How improbable is it? According to US statistics (taken from here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Demographic_statistics), there are 245,267,292 people above the age of 15. In 2006, there were 21.7 billion credit card transactions in the US. If bitcoin replaced credit card usage but stayed at the same frequency, that would equate to roughly 2
31 new addresses created every year, since the bitcoin client creates a new address each time.
Hm...maybe not as big of a deal as I initially thought. In order to run out of addresses, which I think I read have a maximum of 2
160, at the 2
31 rate of creation, it would take 6.8 x 10
38 680 undecillion (thanks, wolfram alpha) years to run out of addresses. If we assume that the world consists of more than the US, and double the number of transactions, it would still only be 2
32 and not make any real difference. If we assume that everybody on earth does the same amount of transactions as Americans, that would result in 667.5 billion credit card transactions each year. This would mean it would take 2.189 × 10
36 years to deplete the available bitcoin addresses. Even if the amount of yearly transactions increased by a factor of 12, it would still take 1.824 x 10
35 years to use every available address.
Incredibly improbable that somebody will run into somebody else's address, even after 10,000 years. Probably just about as improbable as Mr. Lucky in that other thread finding all the remaining blocks.