If I Was a Whale (or Do Guardian Whales Exist?)

[Peter R]

If I Was a Whale (or Do Guardian Whales Exist?)


"To keep your coins, you must lose your coins"--Zangelbert Bingledack


There's been a lot of anger directed towards "manipulative whales" with the recent sharp drop in price.  I understand the pain: the value of my bitcoins has declined when measured against fiat too.  But what if this isn't a manipulation attempt to gain wealth, but instead a manipulation attempt to lose wealth.

Imagine for a moment that you are a whale.  I don't mean a 100 - 1000 BTC dolphin, I mean a holly-mother-of-god 40,000 BTC great whale.  You've already raked enough of your gains to purchase a nice house, cars, and a diversified portfolio of precious metals, real estate, etc that should allow you to live comfortably for the rest of your life.  But you still have 40,000 bitcoins!  You've held fairly tight through all the ups and downs so far, because you believe that bitcoin is a great advance for humanity.  What would you do now?

You would be committed to making bitcoin succeed!

To make this happen, you want to spread bitcoin wealth to a wider array of people who value it.  But you can't just give them away--gifts aren't respected.  You need to make people earn them; you must transfer coins to strong hands that value them.  So, every once and a while, when the time is just right, you market sell 1000s of coins over and over, and then market buy, and continue till everyone is exhausted.  You are actually *trying* to lose wealth.  You chose your strategy such that it *must* transfer wealth from yourself and other panic sellers to those that confidently place strong and sensible bid walls and ask walls. Your strategy rewards those who act to *stabilize* the market and punishes those who do the opposite.  In effect, you are training market participants to have trust in this innovative new peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

I'm not saying this is actually happening--but it recently hit me that any remaining great whales are probably more concerned with maintaining the viability of bitcoin than "cashing out."
 

[lucas.sev]

Oh my god what a load of bullshit

[Peter R]

Oh my god what a load of bullshit

This is the speculation sub-forum, lucas.  What I wrote certainly may not be true, and I acknowledge that in the original post.  But I don't see how this is bullshit.  Do you think the great whales of bitcoin want to harm it instead?  Perhaps they wouldn't do what I describe, but you must agree that they would act to *support the bitcoin system* because their fates are intertwined.

[Ibian]

Sure, why not? Any case, if the market can't handle these bumps then bitcoin will never succeed. It's a good thing on the whole.

[lucas.sev]

Oh my god what a load of bullshit

This is the speculation sub-forum, lucas.  What I wrote certainly may not be true, and I acknowledge that in the original post.  But I don't see how this is bullshit.  Do you think the great whales of bitcoin want to harm it instead?  Perhaps they wouldn't do what I describe, but you must agree that they would act to *support the bitcoin system* because their fates are intertwined.

I think, in line with Speculation sub-forum, that bitcoin is a game to make money. People with a lot of many have a lot of money precisely because they do not stop at some number and always work to get more. A whale with 40k BTC exposure to bitcoin markets movements will do everything to protect their investment.

[beaconpcguru]

Or perhaps said whale would still be greedy and unload several shots of 5,000 bitcoins a pop, spread fear and buy back twice as much with half the cash.  But to your question, yes I believe both exist, those that manipulate for cash and those that manipulate for BTC

[spiderbrain]

I like this image of a giant whale in the sky looking after everyone I think it's more likely that they would be selling when it gets too high and buying when it gets too low to stablise, rather than increasing volitility, though.

bitcoin is a game to make money. People with a lot of many have a lot of money precisely because they do not stop at some number and always work to get more. A whale with 40k BTC exposure to bitcoin markets movements will do everything to protect their investment.

that's definitely true for the conventional super rich, but a lot of early adopters of bitcoin got involved mainly because they objected to that system, especially the global banking system. They're politically motivated. Also, if you look at people like Soros and even (gasp) Bill Gates, once they get rich enough, making more money stops being such a priority, it's more about how they can affect the world. In this case, it would be the world of bitcoin, and the freedom from banks and governments it offers, if it's ever stable enough to become widely adopted.

[Peter R]

Oh my god what a load of bullshit

This is the speculation sub-forum, lucas.  What I wrote certainly may not be true, and I acknowledge that in the original post.  But I don't see how this is bullshit.  Do you think the great whales of bitcoin want to harm it instead?  Perhaps they wouldn't do what I describe, but you must agree that they would act to *support the bitcoin system* because their fates are intertwined.

I think, in line with Speculation sub-forum, that bitcoin is a game to make money. People with a lot of many have a lot of money precisely because they do not stop at some number and always work to get more. A whale with 40k BTC exposure to bitcoin markets movements will do everything to protect their investment.

Fair enough lucas.  But if the goal is to make money, then would you rather be a whale with 40,000 BTC at $1000 / BTC or a whale with 20,000 BTC at $10,000 / BTC?  Could not making money actually involve losing coins?  And thus the quote from Zangelbert:

To keep your coins, you must lose your coins.

[Ibian]

[Peter R]

I think it's more likely that they would be selling when it gets too high and buying when it gets too low to stablise, rather than increasing volitility, though.

Agree with selling when it gets too high, but I actually think volatility helps us shake loose our mindset of thinking in terms of $ and start thinking in terms of BTC instead.

I also liked your comment about certain great whales being less concerned with just "making money."  I think at a certain point people are more concerned with shaping the world, hoping to make it a better place, and leaving a legacy that will be remembered fondly in history books. 

[traderCJ]

That's one approach.  However, it would probably just be easier for the whale to slowly convert a portion BTC to fiat and use it to fill panic sell orders.  If the whale were successful over the course of years to stabilize the price against panics, arguably it would increase confidence in BTC and perhaps, in fiat terms, make his diminshed pile of BTC just as valuable as the original pile.

Realistically, I think that large institutional investors are the only way to safeguard the price against chickens and daytraders.  This will take time.

[Elwar]

People do not make enough money and then stop. That is not how life works.

[Peter R]

People do not make enough money and then stop. That is not how life works.

I'm not suggesting they stop.  I'm saying it's like a reverse tragedy of the commons effect: a fortune of the commons. 

To keep your coins, you must lose your coins.

[Loaded]

I eat smaller whales.

[TERA]

[Edward50]

IF you were greedy enough to still have 40,000 bitcoins, your surely not going to give them away.

[BitchicksHusband]

People do not make enough money and then stop. That is not how life works.

See: Warren Buffet.

[Peter R]

IF you were greedy enough to still have 40,000 bitcoins, your surely not going to give them away.

Why would still having 40,000 bitcoins suggest you were greedy?  Would not the greedy people cash out after the first doubling, or in fear after the first crash?  It seems to me that anyone that has held their coins this long is motivated by more than greed. 

[melacs]

It is a speculation, however...
Certainly using the bitcoins to buy things would be a better way to expand bitcoin and have it succeed. Of course most businesses cash out the bitcoins used causing the market to drop. (The current price doesn't really matter if you're in it to let it become widespread)
As we see with a lot of 'whales' that want bitcoin to succeed: they use their bitcoin to start new bitcoin-based businesses.
Cashing out on exchanges to keep the things going isn't a very good strategy. Unless you want to reward greedy traders.

[oakpacific]

Fact of life: for those who can't make proper use of money, even if you give them your money for free, they'll still eventually lose it to others who can make better use of it.