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Author Topic: The Bitcoin environment seems toxic right now... has it felt like this before?  (Read 10982 times)
TheFootMan
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March 21, 2014, 08:54:58 PM
 #61

Perhaps it's just the forums, but I feel like there's a lot of negative vibes coming from BTC right now. 
I've following Bitcoin and mining for a while but never bothered with forums until recently.  Is this common amongst forum-goers or is it really just Bitcoin in general?


If 10 things happens, of which 9 are positive and 1 is negative, the press will be all over the negative thing.

This can create an environment where seemingly bitcoin is painted in a bad light, however, if you go beneath the negative press, you will see all the positive development that is taking place.

http://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoin

if you read that subreddit daily, you will see there's not just negativity, but also a lot of positive things happening.
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March 21, 2014, 08:58:32 PM
 #62

The main problem with Bitcoin is the lack of a safe, reliable, simple, user-friendly infrastructure that allows the Average Joe to buy, sell and use bitcoins for his everyday purchasing needs. We can't expect the Average Joe to learn how to use paper wallets, brain wallets and the like. There must be a user-friendly infrastructure in place before Bitcoin can start to take off and eventually reach mainstream adoption. There must be trusted third parties.
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March 21, 2014, 10:04:11 PM
 #63

this removal of newbie section, removed the filter that was helping to reduce random comments of panic, scamming and offtopic ramblings
Makes me wish this forum was set up like Reddit with upvoting

/r/bitcoin isn't much different, though

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March 21, 2014, 10:09:36 PM
Last edit: March 21, 2014, 10:31:35 PM by AnonyMint
 #64

The people who believe it will go to the moon are not the people who can take it there. Bitcoin's userbase must constantly grow, and it does, at an exponential speed.

Do we have any data since the Mt.Gox blowup to confirm or deny whether the adoption rate was affected by the major hit on Bitcoin's reputation?

Feels to me we might be in a lull waiting for some major exchange(s) to comply with some new government monitoring of reserve ratios or something. Something that would signal to the masses that Bitcoin is safe for them.

The exponential growth in bitcoin users is just a result of people hearing about bitcoins and having enough time to think about investing in them. The paradigm might change when we hit the "chasm" at about 2.5% of the population. Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

I think that would be correct, except the 0.1% seems too high (my guesstimate is 0.01-0.03% based on the prior analysis I did of your counting methods and also the Bitcoin market cap is not within an order-of-magnitude of that share of global net worth which is $250+ trillion). Most people coming in are investors and they will be motivated by potential gains. So the longer we are below trendline, the more rocket fuel has been loaded.

How much can the investment grow without a commensurate adoption for real commerce?

The chasm is an interesting concept. Because I was thinking that when we get to 100 million (1.5%) there should be great incentive for global (e.g. internet) merchants to cater to the large global market, so it should catapult from there. There may be a chasm (for those not coming in primarily as investors, i.e. the masses) where the 100 million or so are too spread out globally to drive merchants which tend to be more local in scope.

Thus I think the key is going to be some way of using crypto-currency in trade for something online that is very popular (because it can have global scope and the chasm won't be diluted by physical sparseness). I specifically have a business model in mind for this, w.r.t. to social networking. If I am correct to assume anonymity will be required for this, then Bitcoin isn't it. I am still evaluating this, so I am not sure about that.

Btw, Nadeem called this crash to $500 back in November and is calling for below $100 someday:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43420.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article44455.html

Quote from: Nadeem
bottom line is that bitcoins never matched the hype for transactions are NOT anonymous and it IS heavily manipulated by a handful of mining pools so is not decentralised as today ordinary people cannot muster the processing power required to mine for bitcoins.

He can only be correct if we've already saturated investor adoption. I doubt it.

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March 21, 2014, 10:29:24 PM
 #65

It is a great time to buy some BTC (and alts too), as long as you have more money ready for even lower prices (if/when those come)

Yes. I also think altcoins are now beginning to complete with bitcoin for mainstream news coverage. Evidently there are many hidden gems that are practically undiscovered and just waiting to break out on a massive uptrend.

http://altcoinpress.com/2014/03/dogecoins-ben-doernberg-wows-fox-news/

This Ben Doernberg guy explains one possible version of the future quite well. I think he's right on the money.
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March 21, 2014, 10:32:40 PM
 #66

From what I have seen, there are waves of these feelings and events. It appears that all of the good talk and vibes about Bitcoin come, then bad news comes, then good news, and so on. Almost like the modern economy, just a lot more drastic at times.

