Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop?

[Edward50]

Please only serious posts by bears only. I need a discussion on how far you think this price will drop.

I am slowly buying bitcoins for non-bitcoin investments that are somewhat price related to bitcoins. I am only investing in non-bitcoin investments which are still cheap even if bitcoin falls below $300.

I personally believe the price is still way too high and all the signs are pointing for a big drop. Volume is also super low which usually means further drops are coming. Bitcoin has been nothing but weak the last few days and I expected the price to be in the $700's when I woke up this morning.

How far do you think this will one go until the price finally stabilizes? I am thinking around $300-500, since I always undershoot it will probably fall in the $600's.

What are you guys thinking? Where do you see bitcoin finally falling and stabilizing at?

[ElectricMucus]

I have no idea.

[Edward50]

I have no idea.

Why is that? Because the price has been so unpredictable lately or you think it can really go either way?

[shadowninjax]

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

[accord01]

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

This kind of logic never really works out.

[ElectricMucus]

What happened is that the bubble could have gone on for a little while longer and pop naturally. But resistance from investors which had gold parity as a target prevented that. But I don't know how many of these investors are and if they will deplete the demand or not.

[Edward50]

700 seems plausible during these holidays. But once new year comes over and people start working, expect it to rise to new heights.

This kind of logic never really works out.

Hey accord01, you wrote these reasons in another post about why you think it is going to fall. How far do you give it?

1) double top at ~1200, closing in on triple top

2) no more money coming in from china

3) latest rally/bounce overbought like crazy

4) over 7 million bought is funds from bitfinex leveraged positions going long.

5) There is absolutely not enough new money to sustain this rally...

6) heavy hitters have their fingers ready for the trigger, as well as smart bulls and all the bears.

[pbody]

Seriously. If you want in the market, you will surely get a chance for cheap(er) coins in the next few months. Don't be greedy and wait for an unrealistic bottom or you will miss out when it starts going back up again.

What would an unrealistic bottom be? $600?

[TERA]

The question is will china's next leg down find support above or below its previous bottom of 3800 and if it is below, how low will it drag the other markets? At what point do gox and stamp declare themselves independent of china and set their own support?

[ajax3592]

In my opinion if it falls to levels like ~550, there is sure-shot possibility of it going to ~200 levels due to panic.

[Edward50]

Seriously. If you want in the market, you will surely get a chance for cheap(er) coins in the next few months. Don't be greedy and wait for an unrealistic bottom or you will miss out when it starts going back up again.

What would an unrealistic bottom be? $600?

I think it could easily fall to $600. And it has fallen that low after the $1200 high.

You have to take certain things into account here. Less than a year ago bitcoin traded at $13. For most of 2012 it traded less than $13.
Now it has jumped up to crazy levels. Has the demand really increased that much? Are the buyers there to continue to pay these high prices for coins and cash out the people who want out?

New money entering into the market is definitely not the reason why the price is so high. It is ridiculously hard to get money safely into bitcoins and especially at high amounts. I know because I recently had to do it, and this was after Dwolla stopped being a way to transfer money.

The high price bitcoin reached will have many bitcoin holders hoarding their coins as the price drops and will cause the price to stay higher. This is really the hardest thing to predict for a bottom is how current holders value their coins and if they will simply just not sell them.

I am thinking if the price starts to decline more into the $700's many people will wake up and realize that bitcoin price has just reached too high and they are quickly losing their chances to cash out when the price is still ridiculously high.









 

[HigsonPP]

hard to say where hard support is. we rose so far so fast that my feeling is that support levels are not established. sma200 daily is near april 2013 top, i think that is the absolute bottom. this is after a prolonged downtrend though, kind of doubt we make it that far but possible. otherwise maybe 380-450.

[Edward50]

My guess: a lot of people will chose 400-500 as the final bottom and they will be dead wrong.

Wrong in that it will bottom lower or wrong in that it will never reach that point?

[Qoheleth]

If I'm insufficiently ursine to participate in this thread, just say the word and I'll see myself out.

It seems to me that we are very unlikely to return to double-digits during this particular downward trend, for three reasons. First, that it would constitute a worse run of pessimism than was seen even in 2011 (when there was a good reason to argue that as a financial instrument BTC had used up its 15 minutes of fame forever). Second, because $100 was a strong line of support during the Q1 bubble; flash-crashes during the run-up would remain above it, and even post-pop double-digit prices were only in evidence during the most emotionally deflated periods. Third, that the semi-stable base for the Q4 bubble was around $125, and previous bubble-pops in Bitcoin have never crossed below their bases (whereas double-digits would require crossing 20% below that line).

