Is a Madmax outcome coming before 2020? Thus do we need anonymity?

[CoinCube]

We are spiraling into Mad Max:

http://www.nestmann.com/supreme-court-confirms-you-really-are-guilty-until-proven-innocent

It is clear that only 3 of the 9 are willing to protect constitutional rights. The other 6 are willing to uphold tyranny.

The tenth amendment has long since fallen.
It is clear we can no longer rely on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh.
Progressive undermining of the second will follow.
The first alone will not stand long.
 

[AnonyMint]

When the rule of law goes away (because everyone is bankrupt and it is impossible for the system to pay and be trusted), all we have remaining is Trusting Trust combined with trusting algorithms which don't require trust.

Political bullshit morass will be more harmful than worthless.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Some great info on this thread, but also some doomer stuff.

Yeah the system's we have are screwed, yeah banks will keep rinsing us and yeah it'll probably implode in the next 20 odd years as the west falls off it's demographic cliff ala Japan.

But the public simply will not wake up any time soon. There more interested in attacking the rich or denigrating the underclasses led by sock puppet MSM when they're not watching the Kardashians or some other mind rot. And therein lies the problem, all the slaves are still fighting among themselves without looking to the problem of centralised control of government and money supply.

Here, we are part of an incredibly tiny demographic (I'm talking broad strokes libertarian, freemarket, awake and aware types, I do not mean to speak for all). We have almost zero representation in the mainstream, Ron Paul? Nigel Farage? Yeah they are good for entertainment but they are pin pricks in the ass of an elephant. But it will come one day. The sooner the SHTF the sooner we can move towards a more civil society. The world is fast approaching a moment where the math of free money and power to banks will have to fail. Will we see it in our lifetimes? I hope, but certainly don't expect it.

What's left of the free market will continue to churn out innovation just as the efficiencies and wealth it creates are then used by governments to make up more reasons control countries. And personally I'm not even sure that bitcoin truly contributes to freedom in it's current form, though it is disruptive and innovative.

Things will shamble forward, but it aint all bad

I found a great video recently, while I already knew most of it I enjoy Don Harrold's musings thought you guys might like it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFwsWpa7Wuc&feature=share

[AnonyMint]

Cross-posting because I think this is highly relevant to this thread...

mattboldfield, I'd like to hear your reaction to the following even if you disagree with me?

I'm obsessed because if you read my Mad Max and CoinCube's Economic Devastation threads, I believe we are going into a very severe, global economic implosion starting around 2016ish to worsen until 2020 and beyond, due to precisely $223 trillion in global total debt (not including China's huge shadow debt economy backed by copper, etc and other off balance obligations in every country that are lurking) i.e. 313% of global GDP, very roughly a $quadrillion in derivatives ("weapons of mass destruction"- Buffet), and very roughly a $quadrillion of unfunded social welfare promises made by governments. According to the IMF, this is at least a 200 year high in debt-to-GDP ratio, and I am confident it is the worst ever in recorded history since Mesopotamia when all factors mentioned above are included.

Because of the coincident and concomitant technological unemployment (predicted by the prestigious Oxford University at Cambridge, England to destroy 47% of all existing jobs before 2032), there is no way to grow GDP to pay this off. I explained that those who argue that debt is merely an accounting ledger item and thus can be quickly erased and restarted anew are ignorant. So the only choice we have is which sector of society to charge this write-down to. The governments have made it clear with their actions of austerity, increased taxes, and depositor bail-in plans, that they intend to charge the $quadrillions of write-downs to private wealth and not to the elite who own most of the wealth who run the bankster usury system (which is also the government via power vacuum capture of democracy). Imploding private wealth means the government won't have anything remaining to tax. Do you remember what Hitler did (and many other examples in history) when he couldn't raise revenues to pay for his universal health care system? Euthanasia. Y'all do know I hope that Hitler was printing his own money and doing massive public works programs such as the Autobahn.

This looks like it can downward spiral into a Dark Age. That affects all of us.

The only solution I see is for there to be a way for the entrepreneurs who make the world prosperous to have a way to hide their wealth from government so they can continue generating prosperity. Gold won't work, because gold can't be transacted very anonymously over distance nor without being snooped on by those you are transacting with, and this is why every move away from fractional reserves to gold always implodes the economy as the velocity of money plummets (it is down by 50% since 2007). Even the 1800s gold standard was based on fractional reserves at the private unregulated banks (and no Andrew Jackson didn't stop this and concomitant frequent bank runs which is why we ended up with a central bank later), we were not using physical gold as money.

So I devised a (as of yet unimplemented, unpublished) solution for crypto-currency that is reliably anonymous and fixes many of the other problems that I mentioned about Bitcoin.