Use my referral link if you want: https://primedice.com/?ref=Crazynoggin
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March 21, 2014, 10:36:05 PM
 #67

From what I have seen, there are waves of these feelings and events. It appears that all of the good talk and vibes about Bitcoin come, then bad news comes, then good news, and so on. Almost like the modern economy, just a lot more drastic at times.

The "waves of these feelings and events" are part of human nature/market cycles, or...
...is the Gov/MSM intentionally making BTC volatility more extreme with good media/bad media cycles?

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March 21, 2014, 11:53:19 PM
Last edit: March 22, 2014, 03:00:04 AM by AnonyMint
 #68

Follow up on my prior post above...

Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

more like 0.0001% of total population

I was assuming 2 million users now and target penetration of 2 billion users => 0.1%.

It is true that most of the 2 million are not really "using" bitcoin now, so we cannot yet directly observe how world-changing Bitcoin is. This "land-grab phase" is designed to take us there.

My 0.01% - 0.03% guesstimate was 600,000 to 1.8 million based on world population of 6 billion.

Dogecoin (why don't they pronounce it "doggiecoin" or "dog-ecoin" Huh) claims 100,000 users yet the mcap is only $43 million. Apparently it is the copper-zinc penny coin (feel good marketing, donations, cute dogs) and Litecoin is the current silver to Bitcoin's gold.

Isn't market cap more relevant+concrete than the nebulous concept of "users" (not all types of users are the same).

Feel free to copy or reply to this on your other thread that is relevant to this issue.

We are clearly in investment only stage, because who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend. That will block any major application as a currency until governments bless it as legal tender. But why would governments ever bless it since it removes their authority to control the money supply?

At some point the reality of that has to hit the investment demand. But I guess we have a lot of myopia to go before the "stampede to the exits" realization.




who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend.

That question makes no sense to me as a U.S. tax payer.  Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

1. The hassle of recording and paying tax for numerous daily tidbit transactions is far outweighed by the insignificant value loss of holding $500 in your checking account (exhibit my prior post that average Dogecoin holding is claimed to be $430 per user).

2. You are not thinking like the masses who are not the rich precisely because they don't have a lot of savings to invest. And thus they don't have the same priority set as you. But you as an investor in what you want them to use, need to think like them to understand this investment.

I saw this within my initial study of Bitcoin yet Risto (and you?) apparently haven't registered this in your consciousness yet after years of being invested.

The wildcard is if there could be an application (other than investing) that targeted the rich demographic which is investing in Bitcoin. Well that is...anonymity. They will need it to survive what is coming! And Bitcoin doesn't have it.

Applying the criteria of logical coherence which you impose upon those you disagree with, I should therefore conclude that you are incapable of competent cognition and should be ignored.

Of course that criterion is a ludicrous one, but I thought it might be helpful to you if I pointed that out.

You just proved my point.



Again you misjudge the masses, because you are not one. You can't put yourself in their mindset and priority set. I can.

who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend.

That question makes no sense to me as a U.S. tax payer.  Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

1. The hassle of recording and paying tax for numerous daily tidbit transactions is far outweighed by the insignificant value loss of holding $500 in your checking account (exhibit my prior post that average Dogecoin holding is claimed to be $430 per user).


There is no hassle, because it is trivial to automate.

In theory yes, but in practice no. I detect you don't have real world experience doing technical support for a software company. I do.

You don't have every user using the same application and tax regime. Some tax regimes are not even efile yet.

And users will avoid something with no advantages which carries the stigma of needing to pay a tax. If they are using it as a currency, they aren't paying attention to gains, and see the tax only as a burden and risk (what if they automation fails, they lose their backup copy, then can't comply with the tax filing!)

Eventually you could get there, but long before that the government will have taken over the exchanges, the pools, and the coin. Or simply offered a digital fiat which doesn't have Bitcoin's problems.

And btw, what is the advantage for the average person to use Bitcoin and go through this hassle to set up this software? None that I can see.


My gosh you missed the main point. The masses like fiat! They don't require that the digital currency of the world needs to not be a fiat.

And you did not address the point that the masses don't like the properties of Bitcoin:

  • Mixes traceable illegal activity with their funds
  • No protection against theft
  • No refundable protection
  • No consumer protection
  • Very volatile price
  • Must convert to and from fiat which is a hassle
  • Very slow transactions, and confusing
  • No government guaranteed deposit insurance
  • Can't obtain a loan or credit card in bitcoins
  • There is no cash version to use offline.

