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Author Topic: Things to consider  (Read 791 times)
zby
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August 11, 2011, 07:33:28 AM
 #1

Maybe I am losing market edge by posting this - but I was a lousy day trader anyway so before pulling completely from this market maybe I'll try a non-standard strategy and disclose all of my analysis and discuss the points.

The conference next week can be a big event, I am sure that it will generate a lot of enthusiasm among the participants who will finally not feel so alone and that with all the media attention it can reverse the trend.  The risk is that  if the price does not go up after the recent drops all the media will take home from the event is that bitcoin bubble continues to deflate.

So it all depends on the next few days - but it does not look too good:

- google trends are down again http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
- so is alexa rating of bitcoin.org: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/bitcoin.org
- the August stats of new members of this forum are not too optimistic either
- all the recent rallies are consistent with the theory that they are caused by investors who sold higher but kept the money at mtgox (because they could not withdraw it) and that the money in the system does not increase and thus the inflation of new bitcoins being mined constantly takes over
- the big players continue to milk mtgox by building bid walls and tearing them down at the moment they choose and using bots making it much harder for small investors like me
- the stocks collapse causes investors to seek safe heavens not more risky investments
- the poll at the 'technical analysis' thread first time has more 'down' then 'up' votes
- the 'time series' thread predicts lower prices (even if the analysis is just noise this might be self-fulfilling prophecy)

On the other hand the weekend dip is not very probable - because too many people are waiting for one.

In the long term it all depends on bitcoin spreading out of the geek ghetto - if it does the value of bitcoin can go sky-high, but if it falls short term - then there will still be time to buy back the coins and the nearest months look rather dark.

The software is clunky, the exchanges risky, nobody accepts bitcoin payments (as illustrated by the fact that one restaurant accepting bitcoins is discussion subject at this global forum) and bitcoin attracts all kind of crooks who predate on normal bitcoin users.  Maybe exchanges have some chances to improve in the next months, against the current standard this is not too hard (just make a backup of your wallet.dat), but exchanges are the easy part - they already make money.

There are other problems:

- the bitcoin system is using a lot of resources to run, just the electricity bill is about $500K per month by some estimates, this is very much for any startup and it probably needs to grow together with the value stored in bitcoins - how many transactions would need to be done in bitcoins to make the system as a whole profitable?

- waiting an hour for confirmations makes bitcoin unsuitable for non-online commerce (and most importantly for mobile-commerce)

- competition
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August 11, 2011, 07:48:40 AM
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(kills self)
piramida
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August 11, 2011, 08:06:44 AM
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Advice from an unsuccessful trader who pulls out probably after losing much? Just what everybody needed! Smiley

Have you considered that your bad trading and consecutive desire to pull out may be caused by a simple fact that your sentiment was in the wrong direction?

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August 11, 2011, 08:31:27 AM
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I don't mean to derail the thread, but could somebody explain Bid walls too me.  I know what they look like, and I know the amount of bids effects the spread.  How exactly does it effect buyers and sellers

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zby
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August 11, 2011, 08:45:26 AM
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Have you considered that your bad trading and consecutive desire to pull out may be caused by a simple fact that your sentiment was in the wrong direction?
Exactly - that is why I wanted to discuss it.  What in particular you don't agree with - where am I making the mistake?  I did not post this as an advice - but to discuss it.  Just to counter your condescending tone - I need to add that overall I was very (insanely if compared with normal stocks investments) successful on bitcoins -  but that was mostly because I saw the potential early and that I sold still quite high, it was my daily or weekly moves that were not that successful.
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August 11, 2011, 09:18:56 AM
 #6

'Rome wasn't built in a day' and Im sure a few workers had bricks fall on their heads during its construction.

All I will say is in life a lot of things work out for the better if you think they will. If you think they won't then they won't (at least not for you).

My suggestion is rather than dwelling on the negative aspects of Bitcoin spend a bit of time in some of the other forums looking at what is in development. Nothing in life is perfect.


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Cluster2k
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August 11, 2011, 12:46:44 PM
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Advice from an unsuccessful trader who pulls out probably after losing much? Just what everybody needed! Smiley

Have you considered that your bad trading and consecutive desire to pull out may be caused by a simple fact that your sentiment was in the wrong direction?

This forum is liberally populated with perma-bulls who only see the upside in bitcoins.  It's refreshing to hear the opinions of someone who wasn't successful.  The value of bitcoins is still ~66% off its highs.

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August 11, 2011, 05:44:34 PM
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The convention will have some impact but not this week. I somewhat agree with your sentiment that a lot of people will hold on for the weekend crash since most people missed it last weekend. But that does mean that a lot of people will be taking money out before the weekend in anticipation, thus perpetuating it. It will just climb back up a lot quicker at the first sign of a price decline.

Bitcoin is still good in the long term. No matter what happens, half of the businesses pack up and go home, exchanges burn to the ground, etc...it will still survive and be of some use for somebody and is open to the free market and the ideas of people who have not yet heard of Bitcoin.

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