Why are you all so worried ?

[JerryCurlzzz]

BTC could go to $0, not going to bet the farm at $900 per....

[1715288329]

1715288329

[1715288329]

1715288329

[Hfertig]

Well, it's not like this is a pyramid scheme.  It can have some value for people to have btc, especially, at this point, ones who want to do illegal things.  For instance if there is demand then the price could climb very high, it's like the stock market where it "creates" wealth. But this is only if btc continues to have use and hopefully it becomes more mainstream and people cna use it for things.  At some point it has to become less volatile for this to happen though.  Who know what price that will be?

It certainly is a pyramid scheme, a very intelligent one which can be used as a transaction gateway as well. Stocks are a complete different thing. Stocks create wealth as the company is offering goods or service for a profit, which is then shared between investors via dividends. Sorry, no dividends or wealth creation by bitcoin itself. Only by new people buying your coin for a higher price than you did.

This can go for very long, but at some stage there is just not enough money entering and the price will stop climbing. No one will hold Bitcoin for a prolonged time if it is not performing anymore. Suddenly other investments will become more appealing and people will sell their coins.

At the very end, only 10% will gain and the rest will lose. I wish I had a crystal ball to see at which price this is going to happen.

Still, this will not change the usefulness of bitcoin. But people will not hold it. Criminals or whoever will buy one if they need one for spending, but would not hold them.

[Hfertig]

Thank you so much for this advice, I'm feeling generous too so you can join in this guaranteed profit. I'll invest 10k right now and give you 50% of all my profits, if we can make a contract that you will pay any losses if they occur.

The losses part is just a legal thing, it doesn't matter. It's guaranteed, right?

Common guys, stop being so greedy. Due to low interest rates zerobonds are very expensive these days to use for a CPN. Not much left for the Option premium. The Option is very expensive as well, due to Bitcoin volatitily, hence, only offering 50% of the profits is cheating. 

[piramida]

Still, this will not change the usefulness of bitcoin. But people will not hold it. Criminals or whoever will buy one if they need one for spending, but would not hold them.

Right, and they would not hold it why again? Missed that in your post. Because there is a limited amount and people don't like holding any rare items? Or because continuous inflation of fiat currencies would naturally increase the price of every bitcoin by 5-10% yearly? Or simply because who would want to keep a stable transportable and liquid asset that can't be diluted or taken away from you? Or what other reason would suddenly make bitcoin a bad holding asset, lack of 1000% yearly percent returns? We in the unicorn land are known to never hold anything that does not give out 1000% yields, I forgot, thanks for reminding!

[GigaCoin]

Guarantee doesn't have to be in a literal sense, i'm fairly certain most of you understood that but some decided to have some fun  

Yes it is Guaranteed, in terms of fundamentals. For example if someone told you that there is a small town that lacks a decent supply of food, and there is an opportunity for you to open a food store without competition selling food items heck yeah i'm throwing some money there as an investment as returns will be guaranteed (in the fundamental sense). People need to eat food and they'll come to you that's the basic and most powerful fundamental of that investment. How you manage that investment is another story (for example not securing a good supply chain etc)

And for those of you (many it seems) calling for a $0-$100 Bitcoin, i mean really? Think again, If Bitcoin crashes back to $0-$100 it'll be one of the shortest lived technology innovations in history, and that also means Bitcoin is a piece of garbage with no fundamentals, no innovation, no vision and this whole thing was a short lived tulip-mania.

And btw, the 100% in 1 year i mentioned is not too far fetched, it puts you in the range of $1200-$1600 (depends when you bought at the recent dip)

[Hfertig]

Still, this will not change the usefulness of bitcoin. But people will not hold it. Criminals or whoever will buy one if they need one for spending, but would not hold them.

Right, and they would not hold it why again? Missed that in your post. Because there is a limited amount and people don't like holding any rare items? Or because continuous inflation of fiat currencies would naturally increase the price of every bitcoin by 5-10% yearly? Or simply because who would want to keep a stable transportable and liquid asset that can't be diluted or taken away from you? Or what other reason would suddenly make bitcoin a bad holding asset, lack of 1000% yearly percent returns? We in the unicorn land are known to never hold anything that does not give out 1000% yields, I forgot, thanks for reminding!

You are right, there is only a limited amount and it could be a rare item in the future. But what if no one wants this rare item in the future, because it cannot be used. Altcoins are offering a similar "rareness" and at some stage one coin may come and fix all the glitches and issues bitcoin has.

As you mention inflation, did you know that Bitcoin is currently inflating with 15% per anno ? and will drop to 10% in 2017. It will be nearing western inflation rates in about 2021. Lots of things can happen till then.

Don´t get me wrong. I am interested to see bitcoin to succeed as well. But the recent rally does harm the future prospects of Bitcoin. High volatility is a killer, as it will defunct Bitcoins ability to act as a store of value and transaction gateway.

I would have preferred a stable price at around 150-200 or a much slower increase over the years. Greed has made people panic buying into coins at whatever price.

Reading the forums, I have seen a lot of people not getting a lot of sleep, because they are fearing to lose on the upside or downside. Is that what Bitcoin is about ?

[Hfertig]

Guarantee doesn't have to be in a literal sense, i'm fairly certain most of you understood that but some decided to have some fun  

Yes it is Guaranteed, in terms of fundamentals. For example if someone told you that there is a small town that lacks a decent supply of food, and there is an opportunity for you to open a food store without competition selling food items heck yeah i'm throwing some money there as an investment as returns will be guaranteed (in the fundamental sense). People need to eat food and they'll come to you that's the basic and most powerful fundamental of that investment. How you manage that investment is another story (for example not securing a good supply chain etc)

And for those of you (many it seems) calling for a $0-$100 Bitcoin, i mean really? Think again, If Bitcoin crashes back to $0-$100 it'll be one of the shortest lived technology innovations in history, and that also means Bitcoin is a piece of garbage with no fundamentals, no innovation, no vision and this whole thing was a short lived tulip-mania.

