Is the hype/awareness stage over?

[bootlace]

Both the March (Cyprus sparked) and November (China sparked) rises in Bitcoin value came on the back of unprecedented coverage that provided awareness and hype to a new and exciting technology. Bitcoin's value multiplied exponentially as a result even with usage/infrastructure developments not changing tremendously. I'm wondering whether we have exhausted such phases at this point since everyone who would be interested in getting into Bitcoin has probably already heard about it and already gotten into it. (perhaps precious metals loving libertarians and some brave fund managers being the exception).

If Bitcoin can no longer really benefit from increased awareness/hype - then any further growth has to come from actual usability, technology and adoption from businesses and complimentary services. Let's hope the startups in this space are actually working on this aspect because hype can only push price so high..

[piramida]

no. you forgot legitimization. the more businesses operate in bitcoin and the more coverage goes on, the more "legit" it starts to become in the eyes of the more cautious investors (and by nature, they are the ones with real money).

Surely, most people in financial circles heard about bitcoins. But I would wager that less than 1% understood and accepted that it's quite a legitimate instrument; most dismiss it immediately with disbelief, since it's something completely out of the box and no existing financial instrument's description fits it; so it gets in the "ponzi" basket, instead of "something new that I don't have a brain to fully understand yet" basket.

[zimmah]

less than 0.1% of humanity uses bitcoin, and still only a small percentage has any idea what a bitcoin is.

new hypes will come.

[notmichael]

Lots of new people have heard of it, but there's a big distance between hearing about it and using it. There's still an incredible way to go on both ends, with businesses transacting (and the infrastructure to do so) and the man-on-the-street being able to use it competently.

If you're in doubt, walk outside and ask the next 10 people you see.

[paratox]

9 of 10 people I talk to, don't even want to understand the concept of cryptocurrencies and just dismiss it from the beginning.
1 of 10 people I talk to, would like to understand, but can't wrap their head around the concept (yet).
Once in a while someone gets it and join the movement.

2 hours ago I sat in a bar with 2 friends when the topic changed to bitcoin. After 10 min of discussion they said "lets talk about something else, this bitcoin thing is boring." And thats from people who heard about Bitcoin for the first time a year ago.

I sat there just thinking "WTF?" I tried to explain to them, why cryptocurrencies may be important for the financial future of humankind and that it's worth to take the time trying to understand the possibilities and consequences.

They brushed it off like the financial system we live in right now is Ok and there is no need to question it at all.

We have still a long way to go...

[beaconpcguru]

Both the March (Cyprus sparked) and November (China sparked) rises in Bitcoin value came on the back of unprecedented coverage that provided awareness and hype to a new and exciting technology. Bitcoin's value multiplied exponentially as a result even with usage/infrastructure developments not changing tremendously. I'm wondering whether we have exhausted such phases at this point since everyone who would be interested in getting into Bitcoin has probably already heard about it and already gotten into it. (perhaps precious metals loving libertarians and some brave fund managers being the exception).

If Bitcoin can no longer really benefit from increased awareness/hype - then any further growth has to come from actual usability, technology and adoption from businesses and complimentary services. Let's hope the startups in this space are actually working on this aspect because hype can only push price so high..

Your neighbors and coworkers talking about their bitcoin investments yet?  Didn't think so... the answer to your question is that its just starting

[zimmah]

9 of 10 people I talk to, don't even want to understand the concept of cryptocurrencies and just dismiss it from the beginning.
1 of 10 people I talk to, would like to understand, but can't wrap their head around the concept (yet).
Once in a while someone gets it and join the movement.

2 hours ago I sat in a bar with 2 friends when the topic changed to bitcoin. After 10 min of discussion they said "lets talk about something else, this bitcoin thing is boring." And thats from people who heard about Bitcoin for the first time a year ago.

I sat there just thinking "WTF?" I tried to explain to them, why cryptocurrencies may be important for the financial future of humankind and that it's worth to take the time trying to understand the possibilities and consequences.

They brushed it off like the financial system we live in right now is Ok and there is no need to question it at all.

We have still a long way to go...

9 out of 10 people didn't 'need' or 'want' the internet in the early 90's, give it time.

In fact, the company in charge of the glass fiber infrastructure needed months of advertising in order to get 30% of the region to accept glass fiber while fiber is clearly a huge advantage over what we have currently (note that in this region the maximum internet speed was about 8Mb/s before fiber)

[kireinaha]

9 out of 10 people didn't 'need' or 'want' the internet in the early 90's, give it time.