All the above said, however, I think prices below $500/coin are probable (going by the depth of the immediate China sell-off, which is probably no shallower than what awaits us), and as low as $250 are still possible enough to be worth mentioning.

[humanitee]

Probably hit $.50? Maybe $.00001?

[Miz4r]

My guess: a lot of people will chose 400-500 as the final bottom and they will be dead wrong.

Wrong in that it will bottom lower or wrong in that it will never reach that point?

People are talking about 400-500 now like they were talking about 40-50 back in June. Everyone seems to be aiming for the same spot, so if you want to actually get in on the bottom you probably need to add at least 100-200 dollars more to that. I actually thought we'd see $450 again at first, but now I really am  starting to doubt we go down that far. We may see $600 again, and that's the best realistic bears can hope for imo. I am neither bull nor bear on the short term and I'm also not going to sell any of my bitcoins. I am trying to catch the bottom though with some fresh fiat, and I have been quite successful with that so far.

[piramida]

my lowest buy order is at 650, but I'd be happy even if only the 750 order would get filled. work on it, bears.

[WompRat]

I thought $30 was overvalued, $60 was crazy and $120 was cloud cuckoo.  I lost words to describe the market after $240, so I have no idea, but I assume by 'bitcoins for non-bitcoin investments' you are talking about alt coins?  Surely that is an even worse investment.  I am all for a bit of Quark riding for fun, but if Bitcoin falls they all fall, plus you get a bit of added risk thrown in for good measure.  For the most part penny stocks are a penny for a reason,they are not a canny investment that everyone else has missed.

[Miz4r]

My guess: a lot of people will chose 400-500 as the final bottom and they will be dead wrong.

Wrong in that it will bottom lower or wrong in that it will never reach that point?

People are talking about 400-500 now like they were talking about 40-50 back in June. Everyone seems to be aiming for the same spot, so if you want to actually get in on the bottom you probably need to add at least 100-200 dollars more to that. I actually thought we'd see $450 again at first, but now I really am  starting to doubt we go down that far. We may see $600 again, and that's the best realistic bears can hope for imo. I am neither bull nor bear on the short term and I'm also not going to sell any of my bitcoins. I am trying to catch the bottom though with some fresh fiat, and I have been quite successful with that so far.

Yes but it could be the opposite also. You place a buy order at 550 to beat the crowd and it finally goes to 300. We will see more bulltraps on the way for sure.

I can't say that's impossible, but I believe it's unlikely. And it's better to aim too high than too low, those who placed buy orders below $50 in June last Summer and then saw the price bounce up from $65 and didn't panic buy back in thinking it was a bull trap are not as well off as those who bought at $80 on the way down and then just kept their coins and waited patiently for the downtrend to reverse. But everyone makes their own choices, we can't all be on the winning side.

[HigsonPP]

My guess: a lot of people will chose 400-500 as the final bottom and they will be dead wrong.

Wrong in that it will bottom lower or wrong in that it will never reach that point?

People are talking about 400-500 now like they were talking about 40-50 back in June. Everyone seems to be aiming for the same spot, so if you want to actually get in on the bottom you probably need to add at least 100-200 dollars more to that. I actually thought we'd see $450 again at first, but now I really am  starting to doubt we go down that far. We may see $600 again, and that's the best realistic bears can hope for imo. I am neither bull nor bear on the short term and I'm also not going to sell any of my bitcoins. I am trying to catch the bottom though with some fresh fiat, and I have been quite successful with that so far.

Yes but it could be the opposite also. You place a buy order at 550 to beat the crowd and it finally goes to 300. We will see more bulltraps on the way for sure.

I can't say that's impossible, but I believe it's unlikely. And it's better to aim too high than too low, those who placed buy orders below $50 in June last Summer and then saw the price bounce up from $65 and didn't panic buy back in thinking it was a bull trap are not as well off as those who bought at $80 on the way down and then just kept their coins and waited patiently for the downtrend to reverse. But everyone makes their own choices, we can't all be on the winning side.

yep, gotta do that risk reward analysis..... setting sights at another price halving = coins doubled = pretty tempting...