

Its a matter of perspective, some see it as a medium of exchange, others as a pseudo-commodity that can be held / traded for real currency, in the latter case it is seen as a form of investment and in this way its capability to act as a medium of exchange with merchants bears little relevance. By analogy, merchants do not use gold or other commodities as a medium of exchange, yet they have value.

Quote
a) Governments have already effectively made it impossible for people to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange, as they expect taxes to be paid on bitcoin gains. Thus it cant function as a medium of exchange (same goes for gold btw.). Unless Government loses its control on its money monopoly this law wont be altered.

b) Governments will prohibt merchants from accepting bitcoins. Again: They will never give up their monoply on money.

2) Store of Value

After people realize that merchants are not adopting bitcoin and that it is not used as a medium of exchange, it will collapse in price. Will anybody store significant wealth in Bitcoin after this spectacular collapse? Not likely.


Pretty sure someone has corrected you on this point already, there is no single central world bank that regulates currency, as such all major governments would have to be on board to destroy the use of cryptos, in any case your proposition is baseless, there is no way for you to know governments are going to ban bitcoins.

Quote
Also Bitcoin is a technology, that can be outcompeted by other altcoins. Your wallet can be hacked. The average citizen cant judge if the code can or can not be hacked and thus more bitcoins created. If you want to store wealth over a long period of time investing in a technology is not the best and easiest option. Also Bitcoin is not useful or wanted. If you ask a Bitcoiner what can I do with it they will say: dump it on the next guy it will go up in price! Gold and Silver where always wanted (jewlery and nowadays industry) and thats why they became MONEY in the first place! They have unique properties and everybody love to hold them in their hand. This will always be the case ensuring significant value and acceptance. Nothing like this can be said for bitcoins. Thus I dont believe bitcoin will function as a store of value in any significant way.

Cool, so basically you're scared, in that case sell your bitcoins and move on ?

NB: It is and has always been the people who provided the impetus for the development and evolution of bitcoins and cryptocurrencies, these people have been staunch supporters of anarchy and anonymity, they have never relied on any government for assistance. Therefore so long as the people will it, use of crypto currencies will rise, but if the people are fearful of governments or a centralized power in general, that fear will allow those in power to walk over those who support such a movement, and destroy cryptos. If you do believe in the movement, and do believe in cryptos you should remain positive and do whatever you can to promote them, if you are only in it to make money, well, I hope you lose it all.
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December 12, 2013, 09:50:08 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2013, 10:36:21 PM by porc
 #206


Pretty sure someone has corrected you on this point already, there is no single central world bank that regulates currency, as such all major governments would have to be on board to destroy the use of cryptos, in any case your proposition is baseless, there is no way for you to know governments are going to ban bitcoins.



"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."  Mayer Amschel Rothschild


1) Method 1: Prohibition of alternatives and showcases

"The Liberty Dollar (ALD) was a private currency produced in the United States. The currency was issued in minted metal rounds (i.e. coins), gold and silver certificates and electronic currency (eLD). ALD certificates are "warehouse receipts" for real gold and silver owned by the bearer. According to court documents there were about 250,000 holders of Liberty Dollar certificates.[1] The metal was warehoused at Sunshine Minting in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, prior to a November 2007 raid by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Secret Service.[2] Until July 2009, the Liberty Dollar was distributed by Liberty Services (formerly known as "National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve and the Internal Revenue Code" (NORFED), based in Evansville, Indiana. It was created by Bernard von NotHaus, the co-founder of the Royal Hawaiian Mint Company.[3]
In May 2009, von NotHaus and others were charged with federal crimes in connection with the Liberty Dollar and, on July 31, 2009, von NotHaus announced that he had closed the Liberty Dollar operation, pending resolution of the criminal charges.[4] On March 18, 2011, von NotHaus was pronounced guilty of "making, possessing, and selling his own currency".