Fiat doesn't have those weaknesses. Fiat has other weaknesses which we are concerned about, but the masses don't care about those weaknesses that bother us. Later the masses will fall into the abyss, then some of them will learn to appreciate our ideals but most of them won't learn.


A pretty large set of users just don't file tax returns, and could not care in the least.

For those in the 3rd world, they use cash and the vendors they buy from will not be accepting Bitcoin any time soon. Simply worse for them in every way.

There is nothing they can gain from being banked with Bitcoin that they couldn't get with cash.

Even money transfer using Bitcoin is stupid, since they need to convert to cash any way.

For those minority who don't (a super majority does) file taxes in the developed countries, I still don't see what is the reason for them to use Bitcoin?

Most in USA file a tax return to get their payroll deductions refund, or their Child Tax credit, etc.. I don't know about Europe?

Another large set have people who do that for them.  The remainder generally have an app for that.

For example, localbitcoins doesn't have an app for that.  They would need to customize the app for every tax regime too.

Bitcoin has enormous usability problems for quotidian consumer applications.  I am acutely aware of this.  But capital gains tax is not one of them.

Capital gains is one of them as this scales away from investors to consumers.

Indeed there are many other problems that make Bitcoin impractical. The argument is always offchain services, but those are a problem too or bring us right back to fiat.

I just don't see the big idealistic win. If you are just hoping to help the government create a digital fiat, and get rich on that investment, I doubt it will work out, because of the $223 trillion debt the government is going to confiscate all the wealth it can find. And remember Bitcoin isn't anonymous so you can't reliably hide in it.

P.S. if the quality of my prose is declining, it is because I've been awake for 20 hours and forehead is ready to meet keyboard.

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March 22, 2014, 06:33:48 AM
 #69

Mate get some rest, wake up and stay away from your monitor for a good week.

This "game" of "wanna be' investor/tycoon really is just wasting your life and money!

You know like me its all B.S. so why even be absorbed in this hypothetical monitory race.

The real world doesn't give a shit about cryptocurrency, it is simply fly shit on a basketball and always will be.

Use your god given talents for something positive for yourself and those close to you.

The rewards are tenfold that of this daydream payout that unfortunately most people around here are obsessed in!

All BITRIP is, is one giant poker machine! The more you put in the more you lose!

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March 22, 2014, 08:24:42 AM
 #70

I don't think it's so much the toxicity right now as much as lack of any major positive news. We haven't really had anything like "Overstock accepts Bitcoin" or "famous enterpreneur announces his support of Bitcoin" for quite a while. To be fair we haven't had that much bad things either since the Gox fiasco, but right now BTC is just really really quiet and I think some people are getting a bit frustrated.

All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.
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March 22, 2014, 09:20:26 AM
 #71

It did, the first time it received media coverage and popularity among the general public everyone thought it was a ponzi scheme and anybody who talked about Bitcoin was kinda discriminated
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March 22, 2014, 10:42:01 AM
Last edit: March 22, 2014, 02:24:53 PM by AnonyMint
 #72

mattboldfield, I'd like to hear your reaction to the following even if you disagree with me?

I'm obsessed because if you read my Mad Max and CoinCube's Economic Devastation threads, I believe we are going into a very severe, global economic implosion starting around 2016ish to worsen until 2020 and beyond, due to precisely $223 trillion in global total debt (not including China's huge shadow debt economy backed by copper, etc and other off balance obligations in every country that are lurking) i.e. 313% of global GDP, very roughly a $quadrillion in derivatives ("weapons of mass destruction"- Buffet), and very roughly a $quadrillion of unfunded social welfare promises made by governments. According to the IMF, this is at least a 200 year high in debt-to-GDP ratio, and I am confident it is the worst ever in recorded history since Mesopotamia when all factors mentioned above are included.

Because of the coincident and concomitant technological unemployment (predicted by the prestigious Oxford University at Cambridge, England to destroy 47% of all existing jobs before 2032), there is no way to grow GDP to pay this off. I explained that those who argue that debt is merely an accounting ledger item and thus can be quickly erased and restarted anew are ignorant. So the only choice we have is which sector of society to charge this write-down to. The governments have made it clear with their actions of austerity, increased taxes, and depositor bail-in plans, that they intend to charge the $quadrillions of write-downs to private wealth and not to the elite who own most of the wealth who run the bankster usury system (which is also the government via power vacuum capture of democracy). Imploding private wealth means the government won't have anything remaining to tax. Do you remember what Hitler did (and many other examples in history) when he couldn't raise revenues to pay for his universal health care system? Euthanasia. Y'all do know I hope that Hitler was printing his own money and doing massive public works programs such as the Autobahn.

