THE CRASH OF THE BITCOIN BUBBLE HAS BEGUN! SEE CHART.

[Lone Wolf]

This is my first post on this forum, but I've been warning people on other sites and Twitter that at this time BTC is in a bubble, but no one wanted to listen.  I was attacked ferociously for my short term bearish view.  That is one of the SUREST signs that a bubble is about to pop.  The "true believers" attack any opposing view as ridiculous.

Look at this chart showing the stages of a bubble.  Bitcoin believers defending this drop as no big deal, buying opportunity, from weak hands to strong hands etc. etc.  THIS IS THE DENIAL STAGE.  Long way to go before believers hit DESPONDENCY.

https://twitter.com/YachtsOnTheReg/status/409383193796550656/photo/1

[raspcoin]

I assume you are another person who panic sold at $500. Get over it.

[Lone Wolf]

You assume wrong.  I have never owned one CENT of btc.  I am NOT short and I don't plan on ever shorting btc.

And btw it hasn't hit $500...yet.  The low was on Mt. Gox was $576.

[raspcoin]

You assume wrong.  I have never owned one CENT of btc.  I am NOT short and I don't plan on ever shorting btc.

And btw it hasn't hit $500...yet.  The low was on Mt. Gox was $576.

Things that fluctuate as much as 50% daily do not have that many significant digits. As for your commitment, put your money where your mouth is. For your information, you will be disappointed if you think threads like this can affect the price.

[Lone Wolf]

There is ZERO chance that my posts will influence the price.  I am not delusional.  I am just someone who has experienced first hand the implosion of the dot com bubble and the real estate/credit bubble.  I just call 'em as I see 'em.

Just trying to tell people that "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

As for putting my money where my mouth is, anything that moves 50% in 1 day, in either direction, is untradeable.  I know that so why would I short btc?  No thanks.  I'll let idiots try that.

[eddiedude]

Exactly^ the price fluctuates so much every single day. Your whole chart on what you think is happening is horrible. It dis the same thing around the 20th of November and came right back up..

[Lone Wolf]

My chart is not horrible because it is just a reflection of every single bubble that has popped in human history.  Tulip, South Sea bubble, U.S. railroad bubbles in the 1800's, stock market bubble of 1920's, dot com bubble, real estate/credit bubble.  

The emotions on the chart were repeated in every single one of those bubbles.  Its just a chart showing the stages of emotion, not a prediction.

Again, I am getting attacked by the true believers in btc that my warnings and charts are worthless, horrible, stupid, laughable etc. etc.  That is the denial/anger stage.  Just watch it will play out like it always does.

As for what happened Nov. 20th, its not the same b/c after Nov. 20 btc went on to new highs / higher than the Nov. 19 high.  The diff this time is that btc is making low highs and lower lows.  That means the trend for now is down until btc can reverse the downtrend and start making higher lows and higher highs again.

[Jaguar0625]

I think the real question is where the bottom is? I don't think we've reached it yet, but I'm not sure if the price will go to what it was before the China run-up.

[raspcoin]

My chart is not horrible because it is just a reflection of every single bubble that has popped in human history.  Tulip, South Sea bubble, U.S. railroad bubbles in the 1800's, stock market bubble of 1920's, dot com bubble, real estate/credit bubble.  

The emotions on the chart were repeated in every single one of those bubbles.  Its just a chart showing the stages of emotion, not a prediction.

Again, I am getting attacked by the true believers in btc that my warnings and charts are worthless, horrible, stupid, laughable etc. etc.  That is the denial/anger stage.  Just watch it will play out like it always does.

As for what happened Nov. 20th, its not the same b/c after Nov. 20 btc went on to new highs / higher than the Nov. 19 high.  The diff this time is that btc is making low highs and lower lows.  That means the trend for now is down until btc can stop the downtrend and making higher lows and higher highs again.

I appreciate that you try to educate us, but you will not convince anyone if you do not put your money where your mouth is. What about taking a bet on whether BTC will reach $500 or $900 first on any major exchange?

[Mike Christ]

Wonderful!  We'll finally return to the norm.

[Lone Wolf]

I think the real question is where the bottom is? I don't think we've reached it yet, but I'm not sure if the price will go to what it was before the China run-up.

No one can predict the exact bottom.  I won't even try.  But as with all bubbles that implode, they usually return to the flat part of the chart before the parabolic rise began.  Look at this chart of the nasdaq bubble as an example.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^IXIC#symbol=^ixic;range=19950103,20020903;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

So looking at the btc chart, the parabolic rise started around $150-$200

[Lone Wolf]

I appreciate that you try to educate us, but you will not convince anyone if you do not put your money where your mouth is. What about taking a bet on whether BTC will reach $500 or $900 first on any major exchange?

I'm not trying to "convince" anyone of anything.  As someone who has experienced 2 bubbles firsthand (I worked at a dot com in San Francisco from 1998-2000 until it went bust, and I owned a condo in San Diego from 2004-2006, luckily I sold it bef the market crashed), I am just pointing out that its never diff this time.  All speculative bubbles play out the same.

As I said in another reply, I have no idea where the bottom will be and I won't even try to make a prediction.  I learned that the hard way while trading stocks.

Besides, the costs and fees of shorting btc are ridiculous.  Its not like stocks where you just borrow and short so easily.