I believe this solution might save us. And so thus I am obsessed with surviving. I hope you are too.

That makes me a troll?

P.S. On the more conspiratorial perspective, I also see that Bitcoin's design takes us directly to a world government digital fiat which is the 666 tracking system. Not that I necessary believe the Bible's Revelation, but I don't want to live in a world where we are slaves to a top-down control from Brussels.

[AnonyMint]

Must read.

[mgburks77]

Perhaps these issues are inherent to the concept of market distribution itself.

If this is so why not do an end run and go back to decentralized production with little or no surplus to be exchanged, or is that a "dark age"?

You know the term "dark ages" is not an accepted technical term in academia any more and millions of people lived happy, productive, FREE lives in the wake of the fall of Rome.

I wouldn't mind living in a so-called "dark age" with the level of technical development that has been reached. Furthermore really advanced technical development from this point on will probably be individual or at the very least decentralized any way.

Perhaps these monumental changes represent the end game as envisioned by Karl Marx and what will happen of the fall of central planning is a move into stateless society.

One that doesn't require socialized production due to technical advances such as 3D printing and quantum computing. (Marx never envisioned these technical developments and his theories have a basis in socialized production which is not really relevant now)

[mgburks77]

I think it is well established that life is a by product of the natural process of entropy. Self organization appears to be a process that releases or degrades stored energy and helps restore equilibrium to the energy and mass differentials that consciousness experiences as the physical universe.

Suppose that self-organization will continue to evolve to an "omega point" where consciousness, space-time, matter, and energy come to the maximum complexity and density, with maximum efficiency in transmitting information and processing and that at the point in which the universe reaches the point of equilibrium all consciousness past, present, and future is transcended and that everything will be experienced at once by all as the universe collapses in on itself to a single point, a monad.

That singularity is equivalent to a quantum computer and when the next "big bang" is experienced, this is equivalent to the quantum computer running another simulation and it all begins again.

"All composed things are like a dream,
a phantom, a drop of dew, a flash of lightning.
That is how to meditate on them,
that is how to observe them."

This is the meditation of the Diamond Sutra

"Sometimes total destruction is the only solution"
Bob Marley

[AnonyMint]

http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-22683

Apologies for so many posts. I will try to make this the last one.

Can anyone help me on quantifying the Philippines' total debt-to-GDP ratio?

Note the breakdown from the WSJ blog for emerging markets, 14% public, 34% household & corporate, 43% financial sector, and 9% private-sector external, not including the underground (shadow banking) economy.

I found the official government debt of the Philippines is 49% of GDP. External debt excluding government appears to be roughly $32 billion or 12% of GDP. Gross loans are 37% of GDP but I am not clear if that includes the 35% household debt share of GDP (that would leave only 2% for business? impossible) and the underground economy estimated at 20 - 30% of GDP. I see this underground economy, e.g. these private credit agencies that extend loans at exorbitant interest rates to those who have a vehicle or land title to provide as collateral.

Thus I add it all up and get 133% x 1.3 for underground = 173% of GDP.

The Banko Sentral link on gross loans shows 15% loan growth in 2011, 16% in 2012, and 18% in 2013, while the GDP has only been growing at 7% and that assumes the official 2.5% inflation figure is accurate which I doubt because minimum wage salaries have increased faster.

Is it realistic to assume a -50% drop in GDP ahead for the Philippines when 50% of its OFWs lose their jobs, the credit and infrastructure bubble pops, and the global contagion ahead? That would increase the debt-to-GDP ratio to 300+% but since most of it is domestic if the central bank allows it to liquidate then we get that severe correction and then the debt level shrinks?

I note Banko Sentral is now forced to start raising interest rates due to the new policy on QE and imminent end of ZIRP at the Fed. So the bubble here in Philippines should pop in 2015 when the QE is 0 and Fed starts raising rates.

[AnonyMint]

I wouldn't mind living in a so-called "dark age" with the level of technical development that has been reached. Furthermore really advanced technical development from this point on will probably be individual or at the very least decentralized any way.

Perhaps these monumental changes represent the end game as envisioned by Karl Marx and what will happen of the fall of central planning is a move into stateless society.

One that doesn't require socialized production due to technical advances such as 3D printing and quantum computing. (Marx never envisioned these technical developments and his theories have a basis in socialized production which is not really relevant now)

We were thinking similarly:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg5854954#msg5854954

[mgburks77]

I wouldn't mind living in a so-called "dark age" with the level of technical development that has been reached. Furthermore really advanced technical development from this point on will probably be individual or at the very least decentralized any way.

Perhaps these monumental changes represent the end game as envisioned by Karl Marx and what will happen of the fall of central planning is a move into stateless society.