And btw, the 100% in 1 year i mentioned is not too far fetched, it puts you in the range of $1200-$1600 (depends when you bought at the recent dip)

The fundamentals might be ok. (what about China ?) But we have seen a rise from USD 10 to USD 1000 within a year. I´d say all good news for the next 5 years are already priced in.

I do well remember when I bought my first bitcoins in 2011 for USD 20 and suddenly they were only worth USD 2. I bought more at USD 5 and was shitting my pants. I would not consider that going back to double digits short lived. I mean going back to 45 would still be a 300% profit comparing January this year. I´d say a very good return....

We all do not know what is going to happen, but looking at the charts, the news, the competition and the technology itself, there are currently more downside risks than upside risks.

To many people have jumped the train to become rich, not because they believe in Bitcoin. I have seen it twice already, it goes quick, quicker than everyone would expect, and suddenly your 300% profit is at a 50% loss.

EDIT: and sorry if you thought I was making fun of you. I might have a bit, but at some stage I was hoping you might be going for it. It would have been a great trade for me. Looking at how crazy some people here are, I would have not been surprised if you would have taken the offer....

 

[nazgulnarsil]

it is currently around 13% inflation and will drop to under 5% in 2017

[Hfertig]

it is currently around 13% inflation and will drop to under 5% in 2017

Looked at it again, and yes, you are right, it is currently at around 13% and not 15%... Thanks for pointing this out.

[Carlton Banks]

it is currently around 13% inflation and will drop to under 5% in 2017

Looked at it again, and yes, you are right, it is currently at around 13% and not 15%... Thanks for pointing this out.

Sorry to be a smart-ass, but it's closer to 11%. We're not at block 210,000, we're at block ~274,000. Percentage is a proportional measurement, after all.

[Hfertig]

I was just looking at this thread. I guess your number could be more accurate

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

[byronbb]

How I stopped worrying and loved the swongs, new movie coming out I hear.

[Luckybit]

I noticed people are too nervous to buy in, volatile markets can cause widespread fear which the smart money use to capitalize on. Look at it this way, if Bitcoin can achieve $1250 in such an EARLY stage you really think this is the end ? This is just the start people and the fact Bitcoin is valued so highly is because there is really nothing left in this world to invest in, every other assets class is either too confusing, too overvalued or too manipulated. $10,000 is easily achievable in the next 2 years at this rate.

Whatever price you buy in at right now you are guaranteed a minimum of 100% Return within 1 year (v conservative estimate), what other investment provides you the same returns ? None !

Bitcoin is still EARLY stages, Think about it guys just look at other assets/stocks like gold, oil, real estate, agriculture, Google, apple etc etc people screamed bubble from day 1 of their booms but it took at least 6 - 12 years for those bubbles to burst ! Bitcoin barely started.

Take a deep breath, study the fundamentals you will realize how genius crypto currencies are and how lucky you are to be in so early and Buy in !

$60,000-150,000 within the next 12 months.

[Hfertig]

I noticed people are too nervous to buy in, volatile markets can cause widespread fear which the smart money use to capitalize on. Look at it this way, if Bitcoin can achieve $1250 in such an EARLY stage you really think this is the end ? This is just the start people and the fact Bitcoin is valued so highly is because there is really nothing left in this world to invest in, every other assets class is either too confusing, too overvalued or too manipulated. $10,000 is easily achievable in the next 2 years at this rate.

Whatever price you buy in at right now you are guaranteed a minimum of 100% Return within 1 year (v conservative estimate), what other investment provides you the same returns ? None !

Bitcoin is still EARLY stages, Think about it guys just look at other assets/stocks like gold, oil, real estate, agriculture, Google, apple etc etc people screamed bubble from day 1 of their booms but it took at least 6 - 12 years for those bubbles to burst ! Bitcoin barely started.

Take a deep breath, study the fundamentals you will realize how genius crypto currencies are and how lucky you are to be in so early and Buy in !

$60,000-150,000 within the next 12 months.

ROFL !!!! Not sure what to say...

EDIT: Maybe you want to take the offer I posted previously...

[EuroTrash]

[Carlton Banks]

I was just looking at this thread. I guess your number could be more accurate

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

I looked at the same thread, I'm not sure whether you are doing the looking part successfully.

[paul44]

I feel in the future that bitcoin will achieve truly great things and at times the price will be very very high. I am not confident enough YET to buy as much as I would like to but I am sure once it matures a little more and confidence grows in it as a viable everyday currency that I will!

[Hfertig]

I was just looking at this thread. I guess your number could be more accurate

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

I looked at the same thread, I'm not sure whether you are doing the looking part successfully.

So what´s your point ?

[Carlton Banks]

I was just looking at this thread. I guess your number could be more accurate

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

I looked at the same thread, I'm not sure whether you are doing the looking part successfully.

So what´s your point ?

You're reading the graph as a set of discrete points with straight lines connecting them, but it's actually point drops in supply inflation rate with a curve connecting each drop. We are currently around ~274,000 blocks, so you're not reading the graph properly.

[Hfertig]

I was just looking at this thread. I guess your number could be more accurate

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

I looked at the same thread, I'm not sure whether you are doing the looking part successfully.

So what´s your point ?

You're reading the graph as a set of discrete points with straight lines connecting them, but it's actually point drops in supply inflation rate with a curve connecting each drop. We are currently around ~274,000 blocks, so you're not reading the graph properly.

The point I was making was that bitcoin has a higher inflation than most fiat in western countries. The rate was secondary and I already admitted that I only quickly glanced on it. Can we move on ?