"Attorney for the Western District of North Carolina, Anne M. Tompkins, described the Liberty Dollar as "a unique form of domestic terrorism" that is trying "to undermine the legitimate currency of this country".[28]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Dollar

2) Method 2 (soft force): Killing off media of exchange competition via capital gains tax law:

Germany:

"After a parliamentary inquiry, Germany has clarified its position on Bitcoin. The federal ministry of finance recognized Bitcoins as “units of account” — the cryptocurrency is therefore be considered as “private money”. That’s why, according to Die Welt, the government stated that there wouldn’t be a tax exemption on commercial activities that use Bitcoins. In addition to paying capital gains tax, Bitcoin users should now pay sales tax (VAT) as well."

Capital gains tax in Germany: 25%

http://techcrunch.com/2013/08/19/germany-recognizes-bitcoin-as-private-money-sales-tax-coming-soon/

US:

"Did you know that almost everything you own and use for personal or investment purposes is a capital asset? Capital assets include a home, household furnishings and stocks and bonds held in a personal account. When a capital asset is sold, the difference between the amount you paid for the asset and the amount you sold it for is a capital gain or capital loss.
Here are ten facts from the IRS about gains and losses and how they can affect your Federal income tax return.

1) Almost everything you own and use for personal purposes, pleasure or investment is a capital asset.

2) When you sell a capital asset, the difference between the amount you sell it for and your basis – which is usually what you paid for it – is a capital gain or a capital loss.

3) You must report all capital gains. "

http://www.irs.gov/uac/Ten-Important-Facts-About-Capital-Gains-and-Losses

Although there are some offshore bank accounts that advertise as tax havens, U.S. law requires reporting of income from those accounts, and willful failure to do so constitutes tax evasion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax#United_States
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December 12, 2013, 09:58:31 PM
 #207


Pretty sure someone has corrected you on this point already, there is no single central world bank that regulates currency, as such all major governments would have to be on board to destroy the use of cryptos, in any case your proposition is baseless, there is no way for you to know governments are going to ban bitcoins.



"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."  Mayer Amschel Rothschild


"The Liberty Dollar (ALD) was a private currency produced in the United States. The currency was issued in minted metal rounds (i.e. coins), gold and silver certificates and electronic currency (eLD). ALD certificates are "warehouse receipts" for real gold and silver owned by the bearer. According to court documents there were about 250,000 holders of Liberty Dollar certificates.[1] The metal was warehoused at Sunshine Minting in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, prior to a November 2007 raid by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Secret Service.[2] Until July 2009, the Liberty Dollar was distributed by Liberty Services (formerly known as "National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve and the Internal Revenue Code" (NORFED), based in Evansville, Indiana. It was created by Bernard von NotHaus, the co-founder of the Royal Hawaiian Mint Company.[3]
In May 2009, von NotHaus and others were charged with federal crimes in connection with the Liberty Dollar and, on July 31, 2009, von NotHaus announced that he had closed the Liberty Dollar operation, pending resolution of the criminal charges.[4] On March 18, 2011, von NotHaus was pronounced guilty of "making, possessing, and selling his own currency".

"Attorney for the Western District of North Carolina, Anne M. Tompkins, described the Liberty Dollar as "a unique form of domestic terrorism" that is trying "to undermine the legitimate currency of this country".[28]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Dollar

The devil is in the details, bro:

A federal grand jury brought an indictment against von NotHaus and three others ...charged with one count of conspiracy to possess and sell coins in resemblance and similitude of coins of a denomination higher than five cents, and silver coins in resemblance of genuine coins of the United States in denominations of five dollars and greater, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 485, 18 U.S.C. § 486, and 18 U.S.C. § 371; one count of mail fraud in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1341 and 18 U.S.C. § 2; one count of selling, and possessing with intent to defraud, coins of resemblance and similitude of United States coins in denominations of five cents and higher, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 485 and 18 U.S.C. § 2; and one count of uttering, passing, and attempting to utter and pass, silver coins in resemblance of genuine U.S. coins in denominations of five dollars or greater, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 486 and 18 U.S.C. § 2.[24]

Bitcoins aren't actually coins (smh)
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December 12, 2013, 10:45:00 PM
 #208


The devil is in the details, bro:

