How to Recognize a Bubble (for the stock market.... see any similarities?)

[Honeypot]

For cryptocurrencies, I think that list could use another one between 3 and 4:

Idea draws in amateur 'heroes' and 'revolutionaries' from inexperienced backgrounds with delusions of grandeur, imbuing the investor with a false sense of 'mission' or 'camaraderie' that seems to override the 'petty' concerns of personal greed and self-congratulations.


I really wonder, how many of the so-called libertarians and political/economic experts on this forum actually ever held a position of real power in their respective national governments/financial institutions? In fact, how many of them have actually experienced true political, financial and social power that those who move nations and policies employ on a daily basis? Have they actually experienced the position and power of those they claim to 'rise up against'?

I have only seen glimpses of them, and never experienced them personally. I don't think reading Ayn Rand gives me a moral guide to judge what I have not experienced. But throw in a new currency idea that you can use to 'fite da powa' and all of a sudden every monkey on a typewriter is a goddamn che guevarra.

Also, I hope everyone's joking about this 'illuminati' bullshit. I question the motivation of such talk more than the content, but still the content is pretty damn foolish on its own.


On the other hand, as many of stated, I believe the concept of cryptocurrency is a cat out of the bag. Whatever direction in whatever form it goes from this point on, with or without bitcoin, crypto is here to stay and earn its place in the world.

But before that it will have to adjust itself to some realities. Bubbles will pop.

[shields]

I think what this tells us is that Bitcoin has characteristics that make it prone to become a bubble. It does not tell is if it has become a bubble yet or not. The bubble might be only starting when it goes above 10k per coin for example.

Also remember that becoming a bubble does not make something a scam or worthless. Real estate markets often bubble, but housing always has value and utility in general.

[Ibian]

First we have to determine if there is in fact a bubble. The burden of proof is on the accuser.

[kireinaha]

First we have to determine if there is in fact a bubble. The burden of proof is on the accuser.

There's no "burden of proof" because nobody can declare whether bitcoin is a bubble or not, unless they own a time machine. Viewing in retrospect is key here, which we simply can't do yet.

[Frozenlock]

Are you out Frozen?

I am. (But I profited awesomely form this rise.  )

[Frozenlock]

Hi Frozenlock

So ardana is retired now?

Worst

Ardana was never me to begin with.
He's just some other guy. I have no idea why he's using my picture. Huge man crush I suppose.  

Edit: this guy is a top fud spreader who staunchly said that btc wouldn't see 100$ again this summer. Be careful listening to him.

Tan tan taaaan!

Since the market took a pleasure in showing me how wrong I was, I decided to learn from Masterluc's teacher (Waveaddict).

No prediction here. Just a warning.
Redditors are throwing money at this hoping to become rich overnight...

[Wekkel]

The force says: no buyback before $400.

[GriTBitS]

bitcoin can grow forever because there are multiply ways to get it like selling goods and services.... You dont just have to buy it! Think about it!!!! Yes if the onlything i could do with a bitcoin is trade it for cash then yes I would be like hmmm how much higher can this thing go, but when you can trade something for a fraction of it... It has potential to go to the moon and beyond. And goods and services will just keep getting cheaper and cheaper.... Will be like Thiland in the US... and Thiland x 100 in Thiland! Since they will be the last to jump on board. So quit with the F#cking bubble shit already, Sell you coins or the 1 coin you have and leave! I will need a gardner,a butler, and maid in the future so dont buy any bitcoins and sell the ones you have!

[jeppe]

This is interesting and useful but as all the others say BTC Is NOT A STOCK and will never be one.

[hieroglyph]

They say you can tell a bubble when the taxi driver is talking about the stock haha that one always makes me laugh.  don't see how this relates to the current Bitcoin price but that is just an opinion.

[Essex343]

This is interesting and useful but as all the others say BTC Is NOT A STOCK and will never be one.

ok. a lot of people say this, though, without adequately explaining how its price movement does and will differ, specifically. in other words, it is an excuse to do no analysis whatsoever.

[kireinaha]

This is interesting and useful but as all the others say BTC Is NOT A STOCK and will never be one.

ok. a lot of people say this, though, without adequately explaining how its price movement does and will differ, specifically. in other words, it is an excuse to do no analysis whatsoever.

Glad to see someone else calling people out on this bullshit. Just because bitcoin isn't a company issued stock doesn't mean that it won't react to the same market psychology and supply/demand forces.

[terman45x]

Buble is if some stock or commodity is overvalued. Bitcoin is now undervalued, so you cant see buble now

[kireinaha]

Buble is if some stock or commodity is overvalued. Bitcoin is now undervalued, so you cant see buble now

On what basis is it undervalued?

[Essex343]

Buble is if some stock or commodity is overvalued. Bitcoin is now undervalued, so you cant see buble now

On what basis is it undervalued?

yes, this is another one of those assertions.....

[terman45x]

Buble is if some stock or commodity is overvalued. Bitcoin is now undervalued, so you cant see buble now

On what basis is it undervalued?

On my prediction Bitcoin used as prefered payment network on internet in few years

[hollowframe]

Buble is if some stock or commodity is overvalued. Bitcoin is now undervalued, so you cant see buble now

On what basis is it undervalued?

On my prediction Bitcoin used as prefered payment network on internet in few years

pretty ambiguous. not saying it wont happen, but.....

[Ibian]

Just look at what it is. bitcoin is an online payment protocol, a store of value, a currency. That makes it as valuable as gold, paypal, and fiat put together. Also unhackable (by brute force, up to the individual whether or not to install trojans and keyloggers), and can't be confiscated without your cooperation, so more valuable in fact.

All that's needed is awareness. So, yeah, undervalued.

[Mirsad]

Just look at what it is. bitcoin is an online payment protocol, a store of value, a currency. That makes it as valuable as gold, paypal, and fiat put together. Also unhackable (by brute force, up to the individual whether or not to install trojans and keyloggers), and can't be confiscated without your cooperation, so more valuable in fact.

All that's needed is awareness. So, yeah, undervalued.

Undervalued compared to possible future uses.
Right now bitcoins are overvalued and not a small amount.

Just check this out:

Transactions:
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address

Around 40k @ jan 2013
Now: 60k @ dez 2013
Peak: 100k

Hmm 50% more transactions.


Just let's check the price.

http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-price?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

13$ @ jan 2013
890$ @ dez 2013
1200$ peak

We have a 6750% price increase!

Bitcoin is pure speculation. But that's fun -> great profits to take.

[piramida]

same number of transactions, much much greater amount of wealth transacted. you should multiply the first graph (# of transactions) by the second (price) to get approximation at the growth of wealth being sent over bitcoin network.

150-500 million usd daily volume.