Also, I read all these posts of how ppl can't get their btc's or money out of exchanges or websites etc.  Way too risky to trust my money with any of those sites, long or short.

[Energizer]

It is a very normal behavior by now that BTC would drop 30% to 50% at least once every 4 months as much as it has became a normal behavior to raise double or triple every 3 to 4 months.

[Aahzman]

Lone Wolf, if you have no "skin in the game" (as the sayin goes), why do you think your opinion about BTC matters? You think because you worked at a .com and owned a condo that you're some kind of authority on "bubbles"?

If you ain't willing to play the game, don't waste people's time trying to call it.

[raspcoin]

I appreciate that you try to educate us, but you will not convince anyone if you do not put your money where your mouth is. What about taking a bet on whether BTC will reach $500 or $900 first on any major exchange?

I'm not trying to "convince" anyone of anything.  As someone who has experienced 2 bubbles firsthand (I worked at a dot com in San Francisco from 1998-2000 until it went bust, and I owned a condo in San Diego from 2004-2006, luckily I sold it bef the market crashed), I am just pointing out that its never diff this time.  All speculative bubbles play out the same.

As I said in another reply, I have no idea where the bottom will be and I won't even try to make a prediction.  I learned that the hard way while trading stocks.

Besides, the costs and fees of shorting btc are ridiculous.  Its not like stocks where you just borrow and short so easily.

Also, I read all these posts of how ppl can't get their btc's or money out of exchanges or websites etc.  Way to risky to trust my money with any of those sites, long or short.

You have an idea, but are not willing to take the risk to invest in it. What does that say about the idea? Did you correctly predict that the April bubble would be followed by a steady growth to the same level and beyond?

[Lone Wolf]

The idea that all speculative bubbles implode is not "my idea".  I don't claim to be that smart.  After getting burned in the .com bubble I read books like

A Short History of Financial Euphoria

Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds Financial Panics and Manias

and History of Greed: Financial Fraud from Tulip Mania to Bernie Madoff

FYI, I did not predict the April bubble b/c I was not watching btc back then.  I started watching it in early Nov. when they started talking about it every hour on CNBC.  That's when I knew that bubble was forming.  I call it the CNBC indicator.  And like I said, I don't make specific price predictions whether going up or down.  No one can call the exact top or bottom.

And I refuse to go long or short now b/c I don't trust these btc exchanges or sites.  I see so many posts about ppl having a hard time getting their dollars or btc's out of sites like Mt. Gox or other shady sites. 

Btc is too speculative and volatile for me to invest at the moment in time.  I also won't go short b/c when you short something your potential loss is infinity, whereas if you go long you can only lose what you put in.  I stopped trying to short things a long time ago.  You make a lot more money long vs short and its a helluva lot less stressful.

[Lone Wolf]

Lone Wolf, if you have no "skin in the game" (as the sayin goes), why do you think your opinion about BTC matters? You think because you worked at a .com and owned a condo that you're some kind of authority on "bubbles"?

If you ain't willing to play the game, don't waste people's time trying to call it.

I never said in any of my posts that I was an "authority" on bubbles.  And I never said my opinion on btc matters.  If everyone ignores my posts then its no skin off my back (as the sayin goes).

I haven't called anything.  I don't make price predictions on btc, stocks, real estate prices etc.  That is above my pay grade.  And investing or trading your hard earned money is not a "game".  I don't take things like that lightly.

[heisenbit]

What about the "real" currency bubble? Are you not as concerned with the Federal Reserve issuing debt that will not be (cannot possibly be) paid? I would rather invest in BTC now before that one bubble pops, which in my opinion, will.

Do what you will with your hard-earned paper, and let others invest in what they may.

[Lone Wolf]

What about the "real" currency bubble? Are you not as concerned with the Federal Reserve issuing debt that will not be (cannot possibly be) paid? I would rather invest in BTC now before that one bubble pops, which in my opinion, will.

Do what you will with your hard-earned paper, and let others invest in what they may.

For the 20th time, I'm not trying to tell others to buy or sell, I'm not predicting prices, I'm not trying to convince anyone, scare anyone or influence anyone's decisions.  I am simply putting the info out there that every speculative bubble in human history has ended the same.  People can take it or leave it.

As far as what I think of the Fed and U.S. gov't debt, that is a whole nother can of worms that I have no interest in getting into.  Its way too long of a topic and off topic for this forum as far as I'm concerned.

[heisenbit]

What about the "real" currency bubble? Are you not as concerned with the Federal Reserve issuing debt that will not be (cannot possibly be) paid? I would rather invest in BTC now before that one bubble pops, which in my opinion, will.

Do what you will with your hard-earned paper, and let others invest in what they may.

For the 20th time, I'm not trying to tell others to buy or sell, I'm not predicting prices, I'm not trying to convince anyone, scare anyone or influence anyone's decisions.  I am simply putting the info out there that every speculative bubble in human history has ended the same.  People can take it or leave it.

As far as what I think of the Fed and U.S. gov't debt, that is a whole nother can of worms that I have no interest in getting into.  Its way too long of a topic and off topic for this forum as far as I'm concerned.

Point taken. There are many independent factors that could abruptly change the btc market any given day, so it is a risky investment for sure, but it has come a long way in just a few years, and that makes it very interesting to follow.