A federal grand jury brought an indictment against von NotHaus and three others ...charged with one count of conspiracy to possess and sell coins in resemblance and similitude of coins of a denomination higher than five cents, and silver coins in resemblance of genuine coins of the United States in denominations of five dollars and greater, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 485, 18 U.S.C. § 486, and 18 U.S.C. § 371; one count of mail fraud in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1341 and 18 U.S.C. § 2; one count of selling, and possessing with intent to defraud, coins of resemblance and similitude of United States coins in denominations of five cents and higher, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 485 and 18 U.S.C. § 2; and one count of uttering, passing, and attempting to utter and pass, silver coins in resemblance of genuine U.S. coins in denominations of five dollars or greater, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 486 and 18 U.S.C. § 2.[24]

Bitcoins aren't actually coins (smh)

Its a showcase! Its not about counterfeiting; its about enforcing the dollar monopoly (""a unique form of domestic terrorism" that is trying "to undermine the legitimate currency of this country").
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December 12, 2013, 10:56:19 PM
 #209

This is very interesting to me. Im new to the whole bitcoin thing. Im looking at these posts and I see what you are saying.

Im reading both sides and really trying to comprehend which side has a leg up on the other in their forcasting of the future.

You are right, no one is debating that they have control of the money now. But just because wars have been fought, this doesnt mean that the players and rules wont change. They always have, as youve read your world history.

1
Before the internet they had a pretty good hold of the information that flowed in mass. Thats changed. Maybe someone with a server has been executed, but you didnt see it take down that information revolution. You can downplay it if you want, but we all know that the internet changed the world. Heck, if someone was explaining to me in 1990 what the internet would become, Id would have said the same thing you are now. But they are not about to start killing miners, so we can let that one go.

2
Medium of exchange
So these merchants arent going to want to do the paperwork on their extra profits, and the piece of those profits that go to the government? I say they will do the paperwork gladly if they make a SECOND profit just because they used bitcoin as the medium of exchange. They would rather keep the dollar and give away the profit from the bitcoin, because some of that profit is going to the government? That didnt make sense to me either. ??

3
Store of vaule
The problem will be the opposite? They may horde it BECAUSE they make extra money by dealing in bitcoins. So I think the store of vaule problem, the way youre explaining it isnt going to be it.

4
There are many concerns I think we all have about bitcoins. I just havent seen them brought up here except the point that bitcoin could fall to another crypto. That is possible I guess. The reason Im planing on buying bitcoins (I dont have any yet Im poor as of the moment- 1B7YJ965v5KfZpLs7PDWWeZVYYwMtgsDzE     lol )  Im going to invest in them because they are used like the dollars in your example. People use Bitcoin to buy cryptos rite now. That wont last forever, but neither will The Money Monopoly either. At the very least it must change sometime. Why not now? We got the Information from them and look what we have here. IDK They just sound a little closer to me than you. But Im the new guy.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=186785
Here is the link to my trust settings here on forum. This trust system is very unfair. I make good on every deal Ive ever made. I had many, many deals as you can see and I never scammed anyone. All it takes is a random account to give you negative trust and youre screwed. Tomatocage has never even talked to me ever but when the random acct hit me with negative trust, Tomatocage came right behind him and marked neg trust again so obviously he was the one who did it. You can look at Tomatocage trust and see how many of his compeditors at the currency exchange thread he labeled scammers. I never scammed anyone. My trust was green over 20 before this. I hope it never happens to you because the mods cant help you.
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December 13, 2013, 04:14:35 AM
Last edit: December 13, 2013, 05:33:58 AM by AnonyMint
 #210


That's an interesting point. But I can't get if your are talking about the price or the "adoption", i mean: a speculator "adopts" bitcoins iff he buys them once, it doesn't matter if he sells them after.  And that should be S shaped.

Also "hoarding function" should be S shaped, where hoarding means truly belive in long term prospects of bitcoin and do not sell  under a very high price.

We need a model of demand/supply, given this two S shaped extremes. Just thinking loudly.