This looks like it can downward spiral into a Dark Age. That affects all of us.

The only solution I see is for there to be a way for the entrepreneurs who make the world prosperous to have a way to hide their wealth from government so they can continue generating prosperity. Gold won't work, because gold can't be transacted very anonymously over distance nor without being snooped on by those you are transacting with, and this is why every move away from fractional reserves to gold always implodes the economy as the velocity of money plummets (it is down by 50% since 2007). Even the 1800s gold standard was based on fractional reserves at the private unregulated banks (and no Andrew Jackson didn't stop this and concomitant frequent bank runs which is why we ended up with a central bank later), we were not using physical gold as money.

So I devised a (as of yet unimplemented, unpublished) solution for crypto-currency that is reliably anonymous and fixes many of the other problems that I mentioned about Bitcoin.

I believe this solution might save us. And so thus I am obsessed with surviving. I hope you are too.

That makes me a troll? Huh

P.S. On the more conspiratorial perspective, I also see that Bitcoin's design takes us directly to a world government digital fiat which is the 666 tracking system. Not that I necessary believe the Bible's Revelation, but I don't want to live in a world where we are slaves to a top-down control from Brussels.





Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

+1

Again I pointed out that this is not applicable to the masses.

Besides, by the time you can get the masses to adopt anything it will be owned by the government through regulation.

There is no way to get the masses to help you the millionaires. You are trapped. I am trying to help you, but you are obstinate (because you are not a polymath). And thus deserve your fate.

because of the $223 trillion debt the government is going to confiscate all the wealth it can find. And remember Bitcoin isn't anonymous so you

Why are you touting the debt as if it made some kind of justification for enslavement?

Since you are a Christian, I will explain from that perspective (I could also explain from an atheist perspective too).

Huh, your Bible in Proverbs says "borrower is slave to the lender".

Do you really think the masses can run up this huge debt which enabled them to abandon God and run abortions to 40 million a year, birth control to pervasive from age 15, and for women to no longer need men because they are supported by the state, and for there to be no enslavement?

I suggest you (re-)read carefully 1 Samuel 8 then 1 Samuel 15.

- (fiat) Money is debt. They never gave us anything valuable when we borrowed from them. The new money was just created at the moment of loan, and was deducted as inflation from everyone else. They did not give us gold, land, or real goods. We supplied them to them all the time. It is important for people to realize that this debt is a mirage, people are free, and they have received nothing that they should rightfully pay back, quite the contrary.

Simpleton mistake. Complete failure to understand economics of fitness, c.f. this post:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg5837161#msg5837161

I have heard you bragging that you would rather die before giving them your hard earned silver? What makes you now so eager to file tax returns and claim the end of bitcoin because filing tax returns becomes so difficult? Can you only be enslaved by trickery and not by force? Can you see why it amuses me?

I am talking about what the masses will do.

If you want something only for us, then Bitcoin has the wrong design and can't protect our anonymity.

If you want to fight in the open, then you need the masses on your side. And the masses always go to the side of the banksters and the leaders of the power vacuum of democracy.

Again read 1 Samuel 8, so you can understand.





Oh God! (sic)  -- the Quality TA thread is reduced to quoting scripture to show the time of BTC is not upon us.

The time of BTC is upon us if we accept that the masses will use it if offchain regulated businesses provide fixes to all the useability problems with Bitcoin onchain (e.g. 10 - 60 minute transactions, private keys stolen, etc).

But then we give up decentralization and have a global fiat- the antithesis of the idealism purported to be the reason we are investing.

And if we are investing simply to get rich, note that if the regulators can track everything, this is no solution to the coming massive confisations 2016ish as we descend into the global economic conflagrapocalpyse.

Oh I know you don't care as long as you can make a speculative buck in the meantime, who cares if it is all going to be taken from you in a couple of years any way.

