Why didn't you sell?

[JayB]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon 
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that 

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

[1715010279]

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[1715010279]

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[1715010279]

1715010279

[jaked]

Self control.

Reacting to any market move in an emotional manner is not very smart.
It's impossible to predict the movements, and it takes time to grasp the true meaning of any development.
On top of that, holding fiat or BTC in exchanges is very risky.

Sometimes the best action is just no action.

So, if calling holders names makes you feel good about yourself, be my guest.
I kept my coins and will probably keep them for a long future, until I feel Bitcoin's awareness level is saturated, and it has exhausted its growth potential.

[bitcoinminer]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon 
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that 

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200 each and you pay 120$ transaction fee, and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

Better yet.  You sell at 700, pay the $70 transaction fee = $7000
2 days later the price is $1200.  You end up with 5.833 (ignoring transaction fees because I'm lazy)
2 days later the price is $300 you sell for $1750 minus transaction fees of $17.50 = 1732.50
2 days later the price is $1000 you buy 1.732 coins

Over and over and over.

2 days later your spouse leaves you because you're addicted to gambling, AKA bitcoin.

Then you have half as many dollars because your spouse took half your shit.

[cr1776]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon  
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that  

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

Obviously if you can time the market then that works, but it has been demonstrated all over the world that market timing is a suckers bet, and no one can do it reliably, repeatedly.

[JayB]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon  
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that  

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

Obviously if you can time the market then that works, but it has been demonstrated all over the world that market timing is a suckers bet, and no one can do it reliably, repeatedly.

Who wouldn't have anticipated Bitcoin would go down in value after the Chinese government's announcement? give me a break.

I agree it's hard to catch the lowest value it would reach, that's why I said 700$ and it's when Bitcoin's price stabilized...but anyways if you sold at 1,200$ buying back at any price below 1,000$ would've made you money (or Bitcoins for this matter).

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon 
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that 

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200 each and you pay 120$ transaction fee, and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

Better yet.  You sell at 700, pay the $70 transaction fee = $7000
2 days later the price is $1200.  You end up with 5.833 (ignoring transaction fees because I'm lazy)
2 days later the price is $300 you sell for $1750 minus transaction fees of $17.50 = 1732.50
2 days later the price is $1000 you buy 1.732 coins

Over and over and over.

2 days later your spouse leaves you because you're addicted to gambling, AKA bitcoin.

Then you have half as many dollars because your spouse took half your shit.

Or maybe visit a doctor to cure your nonsense

[joburgtaxi]

this is very similar to what i posted 2 days ago https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=358584.0;topicseen

[JayB]

this is very similar to what i posted 2 days ago https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=358584.0;topicseen

So you agree with me? does my logic make sense to someone at least? :p

[cAPSLOCK]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon 
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that 

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

First of all, your tone is annoying. But that aside, you don't seem to have very much experience trading in markets. You actually are using  hindsight to spell out how much money you could have made if... Then you have the audacity to act like everyone should have the ability to do that. That's not how short term trading usually works. And people who are successful at short term trading don't buy at the top and sell at the bottom over and over until they have "millions of dollars". In fact people who try to trade the way you described lose their ass every time.

If your juvinille advice actually worked no one would be poor. No wait...  See the simplest logic proves you are a fool.

But jump on in fool.  Put your money where your mouth is.  You'll likely be putting a timy bit of it in my pocket in the end.

Thanks.

By the way.  If bitcoin makes anyone rich in the end the vast majority of them will get there by buying and holding.  But that is another topic.

[JayB]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon  
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that  

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

First of all, your tone is annoying. But that aside, you don't seem to have very much experience trading in markets. You actually are using  hindsight to spell out how much money you could have made if... Then you have the audacity to act like everyone should have the ability to do that. That's not how short term trading usually works. And people who are successful at short term trading don't buy at the top and sell at the bottom over and over until they have "millions of dollars". In fact people who try to trade the way you described lose their ass every time.

If your juvinille advice actually worked no one would be poor. No wait...  See the simplest logic proves you are a fool.

But jump on in fool.  Put your money where your mouth is.  You'll likely be putting a timy bit of it in my pocket in the end.

Thanks.

By the way.  If bitcoin makes anyone rich in the end the vast majority of them will get there by buying and holding.  But that is another topic.

You are talking about a strategy that has been used by hedge funds and that haven't worked.

I agree this strategy wouldn't work in a mature market like the stocks market because transaction fees are higher than the profit you could be making by doing it. But it has been proven that with sophisticated models this strategy could work if transaction fees don't exist (just trying to make the point that I have more experience in markets than you think). But all opportunities in a mature and efficient market cancel out with time... (I can even give you a small lesson about how arbitrage was much easier when the stock market was less mature and is now extremely hard if existent at all)

But then the Bitcoin market is not mature yet, far from it. Which means that volatility is so high, it's very easy for the value of a Bitcoin to go up and down by 50% as a reaction to news, which makes the profits you make offset the transaction fees. This is not true for mature markets as I said, and this is why this strategy cannot be done there...