In fact, the company in charge of the glass fiber infrastructure needed months of advertising in order to get 30% of the region to accept glass fiber while fiber is clearly a huge advantage over what we have currently (note that in this region the maximum internet speed was about 8Mb/s before fiber)

I don't get this Internet comparison that people keep making. The Internet was largely used by researchers and scientists in the early 1990s, but basic packet switching technology merely serves as the foundation for the world wide web, which is what most people would now refer to simply as "the Internet". At this point in history, there was no reason for consumers to use the Internet unless they needed access to resources on university networks or something specific. But people certainly recognized the utility of the Internet and it was appreciated.

Once the world wide web was developed and companies such as AOL released software portals for subscribers, the service took off almost overnight. There's no comparison with bitcoin. The world wide web and development of affordable personal computers ushered in a new paradigm. People could chat with strangers online who had similar interests, e-mail friends and family instantly, and gain access to a massive amount of information online.

With bitcoin, you can... make payments over a peer to peer network. It's an interesting development in the world of currency, but it's not a game changer. Hence, the average person just isn't that interested in it, aside from the potential to make money from speculating.

[Le Happy Merchant]

If you're in doubt, walk outside and ask the next 10 people you see.

I do this everyday. Used to pass out .01BTC to anyone who would get the wallet app on their phone on the spot. I can say first hand that 90% of people haven't heard of them (in a young town) and of those that have, almost none of them know more than 'Oh yea, its that internet thing right? I heard (some dumb nonsense)' 

[shmadz]

9 out of 10 people didn't 'need' or 'want' the internet in the early 90's, give it time.

In fact, the company in charge of the glass fiber infrastructure needed months of advertising in order to get 30% of the region to accept glass fiber while fiber is clearly a huge advantage over what we have currently (note that in this region the maximum internet speed was about 8Mb/s before fiber)

I don't get this Internet comparison that people keep making. The Internet was largely used by researchers and scientists in the early 1990s, but basic packet switching technology merely serves as the foundation for the world wide web, which is what most people would now refer to simply as "the Internet". At this point in history, there was no reason for consumers to use the Internet unless they needed access to resources on university networks or something specific. But people certainly recognized the utility of the Internet and it was appreciated.

Once the world wide web was developed and companies such as AOL released software portals for subscribers, the service took off almost overnight. There's no comparison with bitcoin. The world wide web and development of affordable personal computers ushered in a new paradigm. People could chat with strangers online who had similar interests, e-mail friends and family instantly, and gain access to a massive amount of information online.

With bitcoin, you can... make payments over a peer to peer network. It's an interesting development in the world of currency, but it's not a game changer. Hence, the average person just isn't that interested in it, aside from the potential to make money from speculating.

As long as nations and banks keep their books hidden and private, continuing to issue as much currency as they like, then yes, nothing will change. I truly hope that bitcoin and the distributed, verifiable blockchain system of transactions becomes the new standard. Just imagine if a nation or politicians or banks had to show you what they were really spending the money on.

Actually. Fuck that. I usually try to be level headed but there is no real money anymore! Not dollars, not stocks, not gold. This whole financial system is one big scam.

Bitcoin is the closest we have, and if you think this beta project is gonna go nice and smooth, you got another thing comin'.

[PenAndPaper]

The fact that some people heard about bitcoin doesn't mean that they trust it or believe in it. Most of the people need time for something to be proved solid first to invest. The concept is way to strange for people to jump on it just after reading an article online.

[henryreardon]

With bitcoin, you can... make payments over a peer to peer network. It's an interesting development in the world of currency, but it's not a game changer. 

Respectfully but emphatically disagree.  Bitcoin has the very real potential to becomes the world's first "people's currency" -- the real deal, not able to confiscated or counterfeited by governments, immune to monetary manipulation and inflation.  This could effectively end corruption, cure world hunger, and put a man on mars within 10 years.  Bitcoin is way, way, way bigger than the internet.

For this reason, expect resistance, lots of it.

[sgbett]

This weekend was the first time I met a person who knew about bitcoin that I hadn't told. The subject came up, and he snorted with derision "hah, you're not into that bitcoin are you" I chuckled inside, his wife didn't seem quite so cocksure when she learned I picked a few up back when it was a dollar.  

I'd say there is a way to go yet...

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Bitcoin is way, way, way bigger than the internet.

Disagree.  Without internet, bitcoin wouldn't be here.  Internet is efficient information sharing.  Bitcoin only represents the monetary part of this information sharing (along with its competitors of course).
I agree though that the implications for humanity are big.

[kjj]

Actually. Fuck that. I usually try to be level headed but there is no real money anymore! Not dollars, not stocks, not gold. This whole financial system is one big scam.

The key.

A person's willingness to accept bitcoin is directly related to how well they've processed this reality.