Incorrect.

sorry, but if you are pointing there on a non constant regression line (like rpitelia's) this, i think, does not affect the overall s shaped quality of the curve... I'm a newbie here so i like to share thoughts. Very interesting matter, indeed.

Read again. That was not the point. Speculators need to move to the best investment as price of BTC peaks. Read that part.

This:

Lets look at it psychologically. When the BTC price stops rising because the capital that can and will be moved into Bitcoin has slowed (or peaked), then those who own $100,000 to $millions (which probably includes all those who own $10,000+ of BTC now) are going to want to deploy their capital productively. Unless Bitcoin is as widely accepted as the dollar, then they will find their opportunities to invest BTC in businesses without it being converted to dollars will be limited and it will prevent them from optimizing their investments.

So capital will leave BTC to the point that each person holds in BTC what is reasonable for the opportunities of medium-of-exchange that are available.
Since BTC price is rising so fast, we are looking at market cap saturation no latter than 2016 ($1m per BTC x 15m coins = $15 trillion) unless the general public is selling assets to buy Bitcoin, but more likely 2014 or 2015. That is not enough time to develop a wide enough medium-of-exchange ecosystem.

Also, Bitcoin has no utility (except perhaps as the government coin).

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December 13, 2013, 07:12:35 AM
 #211



Conclusion:

If I am wrong about these points government will come down hard on miners. They could make it illegal to mine bitcoins. Then bitcoin will lose all of its advantages compared to alternative cryptocurrencies. It will be a code like the rest of them.

I predict bitcoin to collapse in price.

EDIT: The price increasing shows bitcoin is used as a speculative vehicle. It does not demonstrate bitcoins viability as a store of value or medium of exchange.

How can you make it illegal to mine?

Governments can pass laws that make it illegal to mine bitcoins. Simple. They can raide miners houses if need be. They can threaten you with death penalities if you mine despite it being prohibited. Again its just another line of attack that is unnecessary as you already have two major lines of attack (with one already being law, ie capital gains) to make sure it wont become a major medium of exchange as I discussed in the OP.

Oh God so what should we do, i was going spend lot of money to purchase mining hardwares
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December 13, 2013, 08:57:19 PM
 #212


Pretty sure someone has corrected you on this point already, there is no single central world bank that regulates currency, as such all major governments would have to be on board to destroy the use of cryptos, in any case your proposition is baseless, there is no way for you to know governments are going to ban bitcoins.


I explained it in the OP! Governments protect their monopoly.


Somebody just clarified Chinas position regarding bitcoin:


Quote
"but essentially if bitcoin is not a currency in China and china as a state only recognizes one single currency which is the RMB. therefore all merchants, stores and services can only accept the RMB. since bitcoin is not a currency and not a recognized currency so it's actually a logical conclusion that china for now will not allow goods and services to be sold and paid for by bitcoin" Bobby Lee (CEO of BTC China)"
http://youtu.be/rBgQFzyg8pk?t=21m57s


Quote
Audience: Goods/services can not be sold in bitcoin. Im wondering if most investors in china are they expecting that to change?
Bobby Lee: So that’s not going to change anytime soon. The government has made it clear that goods/services can not be priced in btc and can not be sold and paid for in btc. So that’s the current stance. All companies under the china law will follow that.
http://youtu.be/rBgQFzyg8pk?t=43m37s


Quote
Audience: Can you clarify as whether all merchants are not allowed to accept btc or is it only for existing financial institutions?
Bobby Lee: it’s both. Financial institutions can’t touch it and goods/services are not allowed to be sold or priced in btc. Two different points and they both apply.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBgQFzyg8pk&feature=youtu.be&t=45m17s

that's an official statement from Bobby Lee of BTC China.  2 follow up questions from the audience answered by Bobby Lee.  This clarifies the future of btc in China's economy.

You are naive. More countries will follow suit.
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December 13, 2013, 09:36:59 PM
 #213

and those countries will suffer the consequences of their "Fiat inflation"


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December 14, 2013, 03:19:38 AM
 #214

Oh God so what should we do, i was going spend lot of money to purchase mining hardwares

Mine the anonymous coin. Click my name, click read my latest posts. Then study.