But I wasn't actually debating on whether to use this strategy as a long term thing, I was debating about something else, but it seems you didn't get my point...

Capich?

[GigaCoin]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon  
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that  

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

What if this v common scenario plays out:

Sell at $1200 as per your plan
Buy back at $700 as per your plan
Price drops further to $300-$400
Now you're waiting another 1 year for price to recover so you can make a profit.

The above scenario happens so many times in Bitcoin to so many people it's not even funny, it's one of the main reasons ppl just buy low and hold.

[bitcoinminer]

But I wasn't actually debating on whether to use this strategy as a long term thing, I was debating about something else, but it seems you didn't get my point...

Capich?

[Arksun]

(More reasons are welcome)

I'm surprised you couldn't think of 3 of the most obvious reasons:

1) Some people genuinely believe in it becomming a true currency, so why not hold onto the currency of the future.
2) Some hold very little, or generated it from mining or just free/task websites so would rather wait for any potential greater return.
3) I think a lot of people saw this sudden very steep rise of the past couple weeks as nothing more than a bubble which was going to burst, irrespective of the longterm trend. And if you see it as a long term trend, you're not losing anything, sure you can make some short term extra gains by trying to predict a bubble bursting, selling just before the burst then buying back in at the low, but if you just hold and see long term potentially, you're not losing any value that you already had either.

Count me in for 2) and 3). I saw this as a sharp bubble, but still see Bitcoin as a long term uptrend, in other words, I'm not at all worried, even when it dropped to almost $500 I wasn't worried. Also my bitcoins were generated from task websites, I haven't spent a single penny of FIAT, I want to see what happens in the long term. I wont feel like I lost much if Bitcoin dies, and honestly don't see Bitcoin dying anytime soon.

[JayB]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon  
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that  

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

What if this v common scenario plays out:

Sell at $1200 as per your plan
Buy back at $700 as per your plan
Price drops further to $300-$400
Now you're waiting another 1 year for price to recover so you can make a profit.

The above scenario happens so many times in Bitcoin to so many people it's not even funny, it's one of the main reasons ppl just buy low and hold.

If the scenario you mentioned happens (which is quiet likely right? I agree) you'd then lose LESS money (or Bitcoins) than you would if you did nothing and kept your Bitcoins after the news came out. So either way you're better off.

You want me to do the math for you? (I'm assuming you're smart enough to figure it out)

[knight22]

Why should I trade my precious bitcoins for some funny paper money 

[Johnny Bitcoinseed]

How about

"Cause I didn't wanna"

Why didn't you sell your gold, silver, or your car?

Because I don't have any.

But for someone who has, it's either because there were no buyers, or the price drop (or difference) was perceived to be lower than transaction costs.

I don't get it - you think $700 is a ditch? LOL

[Desensitizer]

I think there is a fairly obvious and quite simple reason that you are missing. Not everyone follows Bitcoin news and the exchange rate as closely as you do. Some people check in only occasionally or sporadically and ended up missing out.
Even more importantly, some individuals simply decided when they purchased their bitcoins to buy and hold, a very common investment strategy. Not everyone wants to be a daytrader.

[JayB]

I think there is a fairly obvious and quite simple reason that you are missing. Not everyone follows Bitcoin news and the exchange rate as closely as you do. Some people check in only occasionally or sporadically and ended up missing out.
Even more importantly, some individuals simply decided when they purchased their bitcoins to buy and hold, a very common investment strategy. Not everyone wants to be a daytrader.

No I'm not missing anything, in fact those two reasons, are included in the 4 reasons I mentioned...

I just think an opportunity is being missed here.....

[joburgtaxi]

this is very similar to what i posted 2 days ago https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=358584.0;topicseen

So you agree with me? does my logic make sense to someone at least? :p

As per my post linked above, logically it does make sense. I can say that I managed to actually execute the plan that is being described here and come out with more BTC after the crash BUT !!!!!! I can tell you this it was a very hair raising experience anticipating the right moments to buy and sell and agree that this method may work sometimes but repeated over and over could get you into trouble.

Timing is EVERYTHING and VERY easily missed and these transactions of Buy/Sell take time to execute and in the mean time the market is marching on..


That my 2 cents worth 

[JayB]

this is very similar to what i posted 2 days ago https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=358584.0;topicseen

So you agree with me? does my logic make sense to someone at least? :p

As per my post linked above, logically it does make sense. I can say that I managed to actually execute the plan that is being described here and come out with more BTC after the crash BUT !!!!!! I can tell you this it was a very hair raising experience anticipating the right moments to buy and sell and agree that this method may work sometimes but repeated over and over could get you into trouble.

Timing is EVERYTHING and VERY easily missed and these transactions of Buy/Sell take time to execute and in the mean time the market is marching on..


That my 2 cents worth  

I agree! Thank you for your positive contribution to this thread

The reasons why you can't sell on the spot is because volumes are not big enough yet for this market, and this was one question I had that I needed an answer for, so thanks for making it clearer to me...Cheers

[leoragraves666]

Simply can't bother. Waiting for more serious amounts.