Hamster much.  Roll Eyes

P.S. I know there are other possible outcomes. The global debt could just disappear. You could hide your gold deep in the forests of Finland. And all other such illogical fantasies.




http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-22366

Quote from: AnonyMint
What is a better solution? In the 1800s, we had unregulated private banks who took physical gold on deposit and created fractional reserves. This lead to frequent bank runs and depressions. It annealed better because the defaults were more often before growing too large, but unfortunately humanity loves debt so then eventually JP Morgan had to bail out the USA. And then they created the Fed, originally intended just to be a corporate backstop but over time it morphed into this monstrosity, because the people demand and love debt. We can't change human nature.

In 2009, Satoshi published a solution to the Byzantine General's problem (unsolved since 1975) which enables decentralized consensus without requiring any reputation nor trust. This enables a decentralized ledger (a.k.a. "block chain") of money accounts. If all transactions are done on this ledger, there can't exist fractional reserves. But once again the people instead of favoring decentralized exchanges that work on the block chain, chose to trust centralized reputation that operates offchain, e.g. Mt.Gox and look what happened a repeat of the 1800s failure. So if the masses are not smart enough to use the technology correctly, then the government will be tasked with regulation of the offchain fractional reserves and thus once again we are back to fiat and central control.

Also Bitcoin will end up losing its decentralized nature because it isn't anonymous, and the masses will demand the government given them free services and debt is always future taxation, so the government can't give up its demand for "transparency" in all financial transactions, i.e. they must know who we are at all times.

So tell me what is the solution? I said the technologists will weigh in on this matter, and note I am one of (the most astute and prolific among) them. Stay tuned...

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March 22, 2014, 02:20:50 PM
 #73

there's a lot of negative vibes coming from BTC all of time Grin
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March 22, 2014, 06:21:53 PM
 #74

I don't think it's so much the toxicity right now as much as lack of any major positive news. We haven't really had anything like "Overstock accepts Bitcoin" or "famous enterpreneur announces his support of Bitcoin" for quite a while. To be fair we haven't had that much bad things either since the Gox fiasco, but right now BTC is just really really quiet and I think some people are getting a bit frustrated.

I'm a bit frustrated to see it so quiet, since I like a certain amount of movement in the markets.
BTC is getting close to $550, maybe we can see a good bounce to ~$700?

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March 22, 2014, 06:38:48 PM
 #75

"Be greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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March 22, 2014, 08:44:34 PM
 #76

"Be greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"Bitcoin is a mirage." Warren Buffet

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March 22, 2014, 08:53:44 PM
 #77


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March 22, 2014, 10:41:59 PM
 #78

"Be greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"Bitcoin is a mirage." Warren Buffet

Sounds fearful. His slip is showing. Very surprising for an old card player.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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March 22, 2014, 11:16:36 PM
 #79

"Be greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"Bitcoin is a mirage." Warren Buffet

Sounds fearful. His slip is showing. Very surprising for an old card player.

"mirage" is a close cousin to "miracle"

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March 22, 2014, 11:42:37 PM
Last edit: March 22, 2014, 11:53:10 PM by mattboldfield
 #80

@AnonyMint

I think you seriously need a dam good holiday! I mean great observation, dialect and proposition but the "what if" factor is obviously consuming you.
Also being on this criminal site will drag anyone down!
I went through a stage of hopelessly thinking the world is doomed, made me depressed and think what's the point of it all,  I also thought about the solutions of survival.

BUT theirs not much you can do about it. All this things were put in place a very long time ago. Its really ends up coming down to being stronger and not letting these things get to you.
Don't join in on the hopelessness of it all, you need to clarify yourself, get back to nature or something, feel like a kid again, uknow what I mean? Be your old self again! Turn off that shit on the monitor!

I found anger a great release, yes I know your all laughing their haha, but the frustration of how incompetent people are becoming, well it just started pissing me off!
I just decided to make my own stand again and not be caught up in this evolution of anything goes and re-establish the principles that make me me.
Just because people are turning into lost souls, well screw that, I'd rather go down fighting for my principles than be a spineless jellyfish like most are now days.

You must breath and get off this channel of uncertainty and realize their are a lots of people thinking the same as you, but an observation you must leave it at. Be grateful you were born with insight.
The average Joe hasn't got a bloody idea about anything anymore, but man if you have half a brain, and its working Smiley its a walk in the park out their today!
But you must be confident and know where your coming from.

It can also take some time to feel that way when you've been fucked over too! But stay good and it will all work out. That's what I like about life!


Arrr come on man, Billie Ocean told us years ago remember.....
"When the going gets tough.......well you know the rest......


To my new band of trolls following, hi guys! please die painfully!



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