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December 14, 2013, 03:39:45 AM
 #215

Oh God so what should we do, i was going spend lot of money to purchase mining hardwares

Mine the anonymous coin. Click my name, click read my latest posts. Then study.

Mining the anonymous coin wont help.

Lets say this guy lives in the US and the US makes it illegal to mine in the future.

Now if he buys mining equipment and starts the mining process, he will consume energy.

Government officials can go to the energy supplier and check any house that has a high electricity bill.

They will knock on his door and take him into custody.

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December 14, 2013, 08:01:05 AM
 #216

Oh God so what should we do, i was going spend lot of money to purchase mining hardwares

Mine the anonymous coin. Click my name, click read my latest posts. Then study.

Mining the anonymous coin wont help.

Lets say this guy lives in the US and the US makes it illegal to mine in the future.

Now if he buys mining equipment and starts the mining process, he will consume energy.

Government officials can go to the energy supplier and check any house that has a high electricity bill.

They will knock on his door and take him into custody.

Microhydropower. Lowest cost energy you can buy. We will change the world. Research it.

Porc join us. Don't succumb to the socialist hell. Humans with a functioning brain stem, time to wake up while you still can.

P.S. You are correct about the Technocracy coming with Smart electric meters that track everything you do. Those who stay in the socialist hell are going to be controlled zombies.

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December 14, 2013, 09:07:00 AM
 #217

I want to end my contribution to this thread with this post

We can't trust you, can we ?

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December 14, 2013, 11:13:56 AM
 #218


Pretty sure someone has corrected you on this point already, there is no single central world bank that regulates currency, as such all major governments would have to be on board to destroy the use of cryptos, in any case your proposition is baseless, there is no way for you to know governments are going to ban bitcoins.


I explained it in the OP! Governments protect their monopoly.


Somebody just clarified Chinas position regarding bitcoin:


Quote
"but essentially if bitcoin is not a currency in China and china as a state only recognizes one single currency which is the RMB. therefore all merchants, stores and services can only accept the RMB. since bitcoin is not a currency and not a recognized currency so it's actually a logical conclusion that china for now will not allow goods and services to be sold and paid for by bitcoin" Bobby Lee (CEO of BTC China)"
http://youtu.be/rBgQFzyg8pk?t=21m57s


Quote
Audience: Goods/services can not be sold in bitcoin. Im wondering if most investors in china are they expecting that to change?
Bobby Lee: So that’s not going to change anytime soon. The government has made it clear that goods/services can not be priced in btc and can not be sold and paid for in btc. So that’s the current stance. All companies under the china law will follow that.
http://youtu.be/rBgQFzyg8pk?t=43m37s


Quote
Audience: Can you clarify as whether all merchants are not allowed to accept btc or is it only for existing financial institutions?
Bobby Lee: it’s both. Financial institutions can’t touch it and goods/services are not allowed to be sold or priced in btc. Two different points and they both apply.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBgQFzyg8pk&feature=youtu.be&t=45m17s

that's an official statement from Bobby Lee of BTC China.  2 follow up questions from the audience answered by Bobby Lee.  This clarifies the future of btc in China's economy.

You are naive. More countries will follow suit.

Yawn, great example, believe what you will, if you can provide a reasonable argument indicating bitcoin will collapse I will respond in kind, however you are just posting random tidbits of news that are neither new nor ground breaking, neither do you bother researching the other side of the argument; what governments support BTC ? what are their views ? Research both sides and then let me know.

p.s.

Porc join us. Don't succumb to the socialist hell. Humans with a functioning brain stem, time to wake up while you still can.

I loved this, lol
AnonyMint
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December 15, 2013, 07:18:21 AM
 #219

Somebody just clarified Chinas position regarding bitcoin:

I refuted that incorrect interpretation.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
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December 15, 2013, 12:50:34 PM
 #220

So gold is valuable because it's nice to look at. Well, that does sound reasonable and removes that pesky human subjectivity from the equation... You know what else is really pretty?

Tulips. Damn,  those blooms are just beautiful.
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