I'm just not sure I'd call it all a scam.  Parts of it certainly are.  But letting everything float freely isn't a scam, it is an evolution, a necessary step towards bitcoin.

[shmadz]

letting everything float freely isn't a scam, it is an evolution, a necessary step towards bitcoin.

truth

[Hfertig]

Yes it is over. The price is to high and no one wants to take the risk to lose their investment. Most people interested in finance have heard of bitcoin and believe it is a bubble. Only those who would never invest in anything are still in the dark.

[traderCJ]

Yes, Bitcoin is dead.  No more good news is on the horizon.  Not one more person will accept it as a currency.  No one will use it as a store of value.  Starting .. now. /sarcasm

[bootlace]

I agree with all the points that there are still billions of people with just a faint understanding of what Bitcoin is or how it could benefit them and perhaps many who don't even read the technology side of their news sources. My point though is that no amount of generic news or hype will get these people into Bitcoin. Most people aren't aware of the problems associated with governments fiat printing and probably couldn't be asked to do anything about it if they did. As far as they're concerned Bitcoin is a solution without a problem to fix. Think about something like 'Evernote' app - people who use it swear by it and think its the greatest thing ever, those who have heard about it once have already gotten into it or thought its not for them.

Another cycle of hype/awareness and a series of news reports is not going to be whats going to convince those lazy sheep of the population to finally get into Bitcoin. The type of people who would be interested in being early adopters in Bitcoin have probably all been exposed to BTC and already made their decision.

So if we have really run out of early adopters that will jump into Bitcoin sheerly through awareness/hype - then any further growth has to come from actual improvements in usability, practicality, and yes trust. What I'm saying is we can't rely on a subset of a population (early adopters) just 'hearing' about Bitcoin for it to skyrocket any longer. The news from now on has to be things like major businesses offering attracting discounts for BTC users, or maybe some businesses accepting only BTC (forcing users to it), or perhaps a new application of BTC that is so much more conveniant than anything else (perhaps in gaming or something), or a major financial catastrophe etc..

People have gotten abit greedy over the last 2 boom cycles that its super easy for BTC to appreciate in value - but I feel those 'easy' manic growths are over and from here onwards its going to be a slow gradual grind gaining increasing acceptance. Institutional investors are the exception here, if they get into it we can see huge gains again without much infrastructure/usage developments to back it.

[windjc]

I agree with all the points that there are still billions of people with just a faint understanding of what Bitcoin is or how it could benefit them and perhaps many who don't even read the technology side of their news sources. My point though is that no amount of generic news or hype will get these people into Bitcoin. Most people aren't aware of the problems associated with governments fiat printing and probably couldn't be asked to do anything about it if they did. As far as they're concerned Bitcoin is a solution without a problem to fix. Think about something like 'Evernote' app - people who use it swear by it and think its the greatest thing ever, those who have heard about it once have already gotten into it or thought its not for them.

Another cycle of hype/awareness and a series of news reports is not going to be whats going to convince those lazy sheep of the population to finally get into Bitcoin. The type of people who would be interested in being early adopters in Bitcoin have probably all been exposed to BTC and already made their decision.

So if we have really run out of early adopters that will jump into Bitcoin sheerly through awareness/hype - then any further growth has to come from actual improvements in usability, practicality, and yes trust. What I'm saying is we can't rely on a subset of a population (early adopters) just 'hearing' about Bitcoin for it to skyrocket any longer. The news from now on has to be things like major businesses offering attracting discounts for BTC users, or maybe some businesses accepting only BTC (forcing users to it), or perhaps a new application of BTC that is so much more conveniant than anything else (perhaps in gaming or something), or a major financial catastrophe etc..

People have gotten abit greedy over the last 2 boom cycles that its super easy for BTC to appreciate in value - but I feel those 'easy' manic growths are over and from here onwards its going to be a slow gradual grind gaining increasing acceptance. Institutional investors are the exception here, if they get into it we can see huge gains again without much infrastructure/usage developments to back it.

Why don't you just sell your bitcoins and leave the forum. You were talking about how China's new was a gamechanger and it was over.

Ok. Maybe you are right. So why are you here?

Obviously most people on here believe that bitcoin has a viable future and will flourish.  Most of us weren't expecting to be at $1200 by November. But it happened. What can you do?

We only have to grow 10x more to get to 10k. We grew at 700x+ this year.  So do you really think its unreasonable? With the ETF coming out. With more merchant adoption. With exchanges opening up in different countries. With VC projects like Circle.com working on creating killer apps and merchant adoption type online applications.

So, this is as high as it EVER goes?

If you think so, great.

Most of us have a different opinion obviously.