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Author Topic: What will the "steady state" look like?  (Read 731 times)
JorgeStolfi
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December 10, 2013, 04:38:32 AM
 #1

Let's assume that the bitcoin "network" will be alive 10 years from now.  What will it look like?

Let's say that the "material value" of a bitcoin, at a certain moment, is the amount of materal goods one could buy with it at that moment. (This notion is a bit fuzzy because the demand for different goods like cars and houses may vary in different ways. But we may ignore that problem for this discussion.)

10 years ffrom now, the material value of a bitcoin, like that of any commodity, is likely to be some predictable "trend" plus some unpredictable "noise".   How big will be the noise compared to the trend?   That is, by how much can one expect the material value of a bitcoin to change in addition to the predictable trend in the next hour? In the next day? Month? Year?

What will be the prevailing predictable trend for the material value of a bitcoin:  constant? Increasing (deflation)?  Decreasing (inflation)?  By how much % per year?

Since there are only ~20 million bitcoins, if 2 billion people are using bitcoins, the average wallet will have 1/100 of a bitcoin.  How much would that buy, if translated in today's dollars?

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success.
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December 10, 2013, 12:24:00 PM
 #2

Since there are only ~20 million bitcoins, if 2 billion people are using bitcoins, the average wallet will have 1/100 of a bitcoin.  How much would that buy, if translated in today's dollars?

You will not hear this from Krugman or Bernanke, and it is the bitcoin secret, but only for you, my special friend, i can reveal:

It depends on what value those 2 billion people will want to have in reserve. Yes, if they first want it to correspond to a hamburger, the value will be just enough to buy 2 billion hamburgers. If they all change their minds and want it to be a week worth of living cost, it will increase in value to 2 billion weeks of subsistence.

Magic, say you? Try it out in your head, imagine that only the first person changes his mind. He will start to save, thereby depressing the price of the hamburger and at the same time marginally increase the value of the bitcoins. Then the next guy will do the same, reducing the price of the hamburger (reducing the value as measured in money), then the next guy... Since not everyone does this at the same time, the value increase will be unevenly distributed. Obviously, the first one will experience after some time that his savings have  grown to be more than he requires, therefore he will spend to reduce it to the required amount of value while the process is still in progress. Roughly the same amount of hamburgers can be produced and consumed while the process is going on, and after it is completed. They consume the same, but now they are all rich. That is what I call a better world.


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porc
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December 10, 2013, 12:34:19 PM
 #3

There will be no steady state.

This pyramid will collapse at some point.

Boom Bust.

How high can it go? 20.000/bitcoin, 15.000/bitcoin, 10.000/bitcoin ? 5000/bitcoin? 2000/bitcoin?  I dont know.

I will be revisiting this forum when the crash has occured.
Zarathustra
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December 10, 2013, 12:46:33 PM
 #4

There will be no steady state.

This pyramid will collapse at some point.

Boom Bust.

How high can it go? 20.000/bitcoin, 15.000/bitcoin, 10.000/bitcoin ? 5000/bitcoin? 2000/bitcoin?  I dont know.

I will be revisiting this forum when the crash has occured.

Civilization (= collectivism) is always boom/bust. Nothing new about that. Only uncivilized human being was
comparatively stable.
porc
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December 10, 2013, 01:18:04 PM
 #5

There will be no steady state.

This pyramid will collapse at some point.

Boom Bust.

How high can it go? 20.000/bitcoin, 15.000/bitcoin, 10.000/bitcoin ? 5000/bitcoin? 2000/bitcoin?  I dont know.

I will be revisiting this forum when the crash has occured.

Civilization (= collectivism) is always boom/bust. Nothing new about that. Only uncivilized human being was
comparatively stable.

Civilization =/ collectivism.

Stop babbling.

Bitcoins Value: 0 Current market price: 922 ...
Erdogan
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December 10, 2013, 01:37:24 PM
 #6

Since there are only ~20 million bitcoins, if 2 billion people are using bitcoins, the average wallet will have 1/100 of a bitcoin.  How much would that buy, if translated in today's dollars?

You will not hear this from Krugman or Bernanke, and it is the bitcoin secret, but only for you, my special friend, i can reveal:

It depends on what value those 2 billion people will want to have in reserve. Yes, if they first want it to correspond to a hamburger, the value will be just enough to buy 2 billion hamburgers. If they all change their minds and want it to be a week worth of living cost, it will increase in value to 2 billion weeks of subsistence.

Magic, say you? Try it out in your head, imagine that only the first person changes his mind. He will start to save, thereby depressing the price of the hamburger and at the same time marginally increase the value of the bitcoins. Then the next guy will do the same, reducing the price of the hamburger (reducing the value as measured in money), then the next guy... Since not everyone does this at the same time, the value increase will be unevenly distributed. Obviously, the first one will experience after some time that his savings have  grown to be more than he requires, therefore he will spend to reduce it to the required amount of value while the process is still in progress. Roughly the same amount of hamburgers can be produced and consumed while the process is going on, and after it is completed. They consume the same, but now they are all rich. That is what I call a better world.


And..you can not have this with unsound money. Just listen in to the private chat of the money printers:

"Hehe... now the minions start saving again... we can print some to offset the hamburger price depreciation...then we will have all the savings...and while we are at it, lets print even 2 1/2 percent more than that...hihi...life is good"


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Zarathustra
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December 10, 2013, 01:44:32 PM
 #7

There will be no steady state.

This pyramid will collapse at some point.

Boom Bust.

How high can it go? 20.000/bitcoin, 15.000/bitcoin, 10.000/bitcoin ? 5000/bitcoin? 2000/bitcoin?  I dont know.

I will be revisiting this forum when the crash has occured.

Civilization (= collectivism) is always boom/bust. Nothing new about that. Only uncivilized human being was
comparatively stable.

Civilization =/ collectivism.

Stop babbling.

Bitcoins Value: 0 Current market price: 922 ...

You really know nothing about anything. Since humans are civilized, they don't live in self-sufficient communities within Dunbar's Number anymore. They live collectivized, paternalized as divided labor slaves within hypercollectives (labor division) beyond Dunbar's Numbers: hypercollectives of the Millions.

Current value of an ounce of Gold 2.0: 0.75 of an ounce of Gold.
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