One that doesn't require socialized production due to technical advances such as 3D printing and quantum computing. (Marx never envisioned these technical developments and his theories have a basis in socialized production which is not really relevant now)

We were thinking similarly:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg5854954#msg5854954

I await the product of your labor, or another that fits the same criteria

[AnonyMint]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/24/the-real-conspiracy-the-imf-tax-agenda/

Obama is on board fully with the IMF agenda to raise taxes substantially French style. The IMF has been behind the scenes going to every former tax shelter and threatening them to turn over data. They have hit the Caribbean islands right down to Panama. Obama has laced the Ukrainian aid with the IMF Poison Pill. The IMF wants a shit load of money to tear apart the global economy in search of unpaid taxes. The Obama Administration has conspired with the IMF behind closed doors and entirely out of the Congress to pursue this secret agenda. They are on the path to destroy Western Civilization as we know it. This is no joke.

[practicaldreamer]

They are on the path to destroy Western Civilization as we know it. This is no joke.

No - they are on a path to reclaim some of the revenue (that has been stolen from the citizens of various nation states) from the thieves who have grabbed it in the first place.

The only solution I see is for there to be a way for the entrepreneurs who make the world prosperous to have a way to hide their wealth

The only solution I see is for the priviledged class to pay their dues in the countries where they have extracted a surplus value.

As an aside, I think the UK governments proposals on the (consumption) taxation of online gambling is interesting.

Or are Ladbrokes, Betfair et al a part of this elite grouping of entrepeneurs who make the world prosperous   ?

[CoinCube]

They are on the path to destroy Western Civilization as we know it. This is no joke.

No - they are on a path to reclaim some of the revenue (that has been stolen from the citizens of various nation states) from the thieves who have grabbed it in the first place.
...
The only solution I see is for the priviledged class to pay their dues in the countries where they have extracted a surplus value.

Your solution will make things worse practicaldreamer. It sounds good but in reality it will gut the middle class without actually taking any wealth from the privileged.

Why this is the case is not at all obvious. However, I will try to fully explain it in my Analysis of the Banking System which I will finish writing over the next few weeks. I am pretty busy at the moment so it will probably take me a week to get each part out.

[dotcom]

If we go into a Madmax world where the governments are bailing-in all the bank deposits, they are instituting negative interest rates to charge you money every month for having money, and the IMF's proposed net worth tax, etc...

Then all those who have wealth will want anonymity. And all those who don't have wealth and suck the tit of government, will not want anonymity.

Which one of those categories applies to you?

Do you think that Madmax outcome is not coming before 2020?

Long as I have my gyrocopter i'll be fine 

[AnonyMint]

Bank runs in China indicative of the failing huge Shadow (unofficial, unregulated) banking sector which isn't protected against defaults:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-china-banking-idUSBREA2P02H20140326

Omen of worse to come in late 2015 and then really accelerating in 2016.

[AnonyMint]

Cross-posting...

I doubt United States would give back Alaska without a World War III. The petition is a joke.

Everyone knows that the petition is a joke. The only possibility of Russian regaining Alaska is in the event of disintegration of the USA.

Putin senses the USA is growing internally weak. A significant number of "locked and loaded, take it from my cold dead hands" Americans are ready to attack the government from within, when the time comes. The "United States" corporation is losing the mandate from the governed.

The United States will probably breakup. This is not a joke. You folks need to wake up to the global economic conflagrapocalypse tsunami that is going to hit within 18 months.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/26/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/

This Collapsing Wave structure that the United States appears to be in means it is a one-time-wonder and that the United States will break-up and the there will be no more “united” union. This is becoming self-evidence in the polarization of politics with tremendous differences in culture on a regional basis. The Obamacare is just one aspect revealing the undercurrent whereby one segment of society believes it has a right to force their views upon another group.

Marcus-Aurelius-BustSo unfortunately, the USA does not appear to be destined to remain intact otherwise we would have seen and overall structured wave of 224 years. We seem to be in the Collapsing Wave with the 224 years was from birth to peak with an overall duration of 309.6 years at best. This appears to be like the Collapsing Wave in Imperial Rome itself whereas from the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44BC to the peak in the glory of Rome and population in the city took place under Marcus Aurelius that was 224 years later in 180AD. The decline that followed brought total chaos, sovereign debt crisis, massive government seizure of capital, fragmentation of the Empire, and in the end, Rome was no longer the Capitol and that became Constantinople followed by the split of East and West. We are much more akin to the this type of Collapsing Wave formation whereby society collapses and breaks apart. Now we have the Cycle of War turning in 2014 that appears to be focused within civil unrest at least initially.

We will be reviewing this aspect as well at the Cycle of War – Gold – Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference on March 21st in Philadelphia.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/15/madmax-v-restructure/

The future course of the United States will follow the same pattern. Pre-Revolution, you had separate states. That became the UNITED states in 1789. We will see a breakup of the states most likely banding together in regions because of the difference in cultural views such as the Bible Belt. The fight over Obamacare illustrates the stark differences and this is fundamentally wrong for it is forcing one groups interests upon another. There is no such thing as equal rights but money is the exception. We are all treated the same even in law (no exception for politicians and bankers) or we are not a nation of equal rights. You can’t be just a little be pregnant! The US will break up, but it should not go into a MADMAX event as long as we reach resistance from the people. If the people keep just watching their sports and never notice what the governments are doing to their future until it is too late, then it can go too far and that in the MADMAX event the ended the Roman Empire.

[practicaldreamer]

A significant number of "locked and loaded, take it from my cold dead hands" Americans are ready to attack the government from within, when the time comes. The "United States" corporation is losing the mandate from the governed.

And that Anonymint is probably the most sense you have typed in 1000 posts and 1 trillion links. We are (and I never thought I would be saying this) in agreement 

I know its none of my business, but where are you putting your hard earned USD these days? It won't be BTC on account of the anonymity issues I expect - gold ? land ?

Hey, Russia is a good punt just now - but I guess the returns would be taxable 




Seems to me the centre of global economic power is shifting east as I type - and I can't see a Madmax outcome occurring any time soon in Shanghai.

US imperialism is on the wane from a global perspective - and its exploitatative domination and constant manipulation of the flow of information domestically (in order to maintain the finance capitalists hegemony) has, as you rightly point out, led to a situation where the US seems to have severe civil problems - indeed, no less than my time on this forum has opened my eyes to that fact.

And, to be clear, we should also say that the US's imminent demise in the world economic order is in no way due to socialism and the public ownership of the means of production in that country - on the contrary every square inch of the US, and the assetts contained therein, are owned by private individuals/Wall Street, whilst at the same time the countries that are now prospering seem to be those with socialist mixed economies.

  No - the unregulated free market has a lot to answer for in the US, and in the world, IMHO.

[AnonyMint]

Armstrong wrote that China should bottom in 2020. And Japan will bottom in 2016 (will have its final implosion climax after 26 years of slow motion collapse).

I originally had a difficult time understanding why. Then I realized the reason is because the developing countries including China have a very low government share of GDP, because they don't have elaborate social welfare systems. See my comments on mpettis.com earlier in 2013, where I quoted the Heritage foundation ranking of countries by "Government Share of GDP".

Thus agreed developing world won't go into Mad Max, but they will have a hard down phase 2016 to 2020. We just have to hope that phase doesn't incite war. If we do go into widespread war 2018 or 2019ish, then at the end Asia will come out stronger similar to the USA after WW2.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Armstrong wrote that China should bottom in 2020. And Japan will bottom in 2016 (will have its final implosion climax after 26 years of slow motion collapse).

I originally had a difficult time understanding why. Then I realized the reason is because the developing countries including China have a very low government share of GDP, because they don't have elaborate social welfare systems. See my comments on mpettis.com earlier in 2013, where I quoted the Heritage foundation ranking of countries by "Government Share of GDP".

Thus agreed developing world won't go into Mad Max, but they will have a hard down phase 2016 to 2020. We just have to hope that phase doesn't incite war. If we do go into widespread war 2018 or 2019ish, then at the end Asia will come out stronger similar to the USA after WW2.

Certainly agree that the West is in for a crunch 2016-2020. War is a concern, but I like to think it unlikely. The public generally seems to be pretty war-weary. Take Cameron in the UK being shot down for wanting to jump into Syria for example. I think it would take some significant event to spur a serious conflict. Something to keep an ear out for.

[trainingsengineering]

Armstrong wrote that China should bottom in 2020. And Japan will bottom in 2016 (will have its final implosion climax after 26 years of slow motion collapse).

I originally had a difficult time understanding why. Then I realized the reason is because the developing countries including China have a very low government share of GDP, because they don't have elaborate social welfare systems. See my comments on mpettis.com earlier in 2013, where I quoted the Heritage foundation ranking of countries by "Government Share of GDP".

Thus agreed developing world won't go into Mad Max, but they will have a hard down phase 2016 to 2020. We just have to hope that phase doesn't incite war. If we do go into widespread war 2018 or 2019ish, then at the end Asia will come out stronger similar to the USA after WW2.

Some of the forecasts by Armstrong are almost uncanny. I am certainly interested in his take on hyperinflation, i.e. when the currency does not survive.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/11/defining-hyperinflation-the-coming-new-currency/